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June 9, 2009

Member deleted

EU is the largest single market in the world and the biggest donor in humanitarian aid, providing 56 percent of assistance to developing countries worldwide. With this background it’s sad that the foreign affairs – CFSP, ESDP - is presumably the ‘weakest link’ of the EU. Earlier I have criticized EU too much following agenda of U.S. foreign policy interests. In addition blocs such as Africa Group, Organisation of the Islamic Conference, Arab Group, Non-Aligned Movement, have shown to be more united in the UN than the EU.

Inside EU the weakest link is the European Parliament. In principle it can only slow common development policy designed in Commission and Council of Ministers. The power still lies with national governments and the Europeans, public, is showing no will to place it anywhere else.

In going elections trend is a turning inward, a renationalisation of European politics, and a shift to protectionism. While the turnout will probably be even lower than before my forecast about the result will be following:

* those who have strong opinions are motivated for voting,

* the share of those with strong opinions will be in EP bigger than in national parliaments

* strong opinions in EU election are mostly channelled via euro-sceptics, nationalists, populist and right-wing parties

* if UK Conservatives are leaving the biggest group in EP new coalitions new combination of ad hoc coalitions are possible

* euroscepticism, previously a British and, to a lesser extent, a Scandinavian characteristic, is spreading even into the historical heartland of the EU, such as the Netherlands

* also new left can gain support from mainstream social democrats

The bottom line will be more extremist politics and bye bye Lisbon Treaty, EU enlargement and cohesion.

Wiesenthal Centre Director for International Relations, Dr Shimon Samuels, urged the European Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) “to launch an investigation into the financing and promotion campaigns of MEPs who will be elected this week to the new European Parliament and who espouse anti-Semitic, anti-Muslim, anti-Roma, homophobic or other discriminatory platforms.

It totally possible that apathy towards political élites, low turnout and success of anti-Europeans, extremists etc will bring Hamas phenomenon inside EU. Democratic election went wrong at least from pro-European perspective. The gap between parliament and other EU institutions will be wider so what’s the response – maybe blockade of EP.

My forecast does not set great hopes on some nice ideas of common Europe. Maybe this is not big loss anyway as diversity probably is one of rare European core values. (written 5th June 2009)

June 9, 2009

Rudi Guraziu, International Business and Diplomatic Exchange , Silver Contributor (36)

Ari, I'm pleased you've read my article on 'European Union and Global Governance: an Evaluation' - Hope you liked it :-)

June 9, 2009

Marek Swierczynski, journalist at TVN24, Diamond Contributor (1100)

From a EU-newcomer's perspective the bottomline is "more Europe, less Eurocracy". Poles voted in favour of the UE accession in a nationwide referendum with a turnout of more than 50% in 2003 and only 20% voted in the first European elections in 2004. More than 50% went to the ballots in 2007 to remove the Law and Justice party from power but two years later only 25% turned out to select their delegation to the European Parliament - though it is much more coherent with only 4 parties sharing the mandates. As the idea of United Europe remains popular it is the actions of the EU and the role of the European Parliament - and the way that mainstream media and politicians see them - that discourage the voters. It is the grandest failure of the European Parliament that it did not find the way to communicate its mission and rally the voting communities. It requires a lot of education from primary school and a lot of effort from the MEP's to fix that before they become irrelevant for their electorates.

June 10, 2009

Astrid F. Brun, Universitet Oslo, (3)

I agree with the analysis in the article, but I think that the "turn inwards" will be short-lived and for the most part is part of a protest vote. Euroskepticism has been a feature of the EU long before this election, and the popularity of this mindset beyond Scandinavia further reinforces the idea that it's spread will be temporary. As soon as the economy improves and voters are thinking more about their future and less about clinging to their jobs and making ends meet, there will be a movement away from the conservative social policies of the right. The election of a member of the Pirate Party in Sweden also shows that this election was about making a statement for concrete change and rejecting an inefficient status quo. This movie shows exactly why the pirate party won a seat - they are direct and transparent about their aims, something every government could benefit from.

http://www.newsy.com/videos/ahoy_european_parliament_sees_pirates_a...

June 12, 2009

Nikolina-Romana Milunovic, Zeppelin University, Silver Contributor (52)

I very much agree with the previous statement about transparency. One of the main reasons for the low voter turnout is the non-existing European civil society. Inspite of feeling European, most people don't feel EUropean as they are mostly unfamiliar with EU institutions and their aims. Further a justified recurring criticism about the EU, the democratic deficit is not resolved. Why should you vote for a Parliament that has so little power?
Most governments are not willing to give up any more state-sovereignty which leads to a halfhearted attempt to convince citizens of the importance of the EU (make Europe are more powerful international actor). If most EU-members are in fact not interested in more than just a economic bond of countries as it could be reasoned after the failure of the Treaty of Lisbon, the possibility of a "Offener Gravitationsraum", which gives members the flexibility to collaborate as much or as little as they want on an economic or political level should be considered.

June 12, 2009

Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)

The EU reminds me of poorly-designed authorisation software, where a formerly unitary authority has been divided into many compoments, all of which have to agree for authorisation to be given and real work done.

At the best of times such systems tend to be slow and creaky, and in the worst times they tend to break down and not work at all!

Does that sound like the EU to you?

The EU can be very effective (even draconian) when regulating outside companies like Microsoft or Boring, but usually seems to be much less so on EU companies, perhaps because there are so many ways of throwing a spanner in the works, so any internal opposition tends to paralyze the body or slow it down drastically.

This has led to the perception that 'Europe' in nothing more than a mechanism for screwing those not in Europe. I suspect it wasn't designed to be that way, but in normal practice that is how it often works.....

June 12, 2009

Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)

Sorry to have gone wide of the mark with the last comment. More to the point, why do you suppose most EU citizens con't take the EP seriously and either don't vote in European elections or use their vote to register protest votes in domestic politics?

Possibly because the EP (and MEP's) are viewed as having less power than the organgrinder's monkey and MEP slots are routinely used as political patronage because of the extremely lax expenses policy routinely practiced by MEP's. It's a job with little power and requiring no special talent with but extremely generous compensation.

If monkies can do the job, people will vote in monkies....

June 13, 2009

Nikolina-Romana Milunovic, Zeppelin University, Silver Contributor (52)

I disagree there, while the EU-parliament indeed has very little say, the MEPs get a great deal of work done. Just because their recommendations have less effect than they ought to, has luckily not resulted in a lethargy in Brussels.
The EU has been dragged into a vicious circle. People don't care, because they think the EU is powerless, therefore they don't involve themselves in the input-process. If this continues, as I think it will, attempts to increase European democracy like the Treaty of Lisbon will fail again and again. Therefore European citizens will not be convinced of the European idea. This phenomenon of inefficiency can either continue for the next decades or a fundamental reform of European institutions can lead to a new direction.