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April 12, 2010 |  10 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

What's Next for Poland?

Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: In all its sadness, the tragic plane crash that claimed the lives of many distinguished Poles in Smolensk can open new opportunities for Polish-Russian reconciliation, a less politicized presidential campaign in Poland, and a renewed sense of unity and common purpose.

Shock. Grief. Disbelief. Those were the emotions that swept Poland and the international community in the wake of the disastrous plane crash in Smolensk, Russia that killed Polish President Lech Kaczyński, his wife, and nearly 100 dignitaries. Many also feel anger and frustration because they believe the tragedy could have been avoided. Although the exact cause of the crash is yet to be determined, it has been abundantly clear for years that the aging fleet of Polish government planes badly needs to be upgraded. Whether mechanical failure played a role or not, it also appears likely that the pilot felt under pressure to land in time for the Katyń commemorative ceremony despite dreadful weather conditions. Finally, as a matter of policy, it is unforgivable that so many important figures, including parliamentarians, senators, and army chiefs were allowed to fly together in one plane.

This is not the time for assigning blame, as there will be ample opportunity for analyzing what went wrong after the forensic investigation concludes. But it is time for reflection on what this tragic event means for Poland's future. As candle-carrying crowds fill the streets of Poland and well-wishers lay wreaths in front of Polish embassies around the world, one is hard-pressed to find a silver lining in this senseless tragedy. Yet, there are a few important implications to consider. In an ironic twist of history, those who died in the crash laid their lives in the ultimate service to commemorate the Soviet massacre of thousands of Polish officers in Katyń forest 70 years ago. That was the purpose of their trip, which turned out to be their final calling.

Russia had not formally acknowledged the responsibility for the killings until 1990 and continues to refuse to declare the Katyń executions a war crime, casting a shadow over Polish-Russian relations. Prime Minister Putin's attendance on Wednesday at the first joint commemorative ceremony was an important symbol in setting the record straight and represented a significant step toward reconciliation. President Kaczyński was on the way to pay his respects on Saturday when the plane crash occurred. However tragically, this event seared Katyń anew into the collective memory of Poles and reminded the rest of the world what happened there in April 1940.

The immediate aftermath of the catastrophe also testifies to the strength and maturity of Poland's democratic institutions. Although the loss of the head of state and key figures in the country is certainly shocking, no power vacuum or chaos ensued. In accordance with constitutional provisions, Speaker of the House Bronisław Komorowski took over the functions of president, Prime Minister Donald Tusk continues to head the government, and deputies - from army generals to the governor of the National Bank of Poland - swiftly stepped into the positions of power vacated by their deceased superiors.

It is also noteworthy that the outpouring of mourners that followed the tragic news wasn't simply an expression of personal grief after Mr. Kaczyński's death. In fact, many Poles who took to the streets to mourn him were not planning to vote for him in the upcoming presidential elections. Still, the mourners showed up in force to honor the office as much as the man, proving that the country's strength rests in the resilience of its people and in lasting institutions, not particular individuals in power. The presidential elections will proceed as planned some time in June.

A horrible tragedy happened, but in all its sadness it can open new opportunities on several levels: Polish-Russian reconciliation over a historical grievance, a less politicized and more issue-focused presidential campaign in Poland, and a sense of unity and common purpose as the country deals with the void left by those who perished. The outpouring of international sympathy shows that Poles are not alone in this hour of national sorrow. Hopefully, that painful experience can help ensure that something so basic as putting the safety of the most important people in the country first will no longer get lost amidst politics as usual.

Anna Nadgrodkiewicz is a member of Washington DC-based American Polish Forum, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing issues of significance to the United States and Poland in the 21st century.

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Pat  Patterson

April 12, 2010

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The temporary president, Bronisław Komorowski, Marshall of the Sejm, is a descendent of Polish and European nobility, a lifelong member of the Scouting Movement(Boy Scouts) and wa imprisoned several times during the years of communist control. A man who refuses to distance himself from the Boy Scouts is not exactly the kind of man who will fear the Russians in any way nor see a need, other than normal intra-state contacts , to attempt any further repproachment with the Russians.. I don't see much of a change, in fact in viewing the comments in the Polish papers and blogs, there seems to be even greater hostility to Russia. And putting Putin in charge of the investigations seems to have convinced people that the Russians are not serious about better relations.

Komorowski, even before the crash, lead in the early polls and unless he does something really ridiculous he will probably be the new president and his pro-business and pro-West party will pick up more seats in the Sejm. The Polish constitution calls for elections to be announced within 14 days of a presidential vacancy and then no longer than 60 days beyond that so there will probably be no change in the date of elections. But I suspect that in the run up to the election and for some time afterwards tensions will escalate not diminish.
 
Anna  Nadgrodkiewicz

April 13, 2010

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I’m not sure I follow your logic about Bronisław Komorowski’s alleged anti-Russian stand that would make further rapprochement impossible. I’m also not sure what Polish papers and blogs you’re referring to citing increased hostility toward Russia after the crash. In fact, many Poles are moved by the supportive, deeply human gestures and expressions of sympathy both among ordinary Russians and Russian officials – including Prime Minister Putin: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/11/poland-tragedy-...

Of course that doesn’t mean that all the long-standing issues between Poland and Russia, ranging from historical disagreements through energy policy to security, will suddenly disappear. And yes, you’re probably right that campaign politics in Poland in the run up to the June elections will at some point turn ugly. But this is a unique moment of good will and unity when Poles rose above partisan differences to honor the victims and so did Russians. That is something worth celebrating and building on in this otherwise unimaginably sad moment.
 
Pat  Patterson

April 13, 2010

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What alleged anti-Russian stand? I said that Komorowski would not fear the Russians anymore than his predecssor did. There is certainly a stunned and grateful acceptance of Russian and for that matter the world wide condolences. But the US, after 9/11, had almost the same support which soon evaporated as when the US did something in reprisal. Though here the circumstances are so different that Poland would see the need for reprisal based on likely pilot error and bad weather.

But the arguments over Poland's future already have started with the appointment to head the NBP which has been under fire by the government in regards to how the profit should be used. That appointment still has to go to the Sehm for confirmation and it will be interesting to note what arrangements will be made for cofirmation.
 
Juliusz  Artur Gsodam

April 13, 2010

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Mr. Pat Patterson seems to suggest that many believe that longstanding issues between Poland and Russia will disappear as a result of Russia's and the Russians' outpouring of sympathy towards Poland in their hour of tragedy. It is to be hoped that it is the beginning of better relationship and a great deal better than the many betrayals of Poland by her Western Friends, pricipally the U.S.A. and Great Britain, between 1939 and now.
 
Pat  Patterson

April 13, 2010

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No, actually I believe just the opposite that the current series of photo ops will not really change the dynamic between the two countries one bit. And I also think that its rather naive to suggest that the brutal occupation of Poland by the Germans and then for a much longer time by the Russians is somehow the equivelant of England and France not having the forces to roll back the German occupation of Poland in 1939 and ignores the very real risks that the American labor movement took in supporting Solidarity and America's support for the Polish Government-in-Exile.

Also what betrayal by the British considering they were rushing troops to the southwest of Poland but Russia's invasion made such a linkup not only impossible but suicidal. But I suppose the limited resources of the BEF and the French Army were better spent on attacks against a numerically and technologically superior force rather than their ultimate withdrawal to England. Why the Poles would not remember that it was the Germans and Russians that rendered their country apart and attempt to score brownie points off of the West's admitted inability to dislodge the Soviets is blaming the policeman for not protecting someone and ignoring the guy with the gun who killed in the first place.
 
Ann H. Sontz

April 13, 2010

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This is indeed a time of mourning in Poland as well as in Polish communities in North America. Attention is of necessity focused on Poland's personal and political losses, including a President, leading members of some of the country's political parties,Poland's Central Bank Governor, and its military head. Ties between Poland and Russia are also being reviewed,but these relationships remain structural in nature.Though an easing of historic and contemporary tensions is always welcome,it may be too soon to judge whether current relationships.embedded as they are in an atmosphere of loss, constitute a shift towards a sustainable rapprochement.
Tags: | Poland,Russia |
 
Unregistered User

April 14, 2010

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Is this Bronisław Komorowski somehow related to another Pan Komorowski that was aboared of the crashed plane among other dignitaries? (Stanislaw Jerzy Komorowski - Deputy Defence Minister, that is)
Tags: | poland katyn airplane |
 
Pat  Patterson

April 14, 2010

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He, Stanislaw Komorowski, was a very high profile leader of the pro-US faction in the Polish Defense Dept(?). He was educated in the US and according to his vita has also written at least one article for the Atlantic Community. The family he comes from is huge with many names but I could find no relation other than political between Stanislaw Komorowski and Bronislaw Komorowski. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I think its tantamount to having the last name of Smith, Garcia or Nguyen in the US.
 
Unregistered User

April 21, 2010

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For the families of the dead, I have nothing but heartfelt condolences, and know that no amount of empathy and support can dull the pain of loss and waste.

The World, however, wags on, and I believe a new dynamic is now becoming apparent in East Central Europe. Once again, I am forced to admire the astuteness of Russian foreign policy. A disaster for Poland on Russian soil, connected to a war crime committed by Russians on tens of thousands of Polish citizens from the cultural elite has been turned into a diplomatic triumph for Russia. The sight of a muted, solemn and respectful Russian president at the funeral of President Kaczynski and his wife in Krakow cathedral is compared to the news of President Obama playing a round of golf at the time. The message is as plain as day - we are here, we share in your sadness, we are your neighbours, we have changed, and we want to be on good terms with you. The timing is perfect - my sense is that Polish society, of all political spectra, is tired of the wars of words with Russia, and there is ample evidence of a desire for a rapprochement with their great neighbour.

There are essentially no outstanding issues between the two countries, much in cultural terms that connects them, and a growing awareness that contacts at all levels can be highly profitable for both societies. The question is, whither Poland now? Since the 1990's its ostpolitik has been on the basis of "an adversary of Russia is our friend" - skilled Russian diplomacy has abruptly blunted this approach - it has persuaded an implacable, relatively influential opponent to consider that there may be other possibilities in its relations with Russia.

There is no reason to doubt Russia's sincerity in this - in some ways they are the clearest-headed about the way the post-Cold War World has emerged, and that the old slogans, values, and war-cries have become obsolete. Polish attitudes post-1990 have, reasonably accurately, been to see Russia in its pre-communist past, as an expansionist, imperial power - this may now be questioned. The future, suddenly, has become less clear....
 
Member deleted

May 23, 2010

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@Mr. Pat Patterson
Tensions during the campaign for the elections has already escalated. As it was easy to predict before, the tragedy of the plain crash has been mentioned during the campaign and used as an "argument" already.
 

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