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October 16, 2008 |  9 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Jens F. Laurson & George A. Pieler

Too Much Political Meddling Will Only Prolong the Financial Crisis

Jens F. Laurson & George A. Pieler: The economic crisis has brought harmony to trans-Atlantic affairs. Europeans might secretly blame the calamity on US “Casino Capitalism,” but they know they are rowing in the same boat and so cooperation is the order of the day. The stock markets treat this as good news now, but it could easily do more harm than good.

Economic crisis management by the state can be necessary, as it is now, to restore trust in the markets and the facilitators of commerce - the lenders. Mis-trust in its psychological aspects sometimes trumps rational behavior. The failure of trust undermines the self-correcting and virtuous power of markets to force efficient economic choices. This can be disastrous and it's where coordinated government intervention comes in: Saving banks and institutions that ‘should' go out of business is a lesser evil than letting credit markets freeze up and watch ‘innocent' actors go bust by the dozen. Governments can also help prevent money-runs of private lenders that would otherwise heighten the crisis.

So what's not to like about Europe and the US walking in lock-step toward economic recovery? Overreaction and overregulation. If governments get carried away in their zeal to reign in ‘run-away market forces' or if they think they can establish the primacy of politics over economics again, then they will prolong the crisis, not get us out of it. The market failed not because of too little politics, but - in part - because of too much political meddling. Greedy Wall Street bankers deserve some blame, but primary objects of outrage should be those politicians who, allied with sympathetic (and self-aggrandizing) bureaucrats, encouraged the sub-prime mortgage market; and the over-eager US Federal Reserve, which tried to spur growth, with unnaturally low interest rates.

Add to this the lack of transparency that resulted from the bundling, splitting, and trading of mortgage backed loans, and the linkage of all financial institutions through the opaque Credit Default Swap market, and you get the current crisis. (Prescribed transparency, when as convoluted as the Sarbanes Oxley law, has proven a snare and delusion. Here, too, it might be beneficial for the industry, which has intense interest in avoiding a repeat of the current crisis, to find proper, workable solutions - like a clearinghouse for the above, hitherto unregulated, transactions.)

If Europe and the US manage to stay in step in resolving the financial crisis, they should take lessons from F. D. Roosevelt in how not to. A recent study by economists at UCLA just calculated that FDR's "New Deal" policies prolonged the Depression by seven years, rather than shortened it. The problem then, as now, was that politicians and voters thought that the market was the problem, that it needed controlling, and that it inherently cannot be trusted. Historians know better: fundamental and fatal blunders in tightening credit, raising taxes, and blocking trade turned a sever down-market into a global collapse. So much for the benefits of hindsight.

Surely we know by now that governments can foster market transparency and accountability, but never control, plan, or dictate the market. The murderous folly that central planning is superior to the sometimes tumultuous forces and failures of the market ought to have been relegated to the same intellectual dustbin as the flat-earth theory and bleeding the patient. Yet central planning is again the rage, amid protestations (at least in the States) that it is ‘only temporary.' Unless enough politicians remember the virtues of a small state and free markets, precisely in this time of crisis, excessive European and US harmony might cost us dearly. What is more, the advent of a transatlantic presumption against free markets spells tragic loss for nations of the developing world most in need of the power of those markets to liberate them from poverty.

Jens F. Laurson is editor in chief of the International Affairs Forum. George A. Pieler is a senior fellow with the Institute for Policy Innovation.

 

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Marek  Swierczynski

October 16, 2008

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The most striking thing in Europe now is that the EU turns out to be quite inefficient in the very field it was created for to manage, ie. market regulation. Neither did it provide sufficient measures to protect the banking system nor had the ability to forsee the impact of the US subprime crisis - which begun to emerge a year ago - on the european market to avoid the domino-effect. This crisis has made the EU almost irrelevant, as all important decisions were made on national state level or in smaller groups (the euro group, the European G8
members) and sometimes in a rather chaotic manner (take Germany as example). It is a great disappointment for the citizens of EU member states and they should ask the MEPs before the European Parliament elections next year what is the EU for if not for greater protection of their wallets.
 
Donald  Stadler

October 16, 2008

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The other thing the crisis exposed is the contradictions within the eurozone. The eurozone pretends to be a cohesive economic entity but at the first crisis falls apart into national entities. Germany won't help bail out Ireland, so Ireland creates big trouble for Germany by guaranteeing all bank deposits.

The euro has two choices. It can be mantained within a relatively small group of countries with similar economies (Germany, France, Nederlands, perhaps Belgium, Spain, and the UK if they could be persuaded to join). At that level it would be useful but not a potential global 'reserve' currency.

The founders of the euro chose to go with a grander version; it was to be the currency for all of Europe. That means a shotgun economic marriage between many countries with widely different varying cultures, economic traditions, languages, and stages of development. The intent is ultimately to create something akin to a European United States, at least in economic aspects.

Unfortunately the contrast between Germany and Greece is much wider than between Maryland and Mississippi. If economic policy hurts Mississippi the citizens of that place can pick up stakes and go to where the jobs are. They arrive speaking the same language and having experience of a similar culture and of course use the same currency. If Greece goes into a depression their mobile citizens cannot decamp to Germany or Denmark with nearly that degree of insousance. To achieve a paneuropean labor market akin ot the US would require an astonishing level of political, linguistic, and even cultural integration - perhaps a century worth of hard work. There does not now exist even the will to try.

In he meantime the euro is causing an astonishing amount of pain in non-core member nations like Greece, Italy, and now perhaps soon Spain and Ireland. These countries may be forced to drop out, or to become associates. They may continue with the euro, but it might be in a relationship similar to that between the US dollar and the Canadia dollar - separate.
 
Jens F. Laurson

October 16, 2008

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Re: Marek Swierczynski

"The most striking thing in Europe now is that the EU turns out to be quite inefficient in the very field it was created for to manage, ie. market regulation."

Market regulation would very, very unlikely been helpful, given the EU's track-record. The last thing we need is more EU regulation. Trying to improve the world every time, making matters worse without (or hardly any) fail.

Nor is it fair or realistic to expect the "EU" - a large body of dysfunctional supra-governmental agencies - to have predicted the US subprime crisis and its impact.

In any case, those who are yelping for "greater protection of their wallets" from the European Parliament (of all places) now, should be aware that over-reaction could mean such thorough protection that not only out-flow from- but also in-flow to those wallets is stopped. The whole purpose of this article is to warn of the knee-jerk reaction of calling for yet more government control... and the first comment does exactly this.

Now the question is: just irony, or deliberate irony?
 
Donald  Stadler

October 16, 2008

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This crisis is not just about the US, or the eurozone. It is about enormous imbalances in the world trading system.

In short - the US needs to become more like Germany, China, and Japan - and Germany, China, and Japan need to become more like the US.

What I mean is that the US needs to put it's people to work and start producing things both to meet internal demand and for export, because this crisis is a clear announcement that the gravy train has ended. We can't continue to finance consumption by borrowing vast sums from abroad - it just won't work. The US is going on a crash consumption diet enforced by the markets. Not only the US, I think there are other countries which essentially needs to do this also. The UK comes to mind, and perhaps other European countries.

What this means for the big exporting countries is that they need to take real steps to increase internal demand to sustain their manufactures in a world where the US can no longer supply infinite quantities of demand. Fiscal policy will need to change. The dollar is going to weaken and stay low for a long time after the crisis is done and we start descending into the recession.

Defense policy will change, I think - though this is more speculative. A poorer US is going to do a lot less in the longer term once we pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Warships will be laid up. Don't expect the troops withdrawn from Europe earlier in the decade to return in any great numbers, either.

A lot of this will come as a relief to many, at least in the short term. In the longer term I think certain lacunae will develop, but don't expect the US to disappear into a phone booth and suddenly reappear in Superman garb. We have learned a lasting lesson since 2001 I think. No, I think various nations will have to work out what their security are, and also what they can live without. What they need - they will have to fund themselves. The US may be willing to contribute in cases where US interests are also served, but this will be driven far more by cold self-interest and far less by ego than in the past.
 
Marek  Swierczynski

October 17, 2008

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Let me just quote from the ECB (European Central Bank) mission statement: "The ECB (...) systematically monitors cyclical and structural developments in the euro-area/EU banking sector and in other financial sectors. The purpose is to assess the possible vulnerabilities in the financial sector, and its resilience to potential shocks"

If the US citizens criticise the FED for failing to act, much of Europe should blame the ECB. Moreover, in the European Commission there are at least 3 commissioners, who should have acted months ago to warn and protect European consumers and banking system.

Forgive me my naivety but people generally demand that institutions and authorities do what they were created for. Otherwise the question is what are they paid for? This is no irony and it doesn't mean we need more regulation, what we need is right regulation and one that is efficiently managed.

The EU was made to do just that and it failed a great deal. Someone will have to take that resposibility. What I meant was that this financial crisis will have political impact across Europe, not only in countries which happen to vote in national elections next year, as it undermined the credibility of the EU institutions.
 
Anna  Wojnilko

October 17, 2008

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I agree that the financial crisis has ruthlessly exposed the institutional limits of the European Union. However, we can’t blame the institutional mess for the fact that EU leaders failed to take collective action and create a joint rescue fund which would have been the best thing to do. The truth is they simply didn’t want to. It seems to me the thing that really prevents the EU from being what it was meant to be is not institutional restraints but lack of solidarity. EU member states don’t seem to believe that what is good for the Union is also good for them, when troubles come everyone looks after their own business. As long as this frame of mind doesn’t change, even the best institutional reforms will not help the EU.


Tags: | EU | financial crisis |
 
Donald  Stadler

October 17, 2008

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There is plenty to criticize about the performnce of the Federal Reserve, or more accurately about the performance of the US Treasury. But in criticizing the performance of the ECB it is very important to recognize that the ECB is not the same as the Federal Reserve even though they are nominally both Central Banks.

The US response is really a tag team of the Fed and the US Treasury, with the Treasury providing massive resources both to the Fed and on it's own. This seems to have been a fairly effective combination.

Part of the problem for the ECB is that it doesn't have an EU Treasury department to colabarate with. It has to work with national governments on an individual basis - and that is pretty slow and provides incomplete coverage. So don't blame the ECB too severely for lacking tools it doesn't have.

That said, there IS one point that the ECB can validly be criticized upon; interest rates are much too high right now. The Bank Of England is even worse; Trans-European interest rates need to come down hard and they need to come down quickly. The world economy is headed for a deep recession. Inflation is dead; interest rates must fall to provide the maximum stimulus.


 
Donald  Stadler

October 17, 2008

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"the fact that EU leaders failed to take collective action and create a joint rescue fund"

Anna, one thing which I never understood before was the amount of time and effort which the EU devotes to joint action and building institutions, but the response to this crisis has opened my eyes to the problem. Collaborations which are almost instinctual in the US system (such as the Fed nd the Treasury working off each other and together to save the market) are incredibly difficult to manage within the EU system.

This is not, I think, due to any lack of ability on the part of the leaders but almost entirely due to the multinational nature of the EU. National interest sticks it's head in everywhere, to the point where the interest of the whole can be almost invisible to national policy makers - because that interest is invisible to their electorates.

The US also has conflists between the parts and the whole, but we tend to be much more identified with the whole than with the parts, to the point where after the first vote on the bailout failed in the House that argument was raised and was decisive in the end, after adding a number of things catering to sectarian interests of course. So we got a national bailout fund, albeit one loaded up with things which perhaps aren't strictly needed.

Some nations in Europe are more devoted to the whole than their parts. Historically Germany has been more devoted to the whole than france has, but they seem to have changed roles durng this crisis, with the French arguing more for a collective response, n the Germans seeming to believe that they can simply retreat behind their national borders and save their own while letting banks in other countries melt down.

I disagree with that POV; I don't think Festung Deutschland can work, because the financial systems are all too intertwined. Even if Germany can remain solid - it is a export-driven economy. If the rest of Europe (or even major parts of it) go through the wringer whom will be left to purchase German exports?

But I may be wrong. Perhaps the thing is to save the banking system in certain core countries, and then later the stable center can send out missionaries to the outlying parts of the EU which have fallen into economic barbarism.
 
Unregistered User

October 22, 2008

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"If the US citizens criticise the FED for failing to act, much of Europe should blame the ECB."

The problem is not that the FED failed to act, it's that it over-acted. (Rather than balancing supply/demand of money, it meddled in money-made policy by setting itself a different goal than supply-management: it went into the business of growth management.

Apart from that, Mr. Stadler's points about the FED / ECB differences are well taken.

Cheers,

RN
 

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