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Abdullah Gul, the embattled Foreign Minister at the heart of Turkey’s recent parliamentary crisis, reaffirmed his determination to run for the presidency after his party’s landslide election victory. In defiance of the army’s clear warnings he declared: “I cannot be expected to ignore the will of the people … The will of the nation is reflected in the election ballots.”

The AKP government’s main challenge is now to keep the pace of democratic reforms afloat without risking violent reaction from the Turkey’s top generals, who are accustomed to meddling in policy-making and agenda-shifting in both the domestic and foreign affairs sphere. The election results serve only to intensify the General Staff’s skepticism of the Erdogan government’s intentions. The 47% of the vote that the AKP commanded translates to 340 seats in the 550 member Turkish Grand National Assembly and will allow the AKP to form a powerful one-party government.

EU-Turkey Relations
Democratic reforms are at the heart of Turkey’s relations with the European Union: Trimming down the military’s preponderance and improving the lot of the numerous minorities living in Anatolia. The EU also expects Erdogan to honor his signature on opening Turkish ports to Cypriot vessels and aircrafts; such a gesture will go a long way towards accepting the legitimacy of the Cypriot government. Indeed, Erdogan’s record on Cyprus has won international appreciation: three years ago, he persuaded previously obstinate Turkish Cypriots to endorse a UN comprehensive Cyprus settlement plan, though it nevertheless fell far short of Greek majority expectations and was rejected.

The ‘Old Europeans’ may be just hiding their aversion to Turkey’s full membership behind the charge of the Turkish military occupation of Cyprus and Ankara’s refusal to recognize the Republic of Cyprus. Whatever the reason behind European skepticism over Turkey’s absorption, it will most likely continue for years to come. And it is bound to upset the ruling elite in Ankara.

Policy Recommendations
A re-invigorated Erdogan will be best advised to persist on the road to reform, to curtail the army’s role by cutting down its size, and drastically reduce military expenditure. This will free his capacity to find political solutions for both the domestic ‘Kurdish Problem’ and the lesser (though equally instrumental to Turkey’s European course) Cyprus problem. The European Union should stand by him and reward his reforms.

The new Turkish government ought to reassure the EU that it is committed to drastically reducing the Turkish garrison in Cyprus with a view to total disengagement, will refrain from the use of violence in settling disputes, and will not invade Iraq. Political problems require political solutions. The use of force can only exacerbate the already tense situation in the region.

Yiorghos Leventis, PhD, is a freelance analyst based in Nicosia, Republic of Cyprus. He taught at New York University Skopje until recently. In 2004-06, he was a JSPS-UNU Postdoctoral Fellow with the Peace & Governance Programme, United Nations University, Tokyo.


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