Strategic Regions
Eastern Europe/Central Asia
Marek Swierczynski: NATO’s Chicago Summit announced the first phase of Ballistic Missile Defense as operational. The news was welcomed in Warsaw, but nobody rejoiced, as one of the country’s strategic priorities in transatlantic relations had moved far away from its borders. No one knows if it will ever come back. …More
Gökhan Tekir: The paper analyzes how the Russian Federation uses energy as a foreign policy instrument. Russia’s main aim is to prevent Western interference in its sphere of influence. This is done by maintaining its hegemon position in supplying Caspian energy sources to Europe. …More
Anonymous: The first election of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) brought Turkish citizens hope regarding the democratization of the country. Two terms later, opponents are imprisoned because of their political ideas, religious values are infringing on secular institutions, and power is being concentrated at the top. …More
The Dayton Agreement ended a war, but it also institutionalized ethnicity as the predominant feature of Bosnian social and political identity. ++ There has been little room for other minorities, since they had no seat at the negotiating table …More
Editorial Team: The NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy returns to answer more of your questions! In this next round he discusses NATO’s role in Central Asia, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, and reaching out to Brazil, among other issues. …More
Ian Clarke Hansen: The best way to promote a communal NATO is to provide a meaningful purpose that draws upon transnational concerns and interests. The clearest and most deserving case for this is establishing a timeline of admittance for the Republic of Georgia. …More
Simon O Williams: In order to improve its public approval in Russia, NATO must analyze anti-NATO sentiment, specifically amongst youths, and identify possible methods of remediation. …More
Aliya Beisenbekovna Mussabekova: Kazakhstan and NATO need a more profound exchange of values and ideas. This is importannt today because the generation of young people who had never lived under Soviet rule has already grown up. The first challenge we should address is the information barrier. …More
Rahim Yusif Rahimov: The vast energy resources of Central Asia have led to a growing competition between Russia, who views the region as within its rightful sphere of influence, and Western nations. To ensure the security of its energy resources, the EU should use its Eastern Partnership to downplay both the NATO and Russian military presence in the region. …More
Alex Rubin: The Western view that the Internet represents a unique force for opposition activists under undemocratic rule is too simplistic. While individuals can utilize such technology to challenge the status quo, this study focuses on how regimes, specifically in Russia and Belarus are quite capable of neutralizing online activity through a variety of techniques. …More
Shahla Sultanova: Like Iran in the 1970s, Azerbaijan’s oil wealth is being funneled into an increasingly ostentatious and autocratic regime that uses its energy reserves to curry favor with the West. Without changes soon, Azerbaijan will also follow Iran into collapse, revolution, and opposition to the West. …More
United Russia’s electoral setback looks much worse considering that even vote suppression and neutered opposition parties could not prevent this result. ++ The writing was on the wall; United Russia was trounced in regional elections in March …More
Stanislav Maselnik: Putin’s Eurasian Union is a sound initiative of regional integration and need not present competition to the EU and its allies. In contrast, it can serve EU and US interests by bringing a stabilizing force to the region and creating a strong ally to balance against the rising power of China. …More
Russia’s 18-year quest to become a member of the WTO may finally be drawing to a close by the end of this year, as Georgia gave its consent under US and EU pressure. ++ The biggest barrier to admission into the WTO, however, lies within Russia in the …More
Elena Georgievna Ponomareva: While the West has been quick to cast Putin’s Eurasian project as a throwback to the Soviet Union, the prospect of functioning Eurasian Union bodes well for security and prosperity in the post-Soviet space and could undermine Western global hegemony. …More
Maxim Miroshnikov: Russia finds itself at a crossroads facing a set of opportunities and challenges in regards to its demographic situation, military, economy and governance. Despite undergoing dramatic economic improvement, Russia remains a great power in name only. …More
Dustin Dehez: Despite Russia’s posturing as a resurgent global power, the Russian oil-based economy is vulnerable and the absence of the rule of law stands in the way of any development. Putin’s return to power will further strain Russia’s relations with the West. Now is the time to develop a new approach to Russia. …More
The West should not expect any major changes in Russian foreign policy upon Putin’s return to the Kremlin. ++ Russia will continue to enforce its present agreements and maintain a pragmatic partnership with the US and Europe. …More
Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency removes the illusion of any real political competition in Russia. ++ As president Putin is likely to aggravate relations with Russia’s neighbors and do little to tackle rampant corruption domestically. ++ …More
Ukraine has come a long way from its Soviet legacy. Now, Kiev sets its sights on EU membership. ++ With an educated labor force and a “rich foundation in science and technology” along with its energy diversification …More
NATO: Robert Pszczel is the Alliance’s face in Russia. The head of NATO’s Moscow office, he now both talks about - and listens to opinions on - NATO’s evolving partnership with Russia. Here he explains some of the feedback - and why it’s positive to be an optimist. …More
US diplomats dealing with Pakistan “spend most of their time haggling over our military and intelligence activities, when they should instead be pursuing the sort of comprehensive social, diplomatic and economic reforms that …More
Oleg Khlopov: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) demonstrates the way regional powers can collaborate in order to bring about economic development and become security partners in Central Asia. Nowadays the SCO members are facing two main problems: the enlargement of the organization and their attitude to the role of the US in Central Asia. …More
Ukraine possesses massive agricultural and manufacturing potential, and Europe should support Kiev’s movement toward the EU. ++ But the trial of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, an opponent of President Viktor Yanukovich, is …More
Orkhan Gafarli: Before a ceasefire took effect in 1994, the Nagorno-Karabakh War took the lives of over 20,000 people. Now, the “frozen” conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is threatening to heat up once again. Both countries must implement democratic reform if a lasting peace is ever to be reached.
…More
Ingo Mannteufel: Germany’s political and intellectual classes are completely divided over how to perceive present-day Russia and what Germany’s policies toward the country should be. This was noticeable ahead of the Petersburg Dialogue, and even more evident during its discussions and lectures.
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Dmitri A Titoff: When the SCO emerged at the turn of the century, Western observers worried that its key founders, Russia and China, plotted an anti-NATO bloc. It turns out, however, that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s primary objective is to keep the status-quo in Eurasia. …More
Helen Turek: Following almost two decades of isolation, this paper sets out to examine why Belarus has traditionally had such a limited range of foreign policy options, and what has changed in the last two years, causing Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka to try and appeal as a partner to the West. …More
Fintan Hastings: Ankara has a key role to play both now and in the near future in the military and regional security of the European Union. This comes down to Brussels’ shortcomings in both crisis management and peacekeeping abilities, which can be complimented by its eastern neighbor. …More
Alex Rubin: Despite twenty years of Belarusian independence and shared borders, the EU has thus far failed to make a lasting impact on the Belarusian regime or its population. This study examines the EU’s failed approach to Minsk and contextualizes the issue by including additional factors such as Russian influence and domestic politics. …More
Jeremy Wysakowski-Walters: Polish strategic thinking can only be understood within a social-constructivist framework. This paper looks at Polish foreign policy, with especial regard to US/Polish relations. …More
Anush Hayrapetyan: The process of democratization is still ongoing in the South Caucuses . This paper identifies obstacles, challenges and achievements so far. Moreover, solutions are offered as to how the region can move forward in the future. …More
Aigerim Shilibekova: In order to build more constructive cooperation with Central Asia, NATO must understand the perceptions from the region. NATO can implement efficient soft power policies, but any coordination needs to benefit both sides. …More
Jeremy Wysakowski-Walters: The EU should embrace Belarus and use positive tactics to attempt to “convert” ordinary Belarusians, many of whom are still loyal to President Lukashenko. Sanctions do not work and will only reinforce his position. …More
Alexandra Dobra: Romania benefits from its geographical location, being situated at the confluence of different regional powers. The foreign policy challenges faced by the EU in this region can be partly alleviated, by placing Romania as the European “Trojan horse” in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. …More
Benjamin Hanke: Germany’s economic interests are the key obstacle to a closer link between Russia and the West. Berlin is following an appeasement policy towards Moscow due to a need for energy. What Germany needs to do is to revive its European vision and spearhead a common EU approach to Moscow. …More
Alexandra Vasileva: To overcome the challenges toward closer cooperation between Russia and the West, the political dialogue must be changed. The West needs to alter its judgmental rhetoric and provide true incentives for partnership such as respecting the “shared neighborhood” and visa liberalization. …More
President Medvedev has cast himself in the role of “the guarantor of the Constitution” by vetoing a law put forward by the Duma and the Senate. ++ The legislation sought to curtail the right to free assembly. ++ Although …More
Editorial Team: President Obama’s popularity in Europe does not translate into more support for US policies. According to Transatlantic Trends 2010 differences in public opinion remain on Iran and Afghanistan. Europeans are much more pessimistic than Americans regarding the ISAF mission, but they share US support for NATO being prepared to act outside of Europe. …More
Russians today are sympathetic to the French move to expel the gypsies. ++ “Being a nationalist is fashionable now, even though it was considered inappropriate behavior for a decent fellow not that long ago.” ++ What …More
Daniel Nikolits: When looking at the twenty-first century’s global security challenges, there is more that unites NATO and Russia than divides them. The next Strategic Concept must aim to strengthen the partnership with Russia for the benefit of both sides. …More
Eoin Michael Heaney : The Sino-Russian frontier in the Far East is rife with tension as the Russian population continues to shrink and a booming Chinese economy sends capital and labour northwards. This study explores the economic, demographic, political, and social dimensions shaping this problematic region. …More
Editorial Team: The Western response to the disaster in Pakistan has suffered from a certain ambivalence. On the one hand, there are fears that donations could be diverted to the Taliban war chest. On the other hand, fundamentalists could highlight the absence of Western aid in order to gain legitimacy. …More
More than 20 million people in Pakistan are now homeless as a consequence of the devastating flooding. ++ A dearth of clean drinking water will likely cause the death toll of 1,500 to rise. ++ The West must use this …More
Osama Bin Javaid: The international response to the flood in Pakistan has been muted, despite the fact that the natural disaster is the worst in the nation’s history and has affected more than 20 million lives. The government is unable to adequately respond to the crisis alone – the rest of the world must step up. …More
Moscow has stationed S-300 air defense missile systems in Abkhazia and similar devices in South Ossetia in a curious move, as Georgia possesses no air force. ++ Instead, the systems are geared toward blocking Georgian airspace. ++ The …More
In the past, the Kremlin has discredited the idea of global warming as international media hype. ++ Russia’s ruling elite has regarded the climate debate as nothing more than “an invention of the West to bring Russia to its …More
Peter the Great should inspire the search for funds to help modernize Russia. ++ The Tsar outlawed the wearing of beards and taxed those of his subjects who refused to obey. ++ To fight corruption in Russia’s notorious …More
Following the New START Treaty with the United States, the “Shkval” torpedo is more important than ever to Russian naval defense. ++ Key components are manufactured in Kyrgyzstan, where control over the factory has become an important bargaining …More
The fact that Georgia has had a more successful democratic transition than the Ukraine may be a generational matter. ++ Members of Saakashvili’s administration are on average ten years younger than most Ukrainian politicians. ++ To …More
Gregory Nizhnikau: The internal problems that Russian authorities will eventually have to face, but are at present unwilling to tackle, create an opportunity for the West to engage the countries of the region that are more than willing to keep their distance from Moscow. …More
The proposed elimination of the posts of EU representatives to Moldova and the South Caucasus reveals what intrigues are spun by the Union’s locomotives – Germany, France, and Great Britain. ++ They seek to expand their …More
The Russian Army is fighting its record of abuse and lack of finances in vein. ++ The Army will not become professional, because there is no money to make professional service attractive. ++ “The present regime’s priority …More
Jeremy Wysakowski-Walters: Poland must redefine its relations with Russia. Continued military provocations and brinkmanship will only lead to Poland’s position worsening. While maintaining its security interests, Poland must embrace the bear. This notwithstanding, Poland should not negate its democratic ideals. …More
In Vladivostok, Russian officialdom scored a victory over the partisan movement that may yet turn into defeat. ++ While successful against the uprising in the Primorski federal region, local officials have done little …More
In the aftermath of the Moscow Metro attacks, the situation in the supposed homeland of the attackers continues to escalate. ++ The 150 Daghestani fighters hiding out in the forests - the so-called “forest brotherhood” - receive much of their …More
Anush Hayrapetyan: International legal principles applied to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict allow for the international recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The conflict’s resolution would promote the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. …More
Russian authorities dispersed an opposition rally in defense of the right to free assembly in Moscow yesterday. ++ Ironically, the protest meeting had been inspired by recent remarks of Premier Putin, which “many citizens …More
There is “a disturbing trend” among those set to become “the new faces of Russia.” More and more students at Moscow’s elite universities wholeheartedly embrace conspiracy theories, such as George W. Bush …More
The new deal on the Black Sea Fleet secures Russian dominance at the expense of other countries.++ “Kiev loses because the Black Sea Fleet and its accompanying socio-political-economic-cultural infrastructure enables Russia to keep the Crimea, …More
Helen Turek: Since 2008’s Russia-Georgia war, Belarus has failed to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Belarus has already missed its Spring 2010 deadline to make a decision on the issue. The decision will determine whether Belarusian allegiance lies with Europe or with Russia. …More
The US is militarily and monetarily invested in Kyrgyzstan’s future and should focus its efforts on supporting the fledgling democratic government. ++ The White House pays an inflated rate for use of a military installation …More
The death of many Polish government officials, including the President, has raised global awareness of the Russian massacre of 22,000 Polish troops 70 years ago. ++ This truth is the first step towards genuine reconciliation …More
Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: In all its sadness, the tragic plane crash that claimed the lives of many distinguished Poles in Smolensk can open new opportunities for Polish-Russian reconciliation, a less politicized presidential campaign in Poland, and a renewed sense of unity and common purpose. …More
Brussels Forum: NATO Secretary General Rasmussen called for Russia to be included in a new Euroatlantic missile defense shield to protect against threats from would-be nuclear states like Iran. Rasmussen was addressing the Brussels Forum, an annual high-level conference on transatlantic relations. …More
Lev Voronkov: In regards to Russia’s influence in the region, no solution will be found to the Arctic challenges and disputes if the syndrome of the “cold war,” consisting of systematically labeling Russia as a disreputable power having predatory intentions in the Arctic, prevails. …More
Stefan G. Ducich: More than ten years after Operation Allied Force, there is no durable peace in Kosovo. The global community, and the EU in particular, has the responsibility and the influence to usher in a system of governance and accountability, whereby the entire Kosovar populace – regardless of ethnic back …More
For years, Russia has largely benefited from its “energy super power” strategy. ++ Today, using gas and oil supplies as a tool for the Russian diplomacy is becoming less relevant. ++ While the European market is oversupplied and battles over the …More
Joshua Posaner: Europe should strengthen infrastructure across the former Soviet space as opposed to directly competing with Russia on gas pipelines. The White Stream project currently in development by Ukraine provides a possible counterweight to Moscow’s increasing energy dominance and an antidote to Eastern Europe’s increasing isolation. …More
Andrey Chubyk: Despite being in the center of Europe, Ukraine does not have the perspective of full integration into the Union. However, the Eastern Partnership offered by Poland and Sweden offers the possibility for both the EU and Ukraine to develop a more mutually acceptable, long-term relationship. …More
Dirk Schuchardt: Germany’s main interest in NATO enlargement lies in creating a stable European security order, while preventing a confrontation with Russia. Therefore, from the German perspective, Ukraine and Georgia should not join the Alliance. …More
The New Delhi-Moscow relationship has reached a high with the signing of a nuclear agreement “essentially [enabling] India to start positioning its civilian nuclear sectors as a buyer’s market.” ++ Companies in the West should lobby their governments to …More
Deniz Sonalp: The Cyprus conflict has been waiting to be resolved since the island was partitioned in 1963. It is not only a problem between the two communities on the island; it is also an international matter which has important effects on the political positions of many states. …More
Jovana Jezdimirovic Ranito: As the situation in Kosovo since the end of the war has demonstrated, there is a gap between words and deeds. Furthermore, the main constraints preventing the successful development of security are the actors’ motivations, the lack of political will and a lack of civil and military cooperation. …More
Joshua Posaner: Dmitri Medvedev’s second state of the nation address gave observers an indication of the complex relationship at the top of Russian politics. His different approach may appear to be shifting Russia away from ‘Putinism’ and towards reform, but this is all just smoke and mirrors. …More
From arms reduction to Afghanistan to Iran, it is in Washington’s best interest to ensure cooperation with Moscow on a wide range of issues. Policy-makers in Washington now have to choose between different options for dealing with …More
Sonja Davidovic: President Medvedev’s generous offers during his state visit to Serbia indicate a strengthening of bilateral relations between Russia and Serbia. This generosity should not blind Serbia on its path towards EU membership. …More
Armenia and Azerbaijan have some lessons to learn from the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, where the employment of soft power and public diplomacy created the enabling environment for the signing of bilateral protocols. ++ Although Azerbaijani …More
Both sides claimed vindication following the publication of the EU report on the causes of the Russia-Georgia conflict. ++ “But the report said Georgia violated international law and triggered the August 2008 war by shelling the …More
As a younger Georgian politician rises in the form of Irakli Alasania, the US are finally losing patience with Mikheil Saakashvili. ++ The Georgian President fails to recognize that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia have effectively been …More
Jakob Schirmer: If the EaP is tasked with creating a pan European consensus on energy then why does it not include Russia? Exclusion only serves to create divisions between the biggest supplier and the consumer whilst further exacerbating relations between the post Soviet states and Moscow. …More
On the anniversary of the fall of the iron curtain a group of academics advocate that Europe must show stronger support for Georgia. ++ As the EU prepares to release its report on the causes of the war in Georgia we must remember the lessons of a …More
Contrary to current reports, the missile defense system in Eastern Europe will be strengthened and not scrapped. ++ The previous proposal would have been delayed until 2017 whilst the current one will see an active defense from the Iranian threat …More
Greg Randolph Lawson: The Obama Administration’s decision to stop the deployment of the ballistic missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic is unwise. It is unlikely to yield concessions from Russia on key issues and may cause other allies around the globe to question US defense commitments. …More
Moscow still confuses NATO as being the US sphere of influence justifying calls for its own to be respected. ++ “The foreign-policy doctrine that guides today’s Kremlin is a preposterous mix of 19th-century Realpolitik and early …More
Marek Swierczynski: As the US signals a reluctance to build the missile defense project, tensions with Russia develop and the deployment of troops in Afghanistan loses public support, Poland’s international standing continues to fall. With Jerzy Buzek at the helm of the EU Parliament and the upcoming presidency going to Poland, Warsaw must now turn to Europe ahead of its Atlantic focus. …More
The Kremlin’s strategy has not brought peace to the Caucasus. ++ Russia’s failure can be blamed on Vladimir Putin’s cynical deals with influential clans in the North Caucasus, the elimination of democratic procedures and the …More
Hans Kundnani: In a sense, the central question of Germany’s post war identity is of whether it constitutes a part of the West or not. As the historian Heinrich August Winkler tells it, Germany has completed its long westward journey. However, the reality is more complicated considering the increasing shift of the Federal Republic’s foreign policy towards Moscow. …More
Donald K. Bandler and Jakub Kulhanek: A weak Russia constitutes a liability for the future as a scenario of political and economic upheaval becomes likely. Consequently, Moscow’s weakness domestically could then become a global crisis and pose a major threat to international peace and security. …More
Moscow’s recent outspoken criticism of Ukraine threatens the integrity of Washington’s diplomatic reset. ++ “The Russian leadership has long been battling with Ukrainian President Yushchenko over what they see as his attempts to …More
Rudi Guraziu: The EU seems to have made its political decision as far as visa liberalization for the West Balkans is concerned. However, by excluding the two nations who have suffered the most during the conflict it risks stability in the region. …More
One year after the Russian invasion, Georgia continues to draw nearer to its western allies. ++ “The Kremlin is forced to discover that few points of its agenda have succeeded.” ++ Despite the Georgia peace plan signed by President …More
Ingo Mannteufel: US President Barack Obama proclaimed a new start in Russian-American relations; now it is the Vice President’s job to initiate a new policy towards the governments of Ukraine and Georgia. Biden made it clear that the US is no longer willing to give these countries whatever it takes to counterbalance Russia. …More
The international community must show Afghans that they will not be deserted to Taliban retribution. ++ The weaknesses of the insurgency must be considered: “It
is a… shallow coalition of convenience… [and] deeply unpopular.” ++ “Success …More
Andreas Umland: The Ukrainian Presidential elections scheduled for January 2010 are actually detrimental to the nation’s interests. Ukrainian democracy is weak, and the nation faces the fallout of the world financial crisis and Moscow’s continuously growing imperial appetite.
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Daniel Fiott: Russia’s take on foreign affairs is determined by geopolitical fears, border security and the wish to be perceived as a great power. Thus, key-issues to understand Russia are NATO and EU enlargement, the proposed US missile defense system and energy security. Other powers have to take this into account if they want Russia to be more cooperative. …More
Former decision makers from Eastern Europe warn President Obama in an open letter about an deterioration of bilateral relations. ++ The tone of the letter is “much sharper than the usual language of diplomacy.” ++ This reaction of …More
A decline in the Russian economy caused by the global financial crisis could set off an authoritarian agenda change in the Kremlin. ++ Worker protests and societal riots against company closings are just the beginning. ++ …More
President Obama’s visit to Moscow must not be taken as a serious reset with Russia. ++ It “was a mix of visionary kitsch, caviar and feckless horse-trading.” ++ Russian-American agreements made this week are short sighted. ++ Obama …More
Natalie Catherine Chwalisz: The historic revolution in Poland, now 20 years ago, is a culmination of the regime’s gradual loss of legitimacy. This paper seeks to explain the process of the authoritarian Communist regime’s collapse and stressed role legitimacy plays in sustaining ideological regimes. …More
Fighting tyranny through the airwaves is Jeff Gedmin’s goal. He was named president of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on February 2, 2007. Prior to taking this new position, Gedmin had been head of the Aspen Institute in …More
In the face of retreating OSCE peacekeepers, a second war in Georgia becomes possible. ++ Russia’s demand that the OSCE leave Georgia comes at the same time as it states Georgia is preparing for war. ++ Since last year, Moscow has …More
Russia has vetoed an extension of the UN mission in the Georgian breakaway zone of Abkhazia. ++ All international monitoring organizations have left Abkhazia. ++ “Moscow clearly wants to finish what it started… Georgia had been long …More
Rudi Guraziu: With the lowest ever turnout in European Union elections, the future of the Union has seriously been put in doubt. Conservative victories have caused major concern in membership hopeful, Turkey. If Europe fails to speak as one, its global economic and political influence could be jeopardized. …More
Editorial Team: In the second part of our expert survey on relations between Russia and the West, respondents tell Atlantic-Community.org that they remain largely sceptical of the potential for a strategic partnership between Moscow and the EU and US, however they believe that there will be some limited cooperation. …More
The road to more
security and stability in Afghanistan runs exclusively through Pakistan. Only
if the Pakistani leadership manages to avoid the collapse of political order
and the stem the march of the Taliban out of the northwest of …More
Marek Swierczynski: A failure by Polish political parties to create a vision or even debate on the country’s role in the European Union will mean these elections will focus more on domestic issues. The vote will be important for it will set the tone for Poland’s presidency and local elections in 2010. …More
Elizabeth Zolotukhina: Speaking out on human rights issues in Russia has proved to be dangerous for Russian journalists in recent years. Now that the reset button has been pressed in US - Russian relations, it is time for the the international community to pressure Moscow to halt these killings. …More
Janusz Bugajski: Russia’s priority will be to reinforce its national interests and exert influence over the foreign and security policies of disparate states in an attempt to distract from their domestic problems. This increases the importance for NATO and its allies to work not only with Russia, but also its border countries. …More
NATO’s war game maneuvers tell Georgia that it is being considered for candidacy and warns Russia against invading Georgia, stating that the southern Caucuses remain a Western focus.++ However, the timing and nature of the event are …More
Pakistan can find no peace, particularly in Baluchistan, the
border region between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Recently the Pakistani
government has felt compelled to make wide-reaching concessions to the Taliban,
who meanwhile control a …More
A switch is occurring in US-Polish relations. ++ With two wars and the unpopular missile defense proposal, the US is increasingly seen as an uncomfortable, rather than essential security partner. ++ Public opinion is turning to the …More
President Obama’s visit to Turkey signals its importance. ++ It can serve as a model of a stable democratic Muslim country and as a strategic bridge “between energy-poor Europe and energy-rich Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle …More
The approaching G20 will also be the first meeting between President Medvedev and President Obama. ++ Recently, the US has shown increased willingness to reconstruct their relations with the Kremlin whose cooperation is much needed on the Afghan and Iraqi …More
Constanze Stelzenmueller: Germany is a bridge between Russia and the West, and how Berlin chooses to deal with Moscow will set the tone for how the United States and the rest of Europe manage their own relationships with Russia. …More
Secretary of State Clinton’s European trip set out the seriousness of the Obama administration’s commitment and marked a new era of transatlantic relations. ++ The tête à tête between Clinton and Lavrov — symbolized by a button …More
The gas war has highlighted the urgency of building the Nabucco pipeline. ++ This is good news for Baku as its role in the energy world is likely to increase drastically: it would provide the infrastructure for transporting gas …More
Eastern Europe is acutely hit by the economic crisis and WB President Zoellick estimates that the region would need $120bn to recapitalize its banks. ++ Western Europe, as the main investor and credit provider in the region, is however …More
Hit hard by the financial crisis, now is no time for Russia to make enemies and the Kremlin should be content that Obama opted for an extended-hand diplomacy. ++ Yet, “even if Medvedev goes for detente, he may not be able to deliver …More
Tobias Wolny: Do not be misled by President Klaus’s speech to the European Parliament. The Czech EU presidency has done a good job so far, managing a number of unexpected international and domestic issues over the last two months. And the Czechs deserve more credit from fellow European leaders in the current debate on protectionism. …More
The liberalization paradigm, mantra of Eastern Europe in the 90s that aimed to speed up the integration process, is being questioned as the region is devastated by the economic crisis. ++ Old Europe had better help these new member states through …More
Andreas Umland: In Russia, a virulent form of anti-Americanism is becoming a constituent part of public opinion and foreign policy thinking. Should the current dominant trend in political discourse continue, in the future the world may witness more than a new cold war. …More
Biden’s comment at the Security Conference in Munich regarding the need for expert opinion prior to deploying defense missiles in Eastern Europe has raised fear in the Czech Republic. ++ “It’s beginning to look as though the …More
The Russian ambassador to Kiev has stated that Russian influence in the region is diminishing due to changed attitudes within the country and the large US presence there. ++ While the Obama administration will continue to lure Ukraine to …More
Jens F. Laurson & George A. Pieler: In light of the recent gas crisis, the need for a common European energy policy has risen to the top of the EU agenda. The prompt building of the Nabucco pipeline as well as diversification of resources should be incorporated to assure independence from the Kremlin. …More
The recent gas crisis is remarkably reminiscent of the Cold War in the sense of fear, insecurity and intimidation which it evoked. ++ Inciting such feelings in one’s adversaries is the typical obsession of a tyrannical regime. ++ Putin and …More
The fragility of Putin’s Russia has been exposed by the financial crisis, making the need for new rules of engagement between it and the West all the more necessary. ++ Anti-westernism is rife and the West has surely played its part in this. …More
Sonja Davidovic: Russia‘s shut down of its Balkan gas deliveries with the ink not yet dried on the Serbian Government/Gazprom deal indicates that vulnerable areas such as energy security must be reflected in a European strategy. …More
President Chavez and PM Putin are “enjoying a burgeoning friendship,” finding common ground in their oppression of dissidents and the violent crime ruling their cities. ++ Their regimes do little to tackle the pervasive murder of …More
The two-week gas war between Ukraine and Russia was only partly about money. ++ Russia wanted to split the Ukrainian leadership, where support for leader President Yushchenko has fallen to 5%. ++ PM Tymoshenko has also been …More
Andreas Umland: It appears that in the near future, the European Union monitors will systematically observe the flow of Russian gas to Europe at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Thus, the EU seems to be helping to ease the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation. Or is it? …More
David Neil Lebhar: As the Czech Republic takes the helm of the EU Presidency, domestic disputes and party politics promise to “spice up” Prague’s six months in office. Yet, Czech discrepancies concerning Lisbon, the US missile shield and Afghanistan may serve to emphasize the need for a common EU foreign policy. …More
Rapid triumph after the South Ossetian August war and oil barrel prices reaching the stars seem to be no more than distant memories for the Kremlin. ++ The financial crisis has hit Russia hard: aside from making oil prices fall under $40 in …More
The US-Turkey bilateral relation is under strain due to disagreement over policy under the Bush administration and many hope that the change of Presidency will bring a change of feeling. ++ However, this might not be the whole story as …More
Unity in responding to the economic crisis and unity when negotiating a new PCA with Russia is the mantra of the Czech Republic, current holder of the EU Presidency. ++ It is time for skeptics who fear new members’ commitment towards the EU to put …More
Heavily dependent on Russian gas, the EU has found itself obliged to arbitrate the Russian-Ukranian dispute in order to see its supplies maintained. ++ The difficultly reached agreement under the Czech presidency of the EU, which paves the way for …More
Jesse David Tatum: The Saakashvili administration’s biggest failure is an inability to represent a real change from the inept post-Soviet Georgian leadership of his predecessors. …More
Pakistan is still suffering the consequences of its colonial past. ++ The western nation-state model has failed at the internal level and led to damaging consequences: leaderships have always been more concerned with keeping their …More
Askarbek Erkinovich Mambetaliev: Recent legislation to tackle religious extremism in Kyrgystan is a pretext for targetting Evangelicals and religious minorities. State propaganda has created popular hostility towards non-Muslims. Tackling this situation requires inclusive rhetoric from local leaders and the curbing of anti-westernism. …More
We “wanted Russia to be a market economy, but Russia never asked how.” ++ Gazprom is like the East India Company, from which market economies grew. ++ Other sources are unreliable; China, Japan and India look to Russia for gas. ++ …More
Tobias Wolny: Dealing with Russia should not be left to cold warriors and Russian well-wishers. Both Old and New Europe will benefit from replacing threatening language with confidence building measures in their approach to diplomatic relations with Russia. …More
Two attacks against US and NATO convoys near Peshawar in Pakistan have taken place in the last week. ++ The Pakistani army appears to be testing Obama’s will. ++The US and NATO must take adequate steps to respond to these incidents. …More
Marek Swierczynski: Russia’s decision to deploy mid-range ballistic missiles in the Kaliningrad zone puts an end to the era of eradication of ballistic missiles from Central and Eastern Europe. The Kaliningrad zone, already the most militarized area in Europe, will become a hot spot in a new regional arms race. …More
Jeffrey Mankoff: Washington and London have proposed dropping the NATO MAPs for Georgia and Ukraine, favoring an open-ended development plan for both countries. Germany and France protest such unorthodoxy, but this more flexible approach might allow NATO to balance its Russian interests with eventual expansion. …More
In light of the attacks on Mumbai, President-elect Obama’s presidency will become even more complex. ++ Indicators seem to show that the attacks originated in Pakistan and point to Lashkar-e-Toiba, a terrorist group based there. ++ A …More
The US sphere of influence can’t extend from Iraq to Georgia. ++ “Historically, peace is maintained when smaller states show restraint in the face of large neighbors.” ++ “Finlandization,” or bowing towards Moscow, used to be an insult …More
NATO ministers meet this week to discuss a Membership Action Plan for Ukraine. ++ “Ukraine’s desire to join NATO is an aspiration to become part of the most effective system of collective security and to share joint responsibility for common space.” ++ Despite …More
As EU banks have been stabilized, east European subsidiaries have been discarded because some don’t want to use taxpayer money abroad. ++ As a result, investors are fleeing the “wrong side of a financial Iron Curtain.” …More
Western oriented, business friendly, and governed by smart, young people, Georgia is a country on the rise. ++ NATO should not be her final resting place, though. ++ Georgia doesn’t meet NATO requirements for full control of its territory and …More
Pakistan should be grateful for IMF supervision. ++ President Zardari seems to think he can add 61 people to his government and magically create money. ++ With a marginal parliamentary opposition and a heterogeneous government, …More
President Medvedev’s speech harshly attacked the United States and threatened to deploy new missile systems. ++ This threat is a bluff to trick the US or NATO allies into abandoning a plan for a simple missile system in Poland and …More
Commodity prices are falling, Western credit has dried up, and Russia has failed to diversify its economy. ++ Russia’s dazzlingly successful economy turned out to be just make-believe. ++ Despite the professionalism of the finance …More
The Georgia conflict is forcing Russia’s neighbors to rethink their relationships with Russia as well as with the West. Through military action, Russia has demonstrated how far it is willing to go to protect its national interests. …More
Marek Swierczynski: Russia’s naval power prevents NATO from effectively defending Baltic States. If the Alliance is serious about its commitments, it must strengthen its marine capabilities to match those of the Russian Baltic Fleet. …More
Russia’s invasion of Georgia is not an aberration - it demonstrates a pattern of aggression, one that now threatens Ukraine as Moscow embraces PM Yulia Tymoshenko. ++ Russia’s relations with Tehran, Syria, OPEC and most recently Venezuela all threaten US …More
Viktor Yuschenko, president of Ukraine, has called for another parliamentary election in hopes of settling internal divisions symbolized largely by Ukraine’s leading three politicians - Yuschenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovich. ++ This must be a …More
The West is “pushing away” Russia, not the other way around. ++ The US needs to see Russia’s point of view for a change. ++ At the end of the Cold War, there was “no move to meet Russia partway;” instead, the US “talked away” Russian attempts at integration …More
Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: Russia’s authoritarian tendencies will continue to make it a threat to international security. Allowing Russia to define and act within a self-proclaimed sphere of interest will not make anyone safer. …More
Moscow’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia does not correlate with universal approval, and an international dialogue concerning the status of Georgia is set to begin. ++ Europe has proven itself too dissolute to confront Russia …More
Recent developments have greatly reduced the chances of a war against Iran. ++ Washington had planned to conduct air strikes against Iran from Georgian soil. ++ Russian intervention makes it impossible, which has “strengthened Iran’s …More
Russia’s military is almost an obsolete force due to poor training and poor quality of armaments. ++ Russia’s defense budget is just 7% of US spending. ++ It is unlikely that Russia will be able to afford the $200 billion needed …More
NATO has lost itself in the in Caucasus conflict. ++ Medvedev has repeatedly outlined his plans for a EU security architecture - he views his country’s security interests neglected. ++ The EU has almost disqualified itself from …More
Mark Brzezinski: It is unlikely that there is a Kremlin “master plan” guiding Russia’s actions toward her neighbors - her actions are driven variably by ambition and nostalgia, confusion or misinterpretation, irritation or resentment. The West’s goal should be to make Russia understand that working together with the US and EU will make it more prosperous, secure and free. …More
We are too easily impressed by the Russian bear. ++ “Moscow remains bent on ignoring the devastating truth: The nation is not just sick but dying.” ++ The population is declining, the economy is totally dependent on oil revenues, and the public health crisis “verges …More
US incursions into Cambodia, which led to its destabilization and the rise of the Khmer Rouge, should be remembered. ++ The same mistake is being made in Pakistan, where the dangers are far greater. ++ Undermining Pakistan does not help …More
Pakistan can no longer play its “dangerous double-game”: accepting money form the US while also supporting the Taliban and other extremists. ++ General Kayani has appointed a new spy chief, Lt. Gen Ahmed Shuja, who must work to …More
Alexandros Petersen & Ryan R. Miller: Poland and Lithuania can play an important role in advancing U.S. priorities in the “New East Europe.” …More
Ralf Fuecks: There is a tendency to ignore discomfiting facts so as not to disturb good relations with Russia. This approach, which borders on Russian blackmail, is a categorical failure. Moscow needs to be integrated into the EU fold; but at the same time, the EU must be willing to evince a willingness to face the right conflict at the right time. …More
Memo 8: Atlantic Community members conclude that the EU, acting in coordination with the UN, is in the best position to negotiate a peaceful solution. The US, Russia, Georgia, NATO, and others must consider their future strategies carefully. …More
President Bush’s decision to allow US military operations within Pakistan shows how desperate the situation is becoming. ++ But, if the Taliban and other extremists are to be permanently subdued, it must be done by Pakistan itself. ++ The US …More
Askarbek Erkinovich Mambetaliev: Many commentators are looking to Kyrgyzstan to express its “creed” about the Russia-Georgia conflict, considering Kyrgyzstan a key country in Central Asia. It seems no one wants to cross the “older brother” Russia. Therefore, President Kurmanbek Bakiev must act wisely in this situation. …More
Hall Gardner: Moscow’s decision to recognize South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence has begun to backfire: Russia has been widely criticized for its actions and the events in Georgia could provoke nationalist claims for independence within Russia itself. Redefining the concept of “independence” might be a way out of the crisis. …More
If Russia is to believe that the anti-missile base in Poland will not be used against it, US and its allies have to stop making “cosmetic political gestures” and give concrete guarantees. ++ Statements about Kremlin’s …More
In July President Bush decided to increase attacks by US forces against the Taliban in tribal areas. ++ This increase is in response to the Taliban’s growing strength in Pakistan, more attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan, and an increase in …More
Russia’s recent actions make it look like the Cold War is back, but Russia is still a poor, weak country. ++ Russia’s military is no match for NATO and their backup nuclear arsenal is unlikely to play a role in conflicts. ++ Moscow can claim few …More
A growing number of voices call for Saakashvili’s resignation due to his felonious decision to bomb Zchinwali. ++ In spite of the government’s rhetoric, which tries to justify any efforts to keep South Ossetia, the opposition calls for an …More
Colette Grace Mazzucelli: The US, acting in coordination with the EU, should address the crisis in Georgia with a strong humanitarian effort and a firm, yet non-isolating, stance toward Russia. As foreign policy concerns are compounded by domestic challenges, the next US administration must prudently tackle economic problems and re-define America’s role in world affairs. …More
Ukraine is approaching its third election in two years, a sign of its government’s volatility. ++ In response, the EU should put Ukraine on a clear road to accession, an albeit controversial move that is nevertheless in its vital interest. ++ …More
Christoph Bertram: No one should have been surprised at the way in which Russia has treated tiny and weak Georgia. What is surprising, however, is the eagerness with which many western governments continue to pretend that they can wield effective influence on Russia’s behavior in the Caucasus. …More
Leonie Holthaus: The EU should serve as a mediator in the Russian-Georgian dispute. This role requires that the EU does not take sides with one conflicting party but rather balance its criticism. Even if a position like this is perceived as “hesitant” in the US press, it may contribute to resolving the conflict by diplomatic means. …More
Intelligence sharing between the US and Turkey has forced the PKK out of the countryside and into the cities, bringing their violent attacks with them. ++ Further security measures, such as protected bus routes and tightened …More
David Francis: The EU must take a strong yet cooperative stance toward Russia. The next US administration must regain its moral standing in international politics. Ultimately, Moscow must understand that its recent actions in Georgia are unacceptable. …More
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan lead the region as two countries
that have successfully harnessed their natural resources allowing them to grow
their economies and avoid the apparent “natural resource curse” that plagues
many …More
“The attack on Georgia will go down not as the dawn of a new era of Russian power but as a major strategic blunder.” ++ Russia thought it had little to lose, but it has driven its neighbors, like Poland and Ukraine, into the …More
Judy Fu: The situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is a reflection of the sorry state of affairs for millions of people living under unrecognized de facto government or in secessionist territories. There are important lessons to be learned here in the need to engage non-state actors. …More
Will Turkey side with the US, its NATO ally, and give it access to the Black Sea to assist Georgia, or will it choose Russia? ++ Russia is warning Turkey that it will hold it responsible if US ships do not leave. ++ Turkey depends on …More
Andreas Umland: A justification for Russia’s recent invasion of Georgia was that it had to protect its citizens in South Ossetia. There is, however, a subtle difference between a state’s protection of its citizens living abroad, and its defense of citizens creating their own state within another country …More
It was Saakashvili’s behavior that forced Russia to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. ++ Relations of different nations living in one state have to be handled with great sensitivity. ++ Russia respects its minorities and …More
The agenda for cooperation with Russia looks doubtful but safe havens for cooperation still exist. ++ For instance, the entire civil and military nuclear agenda opens room for diplomacy. ++ However, no single European institution …More
The crucial question at the upcoming European head of state meeting is about the right of self-determination in the context of the Caucasus crises. ++ EU foreign policy towards Kosovo indicates that it is an advocate of self-determination; …More
There is little the United States can do to help Georgia. ++ Russia, with its nuclear weapons, oil, dollar reserves and seat on the UN Security Council, has too much leverage on US foreign policy, so banishing Russia from the G8 would be …More
Matthew Derek Crosston: The West needs some serious balance in the way it analyzes and discusses the Georgian conflict. Academics, diplomats, and journalists have come forward with a united response to Ossetia: Russia is showing ‘imperialist ambitions’ and ‘a disproportionate reaction.’ This is ridiculous. …More
Even though both Washington and Warsaw deny it, it was the Russian attack on Georgia that broke the stalemate in negotiations and pushed Polish government towards signing the missile defence treaty on Wednesday. ++ A garrison of …More
Volodymyr Horbach: Consequences of the recent conflict in Georgia will be as serious and global as those after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Ukraine’s position in this conflict is especially uncomfortable as it needs to preserve good neighborly relations with both Georgia and Russia. Kiev should not, therefore, take sides but take part in the peacekeeping mission. …More
Marek Swierczynski: Even though technically Russia won the war, the victory will paradoxically weaken Russia’s position towards its western partners, especially the US. Military action against Georgia – however limited in scale – is a symbolic resurrection of Russia’s imperial ambitions and will thus strengthen transatlantic partnership. …More
Ryan R. Miller: Central European countries are, on balance, divided, not united, when it comes to Russian energy supply dominance. Washington should find ways to step up its involvement and combat both the symptoms of Central Europe’s energy security ‘schism’ as well as the disease itself. …More
Wess Mitchell: The United States should announce its intention to transfer the entire Europe-based American military establishment to new locations in Central Europe, because many of the EU’s largest states are more interested in avoiding a rupture with Moscow than in protecting the vital interests of the Union’s eastern members. …More
US journalism was famous for its independence and professionalism, but recent coverage of the Russia-Georgia conflict is unfair and unbalanced. ++ The so-called free press automatically took Georgia’s side and ignored or distorted events in …More
If the world allows Russia to crush Georgia’s democracy and independence, it will give a green light to all authoritarian governments. ++ The historical echoes of Finland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia are deafening and only Western …More
This week’s events in Georgia proved the failure of the Western policy of belligerence towards the Kremlin. ++ It failed to take into account the complexity of the ethnic, religious, and nationalist structures in Georgia and even …More
The clashes in the Caucasus show once again how explosive secessionist conflicts can be. ++ According to international law, they endanger global peace and only the UN and the OSCE are authorized to manage the resolution of such conflicts. …More
Richard Holbrooke and Ronald D. Asmus: Moscow’s behavior in Georgia poses a direct challenge to European and international order. Georgia deserves our solidarity and support. Only strong transatlantic cooperation can put an end to this conflict and begin to repair the immense damage done. …More
Richard Holbrooke and Ronald D. Asmus: The trial of Radovan Karadzic will answer many open questions of the Balkan events during 1990’s. Some reports suggest quite a disgusting picture about “realpolitik” behind the noble statements of the international community. …More
Of all the post-Soviet states, Georgia has come furthest in the fight to strenghten democracy and independent foreign policy and that is precisely what Russia wants to thwart. ++ The fact that Russia was entrusted with the …More
Russia has continued to recognize Georgia’s regional unity and merely responded to the Georgian attack on South Ossetia. ++ To call it an attack on “small, defenseless Georgia” is hypocritical and inhumane. ++ Western encouragement prompted …More
The current conflict is not only about Russia and Georgia, but also represents the US-Russian competition for control over the strategically important transit routes for oil and gas. ++ The Georgian President must have aimed at American …More
Western support of Kosovo’s declaration of independence and NATO’s assurance of Georgia and Ukraine’s eventual Atlantic Alliance membership erode Russian influence on former states of the USSR. ++ Georgia pays a high price …More
Stefan Wolff: South Ossetia might well become Georgia’s Chechnya. The current escalation of military hostilities has put the likelihood of a sustainable settlement off even further. The European Union is the best-placed conflict manager in the South Caucasus. …More
Tamuna Kekenadze: On Saturday morning, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili requested the Parliament to endorse his decision on declaring martial law on the entire territory of Georgia. The Parliament has approved the presidential decree immediately. …More
Tamuna Kekenadze: Kosovo’s unilateral proclamation of independence played a key role in events we see in South Ossetia today. Do we still have time to close the Pandora box and if yes - how? …More
From the Editorial Team: Georgia and Russia are on the brink of a full-fledged war. How should the European Union, NATO and individual Western governments respond to the current crisis? …More
EU realizes it is time to solve the festering conflicts in the Union’s new neighborhood: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. ++ But Moscow has an interest in preserving this “simmering status quo” and delays anything that …More
Grigol Ubiria: NATO’s eastern enlargement is too often solely considered from the perspective of Russia’s right to defend its interests on its borders. Little or no attention has been paid to factors forcing former Soviet republics, particularly Georgia and Ukraine, to rush to join the alliance. …More
America declares it stands up for human rights; it condemns the regime in Burma and calls for fair democratic elections in Zimbabwe. ++ However, it is doing so only where it is convenient: human rights infringements in China and Saudi Arabia or the fact …More
It has to be said out loud that the EU project will not be complete as long as all Balkan countries are not allowed to join: letting in Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania is crucial for progress and peace on the …More
Yousaf Raza Gilani, the new civilian prime minister of Pakistan, is visiting Washington this week. ++ Talks between the leaders of Pakistan and the US are an opportunity to recast bilateral relations and start a closer cooperation to …More
The arrest of the Bosnian Serb leader, political mastermind of the Bosnian genocide, Radovan Karadzic on charges of war crimes is a clear indication that ultranationalists no longer speak for Serbia ++ The decision to abide by the EU’s requirement …More
Grigol Ubiria: The years to come in the Balkan region cannot be as bleak as those of the recent past. Despite uncertainties regarding developments in Kosovo, the following scenarios offer likely alternatives and demonstrate the region has a future. …More
Hopes for friendly relations with Russia, running high in the 1990s, were ruined by the Bush administration. ++ NATO membership offer to Georgia and Ukraine and plans to install elements of missile defense shield in Poland and the …More
Grigol Ubiria: As a result of an international donors conference, Kosovo has been given some 1.2 million euros. What for and how is this money going to be used when it reaches destination? …More
Memo 7: The members of the Atlantic Community believe that Ukraine belongs to Europe. Ukraine needs to be integrated into Western alliances without undermining Western-Russian relations. …More
The prospect of war between Georgia and Russia is increasingly realistic. ++ We must stand up for Georgia and prevent the war as it could lead to the breakdown of Russia’s relations with the West and destabilize a territory so crucial for …More
It seems that the importance of liberty and democracy in Russia is inversely correlated to the prices of oil and gas. ++ While denouncing Mugabe, Council of Europe secretary-general recently expressed his admiration for Putin and Medvedev, whose hold on …More
The elusive perception of the West as a threat is still alive in Russia. ++ But Moscow’s self-destructive confrontation with the West and its fantasy of allying with China can be halted if Ukrainian europeanization succeeds. ++ Ukraine is …More
Marek Swierczynski: Commotion and despair are in the air after Poland rejected the US bid to host ballistic defence system. The government is evasive in public statements and sends opposing signals in diplomacy. The MD project, once regarded as a unique historic opportunity, seems to be drifting away. …More
Joerg Beige & Arianna de Mario: There are still cases of politically motivated trials that lack basic lawful principles in Russia. We should not be afraid to appear ‘russophobic’ and remind the Russian authorities that they are obliged to comply with international law standards. …More
Conventional wisdom which treated President Medvedev as a mere continuation of Putin is oversimplified. ++ We are witnessing one of the most promising periods in Russian history. ++ The new Russian government with two centers of power …More
Besides a Europe of markets, trade, and economic liberalization the French President Nicolas Sarkozy calls for a “protective Europe.” ++ With this, he intends to assuage the discontent of people who feel abandonned by the …More
Hall Gardner: NATO’s Bucharest Summit in April 2008 did not fully address the question of how to create a viable system of security for the volatile region of eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. As eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Caucasus are all riddled with secessionist and irredentist movements since Soviet collapse, it will require concerted US, EU, and Russian attention if a major crisis is to be averted. …More
Heinrich Bonnenberg: To Russia, its current western border is a border that stands for loss and dishonor. This border is an open, bleeding wound on the Russian body. The security pact that the Russian president recently presented in Berlin could be helpful in overcoming historical grievances and bringing Western Europe and Russia closer together. …More
Most EU leaders want to continue with the ratification of the Lisbon treaty regardless of the disastrous outcome of the Irish vote. ++ Sarkozy and Merkel in particular are pushing for the treaty to be implemented, yet only governments and …More
The USA is not performing the transition to conventional weapons, which was meant to lessen the country’s dependence on nuclear weapons for defense. ++ US politicians and media are using the claim that Russia is boosting its …More
In the 80s Ronald Reagan warned Europe about becoming dependent on Russian energy. ++ With Gazprom supplying over 40 percent of Germany’s natural gas, this prediction is becoming a reality. ++ A question for the future, is …More
Hall Gardner: A move towards Ukrainian NATO membership would strain relations with Russia and have serious consequences. In the short-term, Ukraine should remain “neutral”, while the EU introduces new, and expands existing confidence building economic and political areas of cooperation with Kiev and Moscow. In the long-term, Europe should seek to develop a confederal relationship with both Ukraine and Russia. …More
Russia’s main challenge is the modernization of its economy, politics, and society. ++ President Medvedev has singled out the rule of law as a particularly significant aspect of the reforms. ++ The EU should support these reform …More
Whatever Putin and Medvedev said, there is no doubt that the transfer of power towards Moscow’s White House has begun. ++ The head of the presidential administration has called for a change to the Constitution, with the purpose of strengthening …More
David Francis: Germany should champion Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. However, this support should come with conditions. …More
For a long time Turkey has been a haven of geopolitical stability. ++ Yet the Iraq War has subjected Turkey’s virtually unquestioned alliance with the US to reassessment.++ Turkey’s general consensus on its EU candidacy has started …More
While Medvedev “struck a friendly pose in Berlin,” future action or lack of thereof will be the true test of Russian-German relations. ++ Germany must be careful to avoid becoming “a mouthpiece of Russian interests” and hurting …More
Russia is changing. ++ The new Russian president’s speeches in Berlin about the importance of free press, of a broad middle class, and of the acknowledgement of mistakes made during the Prague spring are more than astonishing. ++ Although his …More
Heinrich Bonnenberg: Germany and the EU must give stronger credit to Ukraine’s emergence as an independent democracy in the tradition of Europe’s historic liberal movements. The EU should quickly enable Ukrainian accession, but NATO membership should not be pursued, as this would likely exasperate tensions with Russia. …More
Since economic sanctions are the best means to cause unrest among the Iranian population, they are also the most effective tool to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ++ However, Russia needs to be on board. ++ The Western offer to the …More
Western calls for restraint are ineffective as tensions rise in Georgia over Abkhazia, the region where Russia supports separatist aspirations that threaten Georgia’s national unity. ++ “Moscow seems determined to provoke Tbilisi to take …More
Compromise has yet to be reached on the issue of Macedonia’s official name and national identity, as Greece recently blocked the country from joining NATO, out of fears that a recognized Macedonian nation state would mobilize separatist …More
Senior Afghan official, Mohammad Z. Wahdats is skeptical that there would be less stability in Afghanistan’s north without the Germans. ++ “For the issue of security, we don’t need them any more. We solve all our problems by ourselves.” ++ …More
Memo 6: Members of the Atlantic Community are convinced that NATO needs to redefine its future role and relationship with Russia. Fundamental change, however, is unlikely to occur in the near future and the NATO-Russian relationship may worsen. …More
Andreas Umland: US “anti-Russian” rhetoric is not that particular. One can hear similar voices in both Western and Eastern Europe. In the unlikely case that Russia becomes a truly democratic country, much of what Andrei Tsygankov laments in his recent article in “The Moscow Times” would simply disappear. …More
Though the Eurovision Song Contest should not be reduced to politics, the extent to which political considerations surpass artistic ones is undeniable. ++ Russia’s victory resulted from the overwhelming support of former …More
President Medvedev’s visit to China has important symbolic significance. ++ Driven by their shared goals of safeguarding and promoting national interests in an era of US dominance, Beijing and Moscow have grown increasingly …More
Uncertainty remains as to whether Serbia will turn East or West, but the radicalization of public opinion means the emerging government will have to defend Serb interests in Kosovo and encourage the de facto partition. ++ The …More
Over the last 14 years, Lukashenko has secured Minsk’s sovereignty, improved the wealth of the population, and raised the interest of European investors. ++ Yet these achievements mask rampant corruption and lack of democracy. ++ Since both …More
Andrei Tsygankov: The US presidential candidates are increasingly playing the Russophobia card in their campaigns. In addressing Russia, Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton have resorted to insulting President Vladimir Putin as a KGB spy who has no soul. Russophobia is truly back into fashion, as Senator Joseph Biden admitted last week.
…More
Marek Swierczynski: One year since Poland launched key energy initiative that would decrease Central Europe’s fuel dependence from Russia, its results are less than impressive. But still declarations and documents seem much easier to prepare than pipelines, and soon new ones are to follow. …More
Despite hopes for change in the West, the new Russian president is hardly going to initiate a new foreign policy. ++ While Medvedev’s liberal instincts are debatable, the forces arrayed around and against him remained the same. ++ …More
Andreas Umland: The rise of Dmitry Medvedev will mobilize the large anti-Western constituency in various sectors of the Russian elite. We may soon observe the emergence of another, different “tower” in the Russian state apparatus around which Moscow’s various nationalist politicians and publicists will unite. …More
Former Yeltsin supporters are rallying around Medvedev in the hope of setting Russia on a new, more reconciliatory course with the West. ++ After years of symbolic resistance and support of anti-American regimes, Medvedev wishes to cut …More
valentine anatolevich akishkin: The issue of NATO enlargement and membership to NATO divides the Ukrainian people. The split reflects the countries division along ethnical and geographical lines. Integrating Ukraine into the Alliance would more likely lead to confusion and conflict than democracy. …More
Andreas Umland: Sooner or later it is to be expected that Medvedev’s deeper political beliefs – his apparently liberal and democratic views – will come to the fore. …More
President-elect Dmitry Medvedev realizes that high economic growth cannot be sustained as long as Russia relies primarily on macroeconomic policy and rising oil prices, and inequality and corruption remain widespread. ++ His rhetoric …More
Japan and Russia’s planned cooperation in fields of energy, transportation, and the environment require settling their territorial dispute. ++ So as to expand its influence in the booming Asia-Pacific region and maintain its volumes of …More
Andreas Umland: A conspirological form of anti-Americanism has become Russia’s new foreign policy doctrine. Paradoxically, the Russian elite, at the same time, wants to build closer relations with the US’s major partner in continental Europe - Germany. …More
Andreas Umland: Don’t overestimate Berlin’s statements concerning Russian interests in the former USSR …More
Andreas Goldthau: The extent to which Russia’s resources are sustaining the country’s growth and influencing its foreign policy tends to be overstated. Having to adapt to domestic and geopolitical circumstances, and the rules of the global market considerably restricts the Kremlin’s room for maneuver. …More
Andre Kelleners: NATO membership states should consult with Russia to determine a common understanding of NATO’s role. Selected Partnership-for-Peace countries should eventually join the alliance as full members together with and at the same time as Russia. …More
Mark Burgess: Afghanistan is NATO’s most pressing crisis, but President Bush distracted the Alliance with his push for NATO enlargement. Georgia and Ukraine can wait. Afghanistan cannot. …More
Andreas Umland: It’s accepted by all Ukrainian political forces that the country’s entry into NATO will have to be decided by a referendum. Thus, no serious application for membership will be put forward within the next years. The current debate about its NATO membership is in actual fact surrealistic. …More
Marek Swierczynski: After a political upheaval and embarassment for President Kaczyński, Polish Parliament passed the bill to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon. The victory of the pro-EU lobby backed by overwhelming public support should not be overestimated as the debate did not touch the real issues behind Lisbon. …More
Medvedev will not transform a system created by his mentor, to which he contributed, and thanks to which he enjoys uncontested primacy. ++ Only economic difficulties and hostility to the intended modernization could bolster conservative opposition and result in change. ++ Russia’s political future will depend on the executive team’s ability to sustain growth, but liberalization remains unlikely.
Nothing opposes Yeltsin’s and Putin’s terms in office more strikingly than their interpretation and understanding. ++ The West’s demonization of Putin is in stark contrast with high levels of consent and popularity at home. ++ The West should not …More
War in Iraq might decrease US ability to preserve peace in East Asia - a serious concern for Japan. ++ Japan relies on the Middle East for 90 percent of its oil - stability in the region is vital. ++ North Korea will never dismantle nuclear weapons without US influence. ++ Japan should maintain close relationship with US - decline in US power is not in Japan’s national interest.
Energy exports are enabling Russia to be increasingly assertive and object to the US’ deployment of 10 missiles near its borders. ++ If it is possible concerning terrorism and nuclear energy, cooperation between the two countries may spread to more areas, but regarding European missile defense, the US should stand its ground. ++ Giving in would only lead to
greater intransigence from the Kremlin.
Aside from entertaining international tensions to maintain high oil prices, Russian foreign policy has been dominated by ambivalence towards the West. ++ With the crucial importance of Russians’ foreign assets, the West should not be provoked but …More
Aiming primarily to qualify Serbia for membership in the EU, the Democratic Party of Tadic offers the country the most sensible economic, strategic, and diplomatic solution. ++ Kosovo’s declaration of independence may have …More
The development of modern western democracies in the last century linked economic growth with political and cultural modernization. ++ Russia and China seem to demonstrate there is a viable authoritarian alternative to democracy and …More
Lukashenko requires economic stability to maintain his power and popularity. ++ With Russia threatening to double once again the price of natural gas imports to the country, the president has been forced to take liberal measures and …More
Dora Bakoyannis: Greece supports the enlargement of NATO in the Western Balkans with the invitations to Croatia and Albania, but the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s “intransigeant stance and its actions of an irredentist and nationalistic logic” are unacceptable. …More
Ryan R. Miller: Possible Polish-Iranian energy cooperation puts U.S. policy makers between a rock and a hard place, as America finds itself committed both to isolating the Islamic Republic and supporting Polish efforts to outflank Russia’s Gazprom. …More
With broad-based support within Russia for the direction Putin is taking the country and high oil prices, the US can no longer expect Russia to merely acquiesce to its policy preferences. ++ America will have to choose between adamantly pursuing …More
The Russian economy is weaker than it appears. Inflation is in double figures and high growth has been dependent on commodity prices. ++ Furthermore political stability rests on a perversion of the meaning of democracy, and the Caucasus …More
The EU needs to tie Kazakhstan to the West while it still can. ++ Kazakhstan has a secular tradition that can and should be encouraged, given surrounding “Islamic arc of instability.” ++ European Parliament shouldn’t reject Kazakhstan for ENP membership. ++ Western ties should be secured before Russia and China draw Kazakhstan further into spheres of influence.
Kosovo’s declaration of independence is equally one of dependency - but it’s the “least worst” outcome. ++ Europe is pushing for Kosovo to move from protectorate to EU member state, without allowing it to achieve full independence. ++ Kosovo’s independence does not make the region any more unstable. ++ Serbia has a choice: to sulk, or to start working towards reconstruction and the EU.
Kosovo’s independence weakens international institutions, which have been waning in influence since end of Cold War. ++ UN and NATO unable to regulate international conflicts. ++ Weaker countries most likely to support …More
The so called “next billion” consumers come from Brazil, China, India, Eastern Europe and even parts of Africa and Asia and represent the largest untapped consumer market in the world. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that these new …More
With the world’s attention now focusing on the unpredictable outcome of the American elections, it is easy to forget about their more predictable, but equally important equivalent in Russia. Recently named Time’s “Person of the Year,” …More
Ruby Gropas: Through an examination of the hopes and expectations surrounding Western Balkan EU accession, Dr. Gropas concludes that without the will to accede — on everyone’s part — the Western Balkans won’t have the capacity to do so. …More
Memo 4: Members of the Atlantic Community are mostly optimistic about the future of Kosovo and conflict resolution in the Western Balkans. The EU has a key role in this region and policy is in the right track, but, of course, big challenges still lie ahead. …More
Thomas de Waal: The simmering conflicts in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia could easily flare up. Although they are driven by unresolved regional disputes, both the US and Russia loom large in the background. …More
Drawing on the US Personnel Reliability Program, officials now check applicants and personnel for characteristics that might make them more likely to betray their nation’s secrets. Religious fervor is among the ones most …More
Elizabeth Pond: The EU and the UN can build on recent progress to resolve the last unfinished business from the 1990s’ Balkan wars. There is still a long way to go, though, to bring Kosovo under EU supervision and persuade Serbia to opt for a European future. …More
Alexandros P. Mallias: A clear prospect of EU membership is the most effective tool in helping countries of the western Balkans overcome their current challenges. Mallias presents a new strategic agenda for the western Balkans building on the Thessaloniki Agenda of 2003. …More
Alexandros Petersen: I conclude that Putin’s United Russia administration has framed Sunday’s polls as a referendum on his popularity, ensuring extra support for the party. For all of the president’s finagling, however, the only certainty is that his means of retaining power in Russia next year will confound the pundits’ predictions. …More
Elizabeth Pond: I contend that the EU plan for Kosovo’s “supervised independence” will avoid the historical mistakes that could end up fueling Serbian resentment and ultranationalism. Offering eventual European Union membership to Serbia is a prudent step that will encourage Serbian cooperation. …More
Marco Overhaus: 2007 and 2008 could be decisive years for the region. A difficult balance must be struck, between a renewed and robust EU engagement in the Western Balkans and the need to make reform efforts locally self-supporting. …More
Russia’s influence once again looms over the Baltic countries, and their position within the European Union and NATO is not mitigating the threat, argues International Herald Tribune journalist Adam Ellick. New Russian investments in media and …More
Europe has become heavily reliant on Russia to meet its energy needs. This trend undermines Europe’s self-confidence and jeopardizes its geopolitical position as well as that of the United States, says Ariel …More
Op-Ed Contributor to the New York Times Leon Aron insists Russia’s premiership does not provide Mr. Putin access to wide-ranging presidential powers, and explores Putin’s prospects of retaining …More
Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: I offer a transatlantic perspective on what early elections could mean for Poland’s international standing. Current polls suggest that despite all of the government’s blunders, early voting may not spell the end of the Kaczyński moment. …More
Transportation of energy resources was top of the agenda during a recent talk between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, reports News Central Asia. Presidents Nazarbaev and Berdymuhamedov said their countries …More
Niklas Keller: of the Atlantic Initiative calls corruption one of the greatest obstacles to development in Afghanistan. The international community must create an incentive structure at both the governmental and local levels which is more attractive than corrupt activities. …More
Oleksandr Chalyi: I call for an enhanced bilateral agreement between the EU and Ukraine with integration and association as its ultimate goal. Yuschenko’s New Realism must aim to meet the Copenhagen criteria within ten years, unilaterally if necessary. …More
Irem Köker: I identify the issues to watch for between Turkey and the United States. Although the majority party remains in power, new developments on the Kurds, the Armenian genocide question and Turkey’s energy deal with Iran could have lasting consequences. …More
Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: The US course of action on statehood for Kosovo will be a major test for the newly fortified transatlantic relationship. …More
Yiorghos Leventis: The AKP’s recent election victory is not simply a blessing for the party: the specter of violent reaction by the country’s military establishment still looms large. The EU should reward Turkish reforms towards EU membership. …More
Alexandros Petersen: Russia’s recent Cold War-esque behavior is a wake-up call for the transatlantic alliance to overcome internal divisions and strengthen energy routes from the Caspian and Central Asia. …More
James Andrew Lewis: I use the assault on Estonian computers to explain the difference between real terror and cyber mischief. Governments must take practical steps to minimize disruption in case of an attack. …More
GM Roper: If Germany expects US help in the future, it must stay the course in Afghanistan now. The Bundeswehr should carry its share of the coalition burden without complaint as part of OEF. …More
Niels Annen: I question the sustainability of Operation Enduring Freedom. And I see deteriorating coordination between ISAF and OEF and asks whether it is time to choose between the two. …More
Wess Mitchell: The growing rift between Germany and Poland could do damage to US and European interests. Three postwar principles could help to repair relations. …More
Ulf Gartzke: I warn of a looming “nightmare scenario” when EU member states could split from the US and each other over independent status for Kosovo. Results from the latest Bush-Putin summit could raise the stakes. …More
Dr. Isaac Kfir, researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, examines threats to the Pakistani state and international implications relating to Pakistan’s role in the war on terror. Islamic, …More
Anatol Lieven: The political stakes in Pakistan are the highest in 40 years. It is time to create a new, firmer and more institutionalized civilian-military relationship. …More
There is growing doubt among Turks that democracy can thrive within their country, reports Robert Ruby of the Pew Research Center. Pew Global Attitudes surveys indicate that, in conjunction with recent …More
Karsten Voigt: Shifting German troops out of the north of Afghanistan would be detrimental to the country. The troops should stay with their original mission, as they are providing significant support to the allied forces. …More
The looming Russian gas deficits demand a readjustment of the European energy policy, argue Alan Riley and Frank Umbach in the current global edition of Internationale Politik. Riley, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in …More
Bastian Giegerich and Raffaello Pantucci: We press Angela Merkel to push through the recent gridlock in EU-Russia relations. Merkel should use the end of her EU presidency to adopt a unified and robust stance towards Russia, one more in line with the concerns of former Soviet satellites who now represent the EU’s eastern borders. …More
Günter Nooke: The EU should use stronger language towards Russia as regards the persistent erosion of human rights in the country. The unresolved politically motivated murders, discrimination of minorities and excessive police violence against peaceful protesters in the country cannot go unmentioned at today’s EU-Russia summit. …More
Alexander Graf Lambsdorff: I find that Russia must be encouraged to participate in European democracy. The EU and US must realize that interdependence with Russia can offer benefits beyond status quo diplomacy. …More
Higher engagement of the EU and the USA in the Black Sea zone could limit European dependence on Russian energy and bring stability to the region, writes Ronald D. Asmus of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The Atlantic …More
Despite a rhetoric of cooperation, Russia might constitute more of an impediment than a partner in the fight against Islamist terrorism and the promotion of democracy in the Middle East. Igor Khrestin and John …More
NATO troops should adopt three main policies in Afghanistan, says Rory Stewart. First, they should develop a more considerate approach towards tribal communities in order to distinguish between friends and “real” enemies; …More
The US-Russian relationship during President Putin’s tenure has seesawed between mutual cooperation and confrontation, says Lionel Beehner of the US Council on Foreign Relations. The three main reasons for these recent tensions …More
Talibanistan, the tribal region of Pakistan which forms the border with Afghanistan, is seen by Time Asia correspondent Aryn Baker as the breeding ground for a new generation of terrorists and a hideaway for al-Qaeda …More
Western media characterizations of Russia as an authoritarian or even totalitarian state are untrue, argues Anna Arutunyan. The Moscow News editor sets out two reasons why Putin’s Russia defies Western perceptions: first, the …More
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