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October 24, 2011 |  5 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Time to Call China's Bluff on Environmental Regulation

Jason Naselli: China’s new environmental regulations on mineral mining are seen by many as a ploy to inflict economic costs on competitors. But they can also be an avenue to open up dialogue between China and the West on environmental policy and our approach to global resource problems.

Certain elements of the conservative foreign policy world, especially in the US, never miss a chance to emphasize “the China threat”, almost as if they are uncomfortable living in a world without a concrete, traditional enemy to face off with (and write articles castigating). So when China radically revised its environmental regulations on the mining of rare earth metals last year, which also had the effect of driving prices sky high, the outcry over “economic warfare” and the need to “secure” our resource supply was predictable. But behind the bluster, do they have a point?

Rare earth metals, with names like Terbium, Erbium, and Rhenium, are by-products of base metals and an essential component of most high tech electronics, from consumer-grade mobile phone and sat nav to solar panels to fighter jets. Also, China currently produces 95% of the world’s supply of these metals. You can see where this is going; that’s a lot of power to have over production, especially of important equipment that powers military and security systems. With that kind of monopoly, China essentially has a stranglehold on key Western industries, and the ability to damage them (or make them pay a lot more) if they wanted.

This is what critics argue is going on with China’s new regulations, which impose export restrictions and very un-Chinese high environmental standards and have had the effect of driving rare earth metal prices up 40% or more. They decry a monopoly and say the Chinese government is simply trying to lure more foreign consumers of these metals to produce their goods directly in China. This certainly may all be true, and such a targeted action on the part of China’s regulators (there appears to be no overarching review of environmental practices in the works) lends credence to the idea that this is essentially economic aggression.

But this doesn’t change the fact that it is also, on the surface, a move towards environmental responsibility, something that Western governments and NGOs have been calling for for years. This is a chance to call China’s bluff: to engage them on environmental issues and praise their progress.

In a report presented to the US Congress this summer by the Center for a New American Security, it was made clear that the US and other industrialized Western countries will have to diversify their rare earth supply in the coming years anyway; an easy conclusion to see. It also noted that while China produces 95% of the current product, they actually only hold around one-third of the actual available rare earth deposits, and until this past decade, the US was a major miner of these metals. There are still vast domestic resources out there; the production has been undermined by the cheaper (and often extralegal) Chinese operations, but can and, the CNAS argues, should be reactivated. So it is both necessary and possible to move off this dependency: why not seize the moment now, when it can be paired with an engagement on another critical issue (and in the process, potentially thwart the very economic aggression that so many are convinced of)?

Where one engagement starts, others follow: actors need not agree on much or even be engaging for the same reasons for the dialogue to have an effect. In this case, resource scarcity and overarching environmental issues are something that will affect all countries and would best be dealt with by a global response; it is not unreasonable to assume that China and western nations may find they share more concerns than they realized. But where they might spend years otherwise engaged in trying to not give up relative economic advantages, opening a dialogue now might allow us to start early on tackling these issues.

So when you see someone calling for an aggressive stance against China, remember there are other options. This doesn't even require trust in China. It just needs the acceleration of a process that has to happen anyway and subtly wise politicking.

Jason Naselli is an editor at Atlantic Community.

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Joshua  Clapp

October 25, 2011

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Jason,

Thanks for the timely contribution, especially in light of China’s largest producer of rare earth metals recently enacting a one-month suspension of production.

While some observers certainly do cast China as an ever-imminent threat, this certainly does not mean that certain Chinese actions are not aggressive. This recent move of suspending production, coupled with restriction on exports and supposed environmental regulations, is likely a somewhat aggressive stance, a kind of economic maneuver to develop China’s domestic rare earth metals industry. Such policies fit in nicely with China’s attempts to move into supplying high-end finished products and not just raw materials or low-end goods.

Few countries have the capacity for the beginning stages of the rare earth metals supply chain. I have read the U.S. could take as long as 15 years to recreate a domestic supply chain. I am sure other countries would need time as well. So even as higher prices spur investment in new areas of the world, China will continue to have a stranglehold on manufacturing rare earth metals at least in the short-term.

Due to these factors, I am not sure that engaging China on environmental issues would necessarily thwart this type of ‘aggression’ at the present time, especially since no country has sufficient means of replacing Chinese imports. In fact, the logic of energy security could dictate for some nations that China shouldn’t be adopting these environmental policies in the first place, if those same policies lead to a lack of sufficient supplies for consumer nations.

Nevertheless, environmental regulations are naturally a good thing. They internalize the negative externalities of pollution – something much needed in China. However, instead of praising China, calling China’s bluff should probably entail acknowledging China’s actions as a likely pretense at environmental regulations and an attempt to dominate the rare earths industry. True environmental regulations would further bring Chinese prices of rare earth metals closer in line with a more normal market price and facilitate the economical (re)development of alternative sources of rare earth metals. So in this fashion, environmental issues could indeed tie into the issue of resource scarcity with regard to rare earth metals. But at the moment, China appears to be employing environmental pretensions in order to contribute to that very same resource scarcity.

Regards,

Joshua

 
Christopher John McCartin

October 25, 2011

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This is indeed an interesting and novel way of bringing key environmental issues to international forums that can posses some clout. Given the importance these rare metals hold to industry, in particular (strategically speaking) Military Industry, it is extremely important for the US and Europe to establish sound geo-political strategies to secure these rare commodities.

Despite China having a near monopoly on rare metals, it still only possesses around 37% of proven reserves. Although still a sizeable amount, this does give the US and Europe options to explore to alleviate Chinese influence and encroachment on western interests. Canada and Australia (the former a NATO member, the latter an ally through ANZUS) have adequate reserves and seem eager to capitalize from the inflated prices caused by China’s monopoly, but lack the sufficient infrastructure to compete. While for the US it could be profitable to reopen the mines that had fallen victim to once cheaper Chinese sourced metals.

The search for, and acquisition of, resources has resulted in heated exchanges between global powers throughout history and this case is of course no different. The fallout from China’s rare metal blockade of Japan in 2010 was a promise to the US not to use its current monopoly as a diplomatic or economic weapon; a promise that should be regarded with a degree of skepticism. The author is right to assert that now is the time to open a dialogue to diffuse any possible repeated incidents.

However it could be argued that there is only a limited window of opportunity for such dialogue. While China has its monopoly other powers are going to be at a disadvantage and eager to talk given the oppertunity, while simultaneously they will be spurred on to source their own. When they do this window will close, making co-operation in other aspects of relations with China less likely.
 
Ben  Osborn

October 25, 2011

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I recall an excellent article by Fareek Zakaria comparing United States' recent history with Pax Britannica. It was noted that Britain declined not because of bad politics, but bad economics, whereas the United States, should its decline continue, will be due to bad politics. Zakaria noted that Britain was actually able to enjoy inflated status as a major world power in the first half of the 20th century not in spite of a rising United States, but because of it. Rather than looking to oppose and mitigate growing US power, Britain utilized it and played a role in shaping that power to serve Britain's interest.
Fact: China is rising. While it remains to be seen whether the recent US decline will continue indefinitely, we can be certain that aggressive opposition to all Chinese policies will be futile at best and disastrous at worst to the possibility of a partnership in the future. The United States is currently engaging China in all the wrong ways. Rather than aggression, I agree with this article that engagement and positive reinforcement for good practices are the best strategies. Indeed, the US' future could depend on it a strong relationship with China.
Tags: | US-China relations |
 
Ben  Osborn

October 25, 2011

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Oops! Sorry Fareed.
 
Jason  Naselli

October 28, 2011

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Thanks everyone for your comments.

That's an excellent point Ben, and is a more broadly defined version of the point I'm getting at. There are always opportunities and issues to engage on and we need to be smart and take these opportunities when they present themselves. This certainly is not rolling over, but as you said, constructive engagement can shape a situation to make you better off. Blustery rhetoric or worse, ignoring all evidence and pretending China isn't knocking the US off their perch on some things, will only lead to bad outcomes.
 

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