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January 17, 2012

Talha Bin Tariq, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan, Gold Contributor (101)

China in the Global Order
Because china is becoming new super power of Asia and the world as this country is highly contributing in increasing the economy of its own and somewhat damaging the economy of other countries.

Pakistan
Imran Khan in politics and is continuously getting wickets of different old politicians from different political parties like shah mehmood qureshi of PPPP and jawaid hashmi of PML(N) .. and there are lots of controversies are creating behind him .. some people say he is christians agent or he is having under the table deal with america and pervaiz musharraf .. but then all these rumors or true or only rumors depend upon the time.

The Financial Crisis
FInancial crisis has hit the entire world which is causing hunger,poverty,desperation,unemployment and recession all around

Technological Warfare
TECHNOLOGY another major and very important aspect of 21st century .. we are witnessing the impacts of technology warfare almost everywhere either physical or else physiological .. internal or external .. but we all have witnessed it one way or the other.

Russia

January 17, 2012

Robert Helbig, American University, Silver Contributor (32)

Aren't you missing India on this list??

Also, I am not surprised that so few people believe that AC should focus on Brazil since the importance of this country has been completely undermined by any transatlantic research institution. Maybe you should use the chance to become a forerunner on this topic!

January 17, 2012

henelito a. sevilla, jr, asian center, university of the philippines

the following issues are I think important for this year's discussions

1) Iran and the Middle East- because change in the political landscape of the region will greatly impact not only regional security dynamics but also it will affect the prices in the global oil market led by more prices speculation. Consuming countries especially developing countries will suffer a lot and it will also help intensify power competition in the region as they seek to leverage in the supply of energy. China is one of the example. Looking from this perspective, I think it will worsen the already fragile political environment in the region. It will also make negotiation with Iran difficult for the United States and the International community.

2) China in the Global order-Second is the rising of China and the search for appropriate place in the international community. Having foreign reserves of about 3.2 trillion Dollar could mean a lot for China and the world. This soft element of power may be over viewed by other countries but it has the potential to create both a positive and negative scenario depending on which direction China would like to take and whether it is acceptable by other competing power. This will also be a very good variable in analyzing Chinese movement in the South China Sea recently and the efforts to integrate Chinese economy to the most of the Asian Countries through regional economic and political organizations such as CAFTA and ARF.


3) Russia- Russia in the recent years is trying to engage in many strategic areas in the world. although many believes that its economic priorities matter most in this engagements.

4) Europe beyond the brink-Europe will continue to be one of the most important topics to be discussed this year. Despite its economic woes, Europe would still be an important ally in the promotion of the international peace, reform, human rights advocacy and environmental preservation.

January 18, 2012

Zahide Dilek Kütük, none, (4)

China in the Global Order
It is so obvious that in 21. century, the world's attention will focus on China. they possess large and threatening an economic power day by day. Political maneuvers that they gained is arouses concern to the other countries.So If we take into consideration all these things, with no doubt, in the global order the importance of the China will increase.

The Financial Crisis
Previous year was not a good year for the Europe. Greece, Spain and now also countries like Italy and Portugal has economical problems. When I think about the reasons of this economical crisis, several reasons are coming my mind; elderly population in most European countries, poormanagement, neglect and more.. Greece came to the stage of extinction. In Spain, extreme unemployment. However, rest of Europe and America are always helping these countries. So what If they don’t.. Economic crisis will envelop the whole world like a contagious disease.

Technological Warfare
The place and importance of technology today is indisputable. But there is alot to consider about this developing concept each passing day. From one hand, we can not deny it's importance about facilitating our lives. But from other hand, also the technology that makes dark in the life, source of many sad situations. Many poeple have just strated to talk about only the adverse facts of technology in recent years. technology is seen as responsible for environmental problems and also destruction in war. Probably these views will continue in 2012. But I think that technology is not the main factor that creates the violence, it is the human being just behind it…

Iran & the Middle East
Iran and other middle eastern countries will be much more important this year. Because of the Nuclear weapons, oil situations , and In terms of its relationship with the United States, their importance will increase.
Another issue that must be addressed here in Turkey. İn terms of its strategic location, Turkey is such as a bridge between the Middle East countries and other countries like United States. So this country will be also very popular in 2012.

Europe Beyond the Brink
After the economic crises, disputes between the countries and the wrong decisions, the future situation of the Europe doesn’t look good at all. I hope all the problems will be solved. But it is not even easy to hope. Just two examples to explain…
* 9 European country's credit rating lowered by the credit rating agency.
* S&P (Standard & Poor) cuts EFSF (European financial stabilization fund) redit rating after eurozone downgrade.

January 18, 2012

Vijeta Rattani, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Bronze Contributor (25)

India is definitely missing on the chart!...Also I think non-traditional security threats like energy, climate change, migration, etc must be treated as a seperate area because of their growing importance globally. These are the issues that will dominate the agenda in the coming times.

January 18, 2012

Greg Randolph Lawson, Wikistrat, Platinum Contributor (507)

The key to focusing on issues is understanding approximate time frames. ALl of the ideas mentioned above are highly relevant and worth exploration.

In the short term, Iran, the financial crisis and Europe Beyond the Brink are the most important.

Clearly any type of military conflict with Iran over its nascent nuclear program or a possible closure f the Straits of Hormuz would be the biggest story of the year complete with oil price hikes and the regional balance of power being shifted.

The financial crisis and Europe beyond the brink could also have short term impacts. For example a major slowdown in Europe or the beginnings of a crack up of the EU (a very possible outcome) will have geopolitical impacts on Russia and even the US election if the US economy gets hit just as it starts showing signs of life.

Long-term, both of those are also very important, but how they will play out in the 5-10 year time frame is unknown and forecasting such is an effort to don the garb of Nostradamus.

Speaking of Nostradamus, all of the other ideas are clearly immensely impactful, probably none more than the rise (or, according to some prognosticators, the slow down) of China, but these are distinctively long-term trends. They deserve careful attention and will drive much of strategic planning. However, barring something completely unforeseen, these are all the kind of slow, evolutionary changes that take decades to fully become realized. Even technology, as fast as it updates itself, does not have immediate impacts as it takes awhile for it to become adopted or, in the case of military applications, integrated in doctrine.

I would encourage a focus on Iran and the EU challenges followed by China, technology and Russia.

January 18, 2012

Lawrence Efana

The choice of topics for 2012 is to an extent still an open thing even for the Transatlantic Community Org. Why? Because of the dynamics of local and global events and the reality of constraints to predictability: what suddenly props up to demand immediate analysis, debates and discussions; foster clearer understand and depending on the texture and need insight also to called-for-solutions. The year 2012 is only beginning. It might be a bit difficult to rely totally on current risk estimates considering possibilities of emergency situations the estimates might not have foreseen. These and other chances suggest great flexibility and some form of open doors on the theme of choice of topics to engage policy-makers and discussants actively working on the community opinions against the background of what defined problems are.

In the meantime, the 10 topics above are very cogent and interesting in terms of the types of dynamic elements "known and unknown" each carries. I personally would want to order my preference in the following setting: (1) The financial crisis; (2) Technological warfare; (3) Russia; (4) China and global order; and (5) The global south.

But then, since it also seems clear to me that all 10 are important, my reason for choosing above five is because it is possible to link the other five to any of the picked. That means it is possible to expand each theme hence also reformulate the topic. In any case I am not going to do the latter, but can instead group some - a kind of modification anyhow]. That is to say that, I would prefer to tie "Europe beyond the brink" and "Europe after America" to: (1) - The financial crisis; tie: "Iran and the Middle-East" and "Pakistan" to: (2) Technological warfare; and finally tie "Brazil" to: (5) The global south. This way of rethinking by me, leaves both (3) and (4): China and global order and Russia, respectively, as entities of interests to forms of scenarios and estimates, but for who---themselves, the UN or the West? Frankly, the question is to humble strategies in the interest of world peace and stability, thinking of their resources and strength!

Notions of progress also informed by knowledge and facts of world affairs, many would agree have to closely reflect the way that choice and combination: (5) is to be enriched by some way of expansion. Much has been said and written about the changing status of nations on world affairs: economic, technological and sadly also military]. The concept of the "North" is being gradually eaten into - a natural result of progress and development spillover. No need not to appreciate and welcome that as something healthy for our world and people. Beyond that, the truth also is that every step in that direction changes structure of what once was conceived as the club of "super powers": happening with immense effect on that definition in the world of today -- well leading to redefinition of and indeed the extinction of "by-polarism" to the benefit and welcome of "multi-polarism". International politics/relations and reformulated approach to diplomacy of our age 'are' grappling with it. In fact, we are seeing an international system in transition and transformation. Thus the ways in which we talk, write and address "The global south" are heavily impacted upon. For it, many agree that Brazil is one so to pick and rest on it contextually would do a great injustice to states like India and perhaps South Africa too in the meantime.

Having said these, I somehow object in relative terms to some of the perceptions behind selective styles and values coined into the aspects of explanations accompanying each of the topics. I know they are drafts possible to enrich and modify and yet without objection it might not be easy look and and redress. Of these, the most worrisome are structures of values, short as they are for the "transatlantic" thing itself, in-so-far as it might be wise to raise issues drawing from: (a) Europe beyond the brink, and (b) Europe after America. In both of these, the pictures of challenges are apparent: not at all unnatural or any outright sign that something is totally broken. Some challenges come to systems and peoples to get them to do more and think right. There was an article published in Open democracy not long ago, if I recall right, titled: "Where were you when Europe...". Surely, there have been many such fine papers to intimate and wake Europeans on the challenging issue of "political will and economic decency cum discipline and progress". Most impressed many including on the contribution of J. Habermas on well argued and supported contribution to how best to assess EU failures at both member state and Commission levels, which led to a call for deeper review of democracy needs for the Union, including rethinking the political status of the Union hence the need to rework and redefine it. Structurally, Europe and EU, on many issues, including foreign policy play out in conflicting and less dynamic ways compared to the "federal" state: the US--its key partner on world affairs and until now economic cooperation. Monetary union alone --- and even there not all member states adopt the Euro] is insufficient as it only shows one side of the whole coin important and a hit and run mentality: we are there for business thanks to loosely defined accommodating agreements. There is no trust and stamina in the process: not enough to carry Russia convincingly along. Europe forgets its history and keeps mistrust living and that indeed serves nobody and it is not right to after longtime transatlantic cooperation and sound experience to shift blames in hard time. One should wake-up to do the work well instead!

The cries that America abandons Europe and moves "Asiawards" has not been clearly argued and understood. Political incoherence remains a problem likely to get worse if the present administration is toppled in the US. It is political language that should hold and make Europe check its way. Europe is older than America. America is partly Europe by history. European age bestows her with wisdom accruing from long experience and also history: those of revolutions, social upheavals, hunger, poverty...you name it! Collectively, these have given a character to European political and social/economic history and values. They have made Europe moderate and sensitive: produced listening political practitioners, technocrats, and bureaucrats and enlightened thinkers and writers. Again, this is different when compared with America, which until recently, in spite of the gradual entry of painful European historical experiences tied to decay, had thought herself invincible. Europe fails to be a teacher of political significance but in friendliness and peace. Anyone trying to raise consciousness tied to clear probabilities of decay and the need for a 'political value sit-up' is blown is accused and applauded elsewhere unfortunately. Noby knows anymore what is good for people or a people and if by virtue of responsible sense of freedom one feels the need to say it loud, then comes intimidation! Heated campaigns ongoing now in the US make believe that there are colleagues turning or trying to make Europe of her: a sign of clear misunderstanding hence relatively unpromising that the change of political power in Washington is likely to understand and make well with a Europe still not having found herself in well deserved union ties for progress and augmentation of on share political value pride!

Those lecturing and writing about these key matters have much to add and let us hope that will be done as the democratic debate, by right continues within and outside transatlantic circles. Economic crisis is problematic for all and those who drove systems into that for several reasons including war games and investments, continue to manipulate peoples' minds. One indeed is to thank God and wonder that in spite of all that has been said in the negative so far in recent thee year period, the international system has benefited greatly from conscientious diplomacy even in the face of reactions to Iran and still possible to manage dilemmas of wars and conflicts running here and there out of steam. If we see progress, we must conscientiously say so and not blackmail and go the back way again to ignite new conflicts to lead to misuse of growing limited resources war weary fighting cores - be they NATO-grouped or any other. Much to explain but good to stop here yet!

January 19, 2012

Amarjyoti Acharya

Europe After America by itself is a topic that is vastly interesting. It assumes something about Europe (European Union) and the USA to be more accurate. The topic Europe at the brink of course makes the topic Europe After America more nuanced and interesting. Guess the Bible has many versions. Remember seeing the ones by the Mormons too. Very interesting indeed.

January 25, 2012

Mustafa Y. CELIK, Retired, Silver Contributor (33)

As a matter of personal curiosity, I would appreciate seeing the so called "climate change" discussed at some length regarding the course it may follow in the 21st Century as to whether the median temperatures will become cooler or warmer or remain just about the same?