Global Challenges
Proliferation
With new sanctions in place, the European Union is attempting to get Iran back to the table for talks on its nuclear program. ++ “A new diplomatic window of opportunity” is opening at the end of Ramadan, as EU High Representative Catherine Ashton plans …More
North America, Europe, and Russia should work together to create a Euro-Atlantic security system based on trilateral missile-defense cooperation. ++ Political rather than technical obstacles have been the main stumbling blocks. ++ …More
Alexandra Dobra: The apparent obligation of all States to ratify the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) faces three antagonistic variables; namely the State sovereignty, the global anarchy and the economic prospects. …More
The recent fuel deal among Turkey, Brazil, and Iran was merely an attempt for Brazil’s Da Silva and Turkey’s Erdogan to prove they can be powerful players on the global stage. ++ Both Brazil and Turkey are young democracies …More
The recent “success” in getting Russia to sign onto a new round of Iranian sanctions is being terribly oversold. ++ Moreover, Russia’s recent commitment to sign onto a new round of Iranian sanctions is not a …More
Greg Randolph Lawson: At the end of the Second World War it would have taken a great leap of faith to believe that Great Power conflict would end and that major industrialized nations would not fight amongst themselves. However, this is for the most part what has transpired. Have we seen the last of the balance of power struggles? …More
A deal orchestrated by Russia for the swapping of Iranian low-enriched uranium has given the Kremlin a diplomatic victory over the US. Though Washington was quick to dismiss the deal as a delaying tactic that will not stall the implementation …More
“The deal struck Monday by Iran with Brazil and Turkey will do nothing to restrain Tehran’s nuclear program. It could, however, derail the Obama administration’s effort to focus international pressure on Iran and buy the regime more time to enrich …More
Hans Rühle: Brazil is almost certainly developing nuclear weapons. The country’s earlier nuclear weapons programs and the policy of President Lula da Silva’s government suggest that Brazil’s quest for power and international recognition will ultimately lead her to discard her commitment to non-proliferation and put an end to President Obama’s vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. …More
A recent memo drafted by Defense Secretary Robert Gates alarmed many when he stated that the Obama administration currently has no contingency plan should Iran develop a nuclear weapon. ++ “The public signs of the administration’s …More
Though it seems like a concession to Republicans, drilling offshore may be an appeal for Iranian sanctions. ++ “According to Steven David of Johns Hopkins University, expanding US oil production ‘could help around the …More
The Nuclear Security Summit held recently in Washington drew needed attention to the issue of securing loose nuclear material and resulted in some welcome commitments from nuclear countries in this regard. ++ However, “the final …More
President Obama’s efforts toward a world free of nuclear weapons will fail unless he concentrates on the underlying motives for countries obtaining nuclear arms. ++ Fear of a real or perceived enemy, aggression to control others, and a …More
Subrata Ghoshroy: Europe should not throw away a chance to move toward real disarmament by signing on to a costly and misguided missile defense program. Europe should recall the principles behind the now-defunct Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty before embarking on a missile defense venture against a fictitious Iranian threat. …More
Memo 19: A nuclear free world is an idealistic objective, but the aspiration towards it is an end in itself. The pursuit of Global Zero will discourage further nuclear proliferation. Atlantic-Community.org members recommend to focus on primary and intermediate steps towards nuclear abolition and not the ultimate goal of global zero.
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Obama should ignore attacks from Republicans over his most recent nuclear initiatives. ++ Decreasing nuclear stockpiles is the right thing to do. ++ Israel’s decision to send a “low-level” representative to this …More
Greg Randolph Lawson: Though heralded by many, the Obama’s new nuclear strategy is a misguided document that glosses over the relative stability nuclear weapons provide while reducing the credibility of deterrence when confronting nuclear proliferation. …More
President Obama is “taking important steps to make the world safer and bolster this [America’s] country’s credibility as it tries to constrain the nuclear ambitions of Iran, North Korea and others.” ++ Though the new policy prohibits use …More
The US and Russia’s new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) is an important step towards Obama’s goals of stronger diplomatic ties between the former rivals and a stronger front against North Korea and Iran. ++ The arms deal …More
Manasi Kulkarni-Kakatkar: India’s nuclear relations with world’s big powers have caused a great deal of friction. Next month’s Nuclear Security Summit is a chance for India to show its commitment to non-proliferation and to be a leader of setting up mechanisms for securing nuclear materials. …More
Baudouin Long: Iran’s nuclear ambition is not only a factor of concern for the Western powers but for its Arab neighbors as well. They have reacted to the Iranian threat by developing several strategies in compliance with the NPT. Nevertheless, they suffer from their disarray and should oppose a more united front to Iran. …More
“Sanctions are a sign of a failed policy.” ++ The Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, currently under consideration in the United States Congress, targets Iran’s civilian economy and will likely accomplish little in reshaping Iran’s …More
The Obama administration is currently working on new UN sanctions designed to cut off funding to Iranian nuclear and missile activities, as well as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s vast network of companies. ++ Chinese participation is a …More
Saeb Sal Kasm: Successful resolution of the Iranian nuclear dilemma requires creative and skillful diplomatic engagement. Otherwise, the parties risk further isolation, politically charged rhetoric, and eventually escalation toward military confrontation. …More
China has replaced Russia at the UN Security Council as the one remaining obstacle to coercive sanctions on Iran’s military nuclear ambitions. ++ The possible Chinese veto finds a sound echo among the emerging countries. ++ Brazil …More
US President’s move to give up on Czech and Polish missile defence projects for a new deployment in Romania a few months afterwards might be confusing at first sight. ++ It is in fact another sign of Obama’s shift towards a foreign …More
Iran’s well known nuclear ambitions prove American diplomatic engagement wrong. ++ There is a clear need for reconciliation between both realist and idealist approaches. ++ A balance can be reached by supporting the Green Revolution to ensure a …More
The United States boosts missile defence in Gulf States, sweeping away Obama’s renewed strategy towards Iran. ++ Washington’s foreign policy goes back to basics: military containment. ++ This move is also meant to deter Israel from …More
Antonio Buttitta: Iran is the only country in the Middle East that can not be challenged by Western powers without risking a severe unbalancing of global economies or an all out decent into war - a prospect that would be ultimately unsuccessful for all involved. Instead, rapid diplomacy must lead to effective negotiations, based on a new scheme. …More
Frank O'Donnell: On January 14, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists repositioned its ‘Doomsday Clock’ by only one minute, from five to six minutes to midnight. This incremental adjustment symbolizes the global uncertainty regarding the future of the nonproliferation regime. …More
Jerome Grossman: A world without nuclear weapons would do much in terms of security, but more so, it would enhance and protect the superpower status of the United States. Giving up nuclear weapons and accepting US hegemony may be the price humanity must pay to avert the threat of total annihilation. …More
The United States still has not ratified the anti-landmine Treaty. ++ So far, 156 nations have signed on, making the US the only NATO member still holding out. ++ The US has not produced any landmines since the convention in 1993 but the military …More
Differences between the United States and the Russian Federation since the end of the Cold War have bogged down the nuclear disarmament process. Since 96% of all nuclear weapons remain in the hands of the former adversaries, …More
The Obama administration needs to balance its approach towards Iran, by taking up its moral responsibilities. ++ Whilst the West has been placing the nuclear issue above all other concerns, Tehran has been establishing an “infrastructure for repression.” ++ …More
As Tehran once again moves past a UN deadline without taking action the West must take stock after 5 failed UN Security Council resolutions. ++ Iran is “dragging its feet over a next date for wider talks with America, three European governments, …More
President Obama’s intention of ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is “a profound mistake, as a ban on testing nuclear weapons would jeopardize American national security.” ++ The reliability of US nuclear weapons cannot be guaranteed without …More
In the fight against nuclear proliferation, Syria should not be forgotten. ++ The IAEA’s failure to get Damascus to reveal the history of its secret nuclear reactor, questions its ability to act as an effective watchdog. ++ The IAEA’s stategy of …More
Andreas Michael Bock: Iran is legally entitled to posses nuclear WMD - not inspite, but because of the NPT. The international treaty claims to apply equally to all contracting parties, but numerous exceptions have been made in the past. Then why should the NPT apply to Iran? …More
The recent revelation of Iran’s continued nuclear program was a successful intelligence coup for he US but has only served to intensify Iran’s stand. ++ “It follows that outside powers will have little chance of stopping the nuclear program through …More
Editorial Team: The Heinrich Böll conference brought a cast of leading scholars to the debate in Berlin last week. Credibility, feasibility and confidence building were all key words and vital to the agenda. In addition to presenting your Atlantic Memo we were there to cover the event and bring you the finest international arguments. …More
Roland Popp: The domestic crisis that arose in the wake of the presidential elections of 12 June 2009 constitutes a fundamental challenge to Iran’s political system, which is based largely on religious legitimacy. …More
Iran is finally now prepared to hold a meaningful and broad strategic dialogue with the West over its nuclear program. ++ Tehran “seems poised to benefit from a…positive gathering of the board…at the IAEA and strong backing from the 118 …More
Video Stream: Atlantic-Community.org has broadcasted live from the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s conference “A World Without Nuclear Weapons or Nuclear Anarchy?” Speakers from international politics, industry and civil society discussed the dangers posed by nuclear weapons in the 21st century’s world order. …More
Greg Randolph Lawson: Nuclear proliferation is a growing phenomena that will not go away. Current discussion on addressing this threat through disarmament, even if viewed in the long-term, is futile. It is time to view the problem realistically and come up with new deterrence postures. …More
Rachelle Richardson: The fact remains that states have to exist in a world where nuclear weapons exist. As we enter the second nuclear age, this fact competes against other emerging contemporary perspectives impacting on the foreign policy of state actors. What is certain is that traditional norms are being questioned a …More
Although “the protesters have been routed from the streets of Tehran, the political turmoil in Iran continues unabated behind the scenes.” ++ The leaders authorities are challenged by a group of religious and secular elites. ++ It is doubtful that the …More
As Obama’s September deadline for Iran’s compliance on nuclear proliferation approaches, the IAEA releases a progress report this week. ++ “Tehran is not looking forward to this prospect, which will likely worsen internal fissures in …More
Robert G. Gard: Global Zero is dependent on compliance, which in turn relies on mutual trust between states in the international system that weapons will not be concealed. This appears remote and subsequently so too does the feasibility of such a goal as complete nuclear disarmament. …More
Dieter M Dettke: Germany must take on more responsibility to shape a global system without nuclear weapons as it is in Berlin’s national interest to do so. Beginning with European & US disarmament the West can gain the moral authority it still needs to enforce the NPT regime. …More
Henry David Sokolski: Further proliferation of supposedly “peaceful” nuclear energy sources undermines the goal of Global Zero. We should replace the NPT concept of sharing technology in favor of limiting supplies, especially in trouble prone areas like the Middle East. …More
Hall Gardner: There are five points political leaders must be convinced of if a consensus is to emerge on disarmament. Global proliferation destabilizes the political economy of whole regions and nuclear warfare is undeniably genetically genocidal. This is not to mention that empirical proof shows that nuclear weapons pose little deterrent to engaging in conventional warfare. …More
Germany and the EU are considering massive sanctions against Tehran unless it shows signs of compliance with international calls for nuclear disarmament. ++ These may include the cessation of oil exports which account for 30% of Iran’s consumption …More
Bill Clinton’s trip to North Korea sets a dangerous precedent as the human factor overwhelms policy judgment. ++ The visit “enables Kim Jong Il to convey to North Koreans, and perhaps to other countries, that his country is being accepted into …More
Wolfgang Fischer: The desire for complete nuclear disarmament is as old as nuclear weapons themselves. But a nuclear weapon-free world is a visionary project for a world still to come. While arms control is necessary, this must only go to a certain level. …More
The Cold War is over, so why continue disarmament talks designed to deal with it? ++ Recent decisions to cut nuclear stockpiles have been unilateral, so there is no need to waste effort and prestige on a fresh bilateral treaty. ++ Any deal would not …More
The UN is taking important steps to improve the treaties on which disarmament is based. ++ The NPT must be updated so that the disarmament process will be reliably verified, rooted in legal obligations, and visible to the public. ++ The new CTBT …More
Thomas Speckmann: The nuclear disarmament talks between Obama and Medvedev have been much celebrated, but the reality is not so rosy. Instead of a reduction in overall weapons, the talks signal a shift from nuclear to conventional weapons that could be much more dangerous in the long run as conventional rearmament could increase the number of bloody conflicts. …More
Colette Mazzucelli and Sebnem Udum: UN Security Council members and Germany must turn to Turkey to successfully negotiate with Iran. The possible common ground between the two countries and Turkey’s new policy direction towards dialogue must not be underestimated and could be effective against the Iranian nuclear threat. …More
Adam Chapnick: As the international community struggles to respond effectively to the missile tests by the North Korean government, critics have blamed the United Nations Security Council for failing to deter aggression and preserve world peace. That blame is misplaced. In this case, responsibility for controlling North Korea falls squarely on China. …More
Opponents of missile defense argue unpersuasively that “there is no near-term, long-range Iranian missile threat and the proposed US system could not defeat such a threat anyway.” ++ Yet Iran continues to buy crucial …More
While Russia and the US agree on nonproliferation, global proliferation rises. ++ China and Israel modernize their arsenal; developments in North Korea and Iran endanger world stability. ++ Iran’s nuclear ambitions risk a domino effect …More
Only a few years ago, calls for a world without nuclear
weapons were considered mere academic wishful thinking. But today US security
policy experts are themselves advocating full nuclear disarmament, amongst them
Henry …More
President Obama’s visit to Moscow is supposed to foster “a more substantive relationship with Russia” - particularly on Iran’s atomic ambitions, Afghanistan and a replacement arms treaty - but Russia hardly looks “inclined to …More
North Korea’s latest missile attacks and their withdrawal from the armistice with the US could escalate to become a new chapter of the Korean war. ++ “The combination of aggressive behavior and succession questions is a dangerous …More
Despite overtures from the Obama Administration, Pyongyang
refuses to return to the nuclear non-proliferation negotiating table. ++ The US’diplomatic process is on the verge of legitimizing North Korea’s weapons program which …More
There are no realistic means to punish North Korea’s second nuclear test. ++ The test could see other powers in the region take up arms because they believe nothing can be done to persuade Pyongyang to denuclearize. ++ After the first test …More
If the US and Europe cannot peacefully convince Iran to stop developing nuclear weapons, Israel may consider using force - a move that could trigger a war worse than that in Iraq and make or break both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s …More
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have softened his stance on Israel after saying his country would recognize the State of Israel - if Palestine signed a two-state peace deal. ++ The Obama Administration has extended an …More
North Korea’s closest ally, China, will have to lead any constructive diplomatic response to Kim Jong-Il’s decision to abandon long-running nuclear non-proliferation talks following international condemnation of Pyongyang’s …More
In response to the North Korean rocket launch, President Obama committed to reducing the US supply of nuclear weapons. ++ This is not an effective strategy and gives other states an incentive to increase their nuclear capacity. ++ The only …More
President Ahmadinejad saying that Iran “welcomes a hand extended to it should it really and truly be based on honesty, justice and respect” is a significant response to recent US overtures. ++ Iran has announced that its nuclear …More
Threatening North Korea with military action will not work. ++ North Korea knows that it can ask for much in return for the abandonment of its nuclear program, such as food and economic assistance. ++ A treaty would be attractive “if it were …More
Fabian Martin Lieschke: US leadership can respond to the more imminent challenge of Iranian nuclear ambitions and extend NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Ukraine and Georgia. Here is a recommendation to President Obama.
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Obama stated that he would restart talks on arms controls. ++ The upcoming meeting between Obama and Medvedev on April 1st offers an opportunity to negotiate a successor to START I. ++ Similarly, Obama’s next moves should be to eliminate …More
It is silly to think that Mr Ahmadinejad is not aware of the enormity of reprisals to which he would be exposed should he attack Israel. ++ Thus, it is by no means excludable that the sole reason behind Iran’s insistence to continue its nuclear program …More
Changing tone does not suffice, the US ought to consider Iran as a truly equal partner to reset the relationship with Tehran: “In Iran there is no willingness to co-operate with the US without being paid back,” as happened in the past. ++ …More
Claudine Lamond: The argument that US nuclear weapons in Europe are essential to security provision is losing its persuasion force. NATO’s Strategic Concept (2009) is an opportunity to reassess the idea that the presence of US nuclear weapons in Europe enhances European security.
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Albeit at a slow pace, Iran is proceeding with its uranium enrichment program. ++ Unless the West completely reconsiders its diplomacy tactic vis à vis Iran, it is difficult to imagine a changed scenario: “years have been lost to …More
The IAEA caused fury when it revealed that it had underestimated the percentage of enriched uranium in Iran. ++ Exaggerated Western media reports coupled with alarming comments about Iran’s closeness to the bomb from “anonymous” IAEA …More
North Korea is taking a hard line with the world over its nuclear arsenal. ++ The US should respond in one of two ways: “benign neglect” or limiting North Korea’s arsenal. ++ The first option would move towards a …More
“A Q Khan, the […] self-confessed nuclear proliferator, is walking free.” ++ After announcing that his confession was made under duress, a secret agreement was made with the Pakistani government. ++ The international community will …More
Prior to his trip to the US, German FM Steinmeier has stated that he wants to start a new disarmament initiative, a cornerstone of the Obama administration. ++ Russia should also be addressed and the NATO-Russia Council revitalized, as …More
Under Pres. Bush non proliferation efforts suffered a devastating blow: he did after all exit the ABM, ignored the NPT and saw the whole issue as anachronistic. ++ The result has been nuclear testing from North Korea and further proliferation …More
It is crucial that Obama stays true to his promise of a fresh approach towards Iran, as the country wields significant influence over the wider Middle East region. ++ Persuading Iran to end its uranium enrichment program through dialog …More
Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine and South Africa all voluntarily gave up nuclear stockpiles. ++ Pakistan should do the same. ++ The US should offer the Pakistani government the $100bn it has asked for over a 10 year period, along …More
Obama has given early signals that his policy towards Iran will not mark a breakaway from Bush. ++ The “carrot-and-stick” approach is likely to create international consensus for military action should Iran refuse to back down. …More
Marek Swierczynski: Russia’s decision to deploy mid-range ballistic missiles in the Kaliningrad zone puts an end to the era of eradication of ballistic missiles from Central and Eastern Europe. The Kaliningrad zone, already the most militarized area in Europe, will become a hot spot in a new regional arms race. …More
Oliver Schmidt: In assessing whether Iran intends to build nuclear weapons, it can be concluded that whilst no evidence or ‘smoking gun’ for an Iranian nuclear program can be found, the available clues and arguments strongly suggest that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons option. …More
Yesterday, German entrepreneurs met to discuss how to intensify business with Iran. ++ Bank Melli’s connection to Tehran’s nuclear program has given the EU reason to freeze assets of Iran’s largest bank, but Germany refuses to go …More
Strobe Talbott: President-elect Obama faces a host of short term crises. Long-term issues, though, such as climate change and nuclear proliferation must be at the top of his agenda. To tackle these challenges he has to recognize these priorities and act quickly together with allies—above all Europe. …More
Daniel Möckli: The crisis surrounding Iran’s nuclear program is likely to intensify in the coming months. The dual strategy of diplomacy and sanctions has achieved little so far. Iran refuses to suspend its uranium enrichment activities and may become a nuclear threshold country within the foreseeable future. …More
Obama’s foreign policy challenges are just that, challenges. ++ Complicating matters, there are many; but none have the same potential upside as the challenge of fulfilling his election pledge to “make the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons worldwide a …More
America could prevent proliferation ambitions around the world by upgrading its own nuclear weapons arsenal. ++ Congressional funding would allow for building safer and more reliable arms. ++ The proposed “Reliable Replacement Warhead …More
The financial crisis has dominated the US election campaign, marginalizing foreign policy. ++ But it is foreign relations, and especially ties with Iran, that will be at the top of the next president’s agenda. ++ This is not only about …More
W. Hertel & F. Schöning: The EU is about to adopt a new framework for the defense industry that may hurt the chances of US companies to conduct business in Europe. This new protectionism on both sides of the pond will invariably hurt the EU and US. …More
Recent developments have greatly reduced the chances of a war against Iran. ++ Washington had planned to conduct air strikes against Iran from Georgian soil. ++ Russian intervention makes it impossible, which has “strengthened Iran’s …More
Russia’s military is almost an obsolete force due to poor training and poor quality of armaments. ++ Russia’s defense budget is just 7% of US spending. ++ It is unlikely that Russia will be able to afford the $200 billion needed …More
The possible regime crisis in N. Korea poses a threat of loose nukes, floods of refugees, and long-term economic upheaval, but is also a great chance to reunite the Peninsula under democratic rule. ++ The US-South Korean Forces may …More
A petro-emboldened Russia is becoming resurgent in the Middle East. ++ With US power waning, Russia is seeking to fill the vacuum. ++ And they’re being well-received, as “autocratic and wealth-loving Russians” have more in common with the …More
The US weapon industry is continuously growing, while more weapons are sold abroad ++ In Iraq, a host of factors, oil revenue included, has created a “loyal new customer,” namely the Maliki government. ++ Some say selling weapons to …More
India and the US are celebrating their new nuclear deal this week. ++ Critics fear an unraveling of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ Notwithstanding, India will be one of the great world powers and there is an unfortunate, yet undeniable …More
Washington and New Delhi are guilty of overselling the US-India nuclear deal. ++ The pact will not play as big of a role in bolstering US-India ties and boosting both economies as politicians want people to believe. ++ On the contrary, due to …More
Despite negotiations with the EU and sanctions from the US, the ultimate purpose of Iran’s nuclear facilities remains unclear. ++ A closer relationship is needed to monitor Iran’s nuclear activity. ++ This relationship should be business …More
McCain’s vice presidential pick, Sarah Palin, is accused of lacking experience in security and foreign policy issues. ++ She is contrasted to Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. ++ …More
Because India has not signed the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), some oppose the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and their plan to waive the ban on its nuclear commerce. ++ But India has committed itself to fully cooperate with the IAEA and, if it should …More
Herbert Maier: The unilateral approach to nonproliferation is commonly tied to President George W. Bush, but in fact it was already visible in the early 1990s. The Bush administration was more a catalyst than an initiator of this change in US strategy. …More
A strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, whether by the US or Israel, is a disastrous idea. ++ If Iran is attacked oil prices may rise to $200 a barrel which would be a hard hit for the global economy. ++ Iranian nuclear facilities are too widely …More
Now that the Bush administration has reneged on its hard line against negotiations, Iran does not take US ultimatums seriously. ++ Where progressives see flexibility, Iranian officials see weakness.++ As long as there are no sanctions, …More
His presidency coming to an end, Bush becomes obsessed with his legacy and solving the issue of nuclear Iran is foremost in his mind. ++ If he decides to support Israel in its possible attack on Iran, the economic and political …More
Fabian Martin Lieschke: Iran’s nuclear strategy – one that allows it to buy time and improve its negotiating position – seems to be working. The US policy shift has come too late - Iran has already wrapped Germany, Russia and China around its little finger. The next US President will be faced with a tough choice. …More
Philip Gordon: China does not want to jeopardize its energy deals with Tehran which are essential for its economic development. But this is a short-sighted perspective which overlooks the risks the Iranian nuclear program represents for China itself. It is time for China to think strategically about Iran. …More
US government has a tendency to “squash mosquitoes with TNT,” which shows in its treatment of Iran. ++ There’s no need to fear Iran: Ahamadinejad is only a figurehead putting on a show of might to gain respect in the Muslim world; the real power is in the …More
The permanent members of the UN security council condemn Iran, but they are just as guilty of nuclear proliferation. ++ The distinction between their supposedly “responsible” ownership of nuclear weapons and that of Iran, North Korea …More
Israel faces a dilemma: If European diplomacy fails to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment program and Americans prove reluctant to launch another war in the Middle East under Bush, should Israel strike alone? ++ An attack could dangerously …More
The Bush administration has recently shifted its approach toward Iran and is treating it with unjustified leniency: the possibility of reopening a diplomatic mission in Tehran and face-to-face meetings are gestures Iran hasn’t earned. ++ …More
Thirty years after cutting off diplomatic ties, the US is planning the establishment of a modest diplomatic representation in Tehran for which it appears to have secured Iranian approval. ++ Though this shift from previous hard-line policies …More
Despite hopeful voices that the six-party talks are on a good way to contain Korean nuclear program, Kim Jong Il gives us no reason to believe he really intends to give up his nuclear weapons. ++ Korean concessions are merely …More
The situation in the Middle East is past the point when sanctions and diplomatic talks can still make a difference. ++ The Islamic Republic is not going to yield, it is simply playing for time while trying to produce deliverable nuclear …More
The West is more concerned about who proliferates than whether someone degradates the Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ A manageable relationship with Iran requires understanding its world view and equally and respectfully acknowledging its …More
Even though India hasn’t signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and has not permitted inspections of its nuclear plants, Bush’s administration is hastening to close a US-Indian “civilian nuclear deal.” ++ …More
“If you want to make peace, you don’t talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.” ++ The US must heed the lessons learned from North Korea in dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. ++ Had Bush agreed to a dialogue …More
The US-India nuclear pact, declared “almost certainly dead” last month, will probably be signed by the Indian government after all. ++ The onus of getting it implemented is therefore back on the US. ++ Congress must stop pressuring India …More
Globalization means that international affairs no longer occur in a bipolar, unipolar, or even multipolar world, but rather “under conditions of nonpolarity.” ++ In this nonpolar world, coordination between actors is increasingly difficult, …More
July 1 marked the 40th anniversary of the NPT which provided an opportunity to reexamine its current and future role. ++ Nuclear nonproliferation movement is at a crossroads. ++ It is crucial that the next US president calls for deep …More
Fabian Martin Lieschke: NATO’s nuclear posture is dated and needs to be reconsidered during next year’s review. If NATO withdraws sub-strategic nuclear weapons from Europe it can pursue a leverage strategy to persuade Russia to also eliminate its tactical nuclear weapons. …More
“A US willingness to talk to Iran on the full range of issues dividing the two countries offers the best hope of rescuing a failed policy.” ++ If the US does not negotiate with Iran as proposed by Obama, they will be lacking options besides attacking Iran. ++ …More
Iran and North Korea are trying to develop nuclear capabilities and to many other countries, pursueing a military nuclear program has become an attractive option. ++ The US should stop denying any relationship between those …More
Working towards a nuclear free world is a necessity now that the cold war is over. ++ Both presidential candidates have announced they would commit the US to this goal. ++ The next president should lead the freeze on the production of …More
Britain’s foreign secretary argues that if the new “dual-track approach” regarding Iran’s nuclear aspirations fails, it is the Iranian’s own fault. ++ Convinced that the region and the world need a cooperative, …More
Ryan R. Miller: The belief Russia will help the West ease tensions with Iran is wishful thinking. A compliant Iran would be Gazprom’s biggest competitor. Washington should offer the Mullahs EU energy markets in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue and thus reduce European dependence on Russian energy. …More
The USA is not performing the transition to conventional weapons, which was meant to lessen the country’s dependence on nuclear weapons for defense. ++ US politicians and media are using the claim that Russia is boosting its …More
Fabian Martin Lieschke: President Bush’s effort to unite the EU-3 behind an American proposal for harsher measures on Iran may be undermined by German domestic politics. …More
Bush is moving toward helping the Saudis develop a nuclear program under the guise of energy security. ++ Considering that Saudi Arabia bathes in oil and basks in sunlight, something is missing. ++ Adding a counterweight to …More
Attacking Iran would be disastrous, many civilians would die, the nuclear program would subsist, and Israel’s involvement would create a serious backlash in the region. ++ Iran’s threats toward Israel give reason for concern but sanctions …More
Bush and Olmert’s allusions to war with Iran are the result of their foreign and domestic policy predicaments. ++ Both leaders need to create a diversion to save themselves politically, and “if either - or both - should order a military …More
Europe is playing a dangerous game with Iran. ++ Supporting US-endorsed sanctions while simultaneously maintaining business ties with Iran has resulted in a “schizophrenic policy.” ++ While the US sees a nuclear Iran as absolutely …More
Cooperation between Russia and the US on issues of nonproliferation is vital for America’s national security. ++ The agreement now before the US Congress would help the US and Russia create an international fuel bank that could …More
Daryl Kimball: The next US president must take action towards nuclear disarmament in three distinct areas. He or she must pursue reductions in US and Russian nuclear arsenals, work towards ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and reassess and reduce the role of nuclear weapons. …More
Iran cannot be prevented from acquiring nuclear power capabilities. ++ The US should therefore favor negotiation with the regime over the current threats and sanctions driven policy which merely provides for hostile relations. ++ Since “a …More
Failed US foreign policy pushed Iran into a hegemonic role it never could have attained under its own power and in such a short time. ++ Iran’s nuclear program threatens to tilt the regional strategic balance enduringly. ++ It is very …More
Recently President Bush signed an agreement to cooperate with Saudi Arabia on developing civilian nuclear energy. ++ In the case of Saudi Arabia, the agreement seems unnecessary. ++ There are alarming signs that this sudden …More
Thomas Speckmann: By highlighting the following dilemma “the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran”, Sarkozy signalled the return to a strategy of nuclear deterrence. Since the West’s most dreaded scenario is the nuclearization of the Middle East, calls to prevent Iran from acquiring the atomic bomb are becoming ever more frequent. …More
While Iran’s nuclear program frustrates the West and demonstrates “the limits of American power,” feelings of satisfaction and success unite Iranians. ++ Western incentives for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment - such as commercial …More
The US is making a bold, perhaps doltish, move by refusing to discuss a treaty aimed at preventing weapons in outer space. ++ China and Russia have warned that a countermove would be unavoidable to ensure their own security. ++ Many are …More
India’s ascension as a nuclear weapon state ten years ago was a mistake. ++ Fallacious confidence in the doctrine of deterrence has had the opposite effect, encouraging reckless behavior in Kashmir and strengthening Pakistan’s military …More
The National Nuclear Security Administration announced the US had reduced its nuclear warheads stockpile. ++ Yet the US continues to upgrade its nuclear arsenal which is the world’s largest. ++ Since the US has not ratified the …More
The US should continue its current path in North Korean nuclear negotiations, rather than exiting or stalling talks. ++ It should prioritize verification of North Korea’s plutonium production records, and push towards dismantlement of the …More
Amid escalating rhetoric about Iranian military involvement in Iraq, a new package of incentives by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany is unlikely to persuade Iran to suspend nuclear enrichment. ++ …More
Dr. Matthew Levitt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and founding director of their Terrorism Research Program (now renamed as above), established …More
Plans to build a US-proposed missile-defense shield based in Czech Republic and Poland has been met with feisty opposition. ++ NATO Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Sheffer insists that missile defense is crucial for North Atlantic …More
Having unwisely abandoned the 1994 Clinton deal that kept North Korea from producing plutonium, the Bush administration’s shift from past confrontational rhetoric is promising. ++ A first step is the assessment of plutonium …More
Concerning the Iranian enrichment program, international attention shouldn’t exclusively be on the receiving country. ++ Indian and European companies deliver nuclear supplies to Iran. ++ Tightening up control over European nuclear …More
Marek Swierczynski: Brazil and Russia want to build fighter jets and rockets under the new agreement signed last week. The potential “superpower of the South” may be on its way out of the western camp and can speed up the creation of the world’s new order. Bad news. …More
Bush’s
chief North Korea negotiator recently reached a deal with Pyongyang based on trust and not
verification ++ This hasty compromise before the end of the presidential term, could set a precedent for other nations determined to develop a nuclear program ++ Seoul and Tokyo are left bewildered by this sudden new policy of “appeasement.” ++ Public awareness will prove pivotal.
Ryan R. Miller: When major powers meet in Shanghai on April 16th to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, Washington should work with European capitals and leave the door open to greater EU-Iranian energy trade as a potential reward for Iranian good behavior. For post-communist Central Europe, disproportionately exposed to Russia’s energy monopoly, such a strategy could kill two birds with one stone. …More
Israel’s legitimate nuclear program is not a valuable excuse for Russia to jeopardize international security by supplying a reactor to Iran and by agreeing on nuclear cooperation with
Egypt. ++ The international community should …More
As nuclear weapons’ materials increase on black market, US needs to modernize forensics tools in preparation for a potential attack. ++ International collaboration and a shared
database are essential. ++ A group of independent experts …More
The protracted Six Party Talks dating back from 2003 enabled Kim Jong-il to gain time and repeatedly violate commitments. ++ If the instrumental support of Russia and China is secured, Bush should dedicate the next 10 months to …More
During Merkel’s visit, Israel needs to clarify that Germany must support tougher sanctions, break diplomatic ties, and end governmental trade subsidies with Iran. ++ Brown and Sarkozy are already supportive of more restrictive sanctions, but …More
Matt Dupuis: The idea of bringing the production and storage of nuclear fuel under international control is gaining support once again. The US should take the lead in creating a global fuel bank which would make it possible to test countries’ intentions while limiting their access to nuclear technology. …More
The goal of global nuclear disarmament must not be abandoned. ++ Recent positive developments at the Oslo conference suggest that all nations should continue to work together toward this goal. ++ The disarmament appeal needs to be more universal. ++ Hopefully, the calls for more diplomatic-scientific cooperation, firm commitment from leaders, and expanded education will be remembered.
The US’s current “insistence on zero enrichment of uranium” in Iran is unreasonable. ++ The US needs to encourage Iran to abandon its national enrichment activities in favor of a multilateral program based in Iran. ++ While there would be many risks, such a …More
Tobias Bock: This essay argues that there continues to be a function for nuclear weapons after the cold war: A number of states still strive to obtain nuclear weapons because they are convinced that they facilitate deterrence against perceived threats. …More
In the wake of the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, the EU should continue with their diplomatic approach, despite US calls for more unilateral sanctions, says Volker Perthes of the SWP. Such an approach should be based on a broad international …More
Drawing on the US Personnel Reliability Program, officials now check applicants and personnel for characteristics that might make them more likely to betray their nation’s secrets. Religious fervor is among the ones most …More
The results of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program reveal nothing distinctly different from previous findings. Nevertheless, their ensuing debate could prove critical to …More
Jeffrey Lewis of the New America Foundation takes a look behind the Bush administration’s boasting of having cut the size of the nation’s nuclear stockpile, while attempting to modernize the US …More
Andreas Beckmann: The general public does not understand the advantages of a US ground-based missile defense system in Europe. Western politicians should be wary of making confusing public statements that could facilitate Russian and Iranian efforts to divide the Alliance. …More
As Egypt declares its intentions to pursue nuclear energy, it joins other thirteen states in the Middle East with the same aim. Iran’s nuclear plans seem to be responsible for this troubling trend, writes Dan Murphy from the Christian Science …More
Mark Brzezinski: The US has missed opportunities to make sensible progress in India and Iran. In both cases, the United States should be promoting constructive engagement rather than undercutting long-held nonproliferation doctrine. …More
Despite tough rhetoric from Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany continues to play a role in Iran’s nuclear program, writes Benjamin Weinthal in Haaretz. Germany’s official public stance looks shaky in the face of the $5.7 …More
“Given the nature of Iran’s rulers, the declarations of the Iranian President, and the trouble the regime is causing throughout the region…our country and the entire international community cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills …More
Robert M. Kimmitt:, U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, applauded Germany’s efforts at forging transatlantic economic bonds during a media breakfast hosted by the Atlantic Initiative in conjunction with the DGAP and Bohnen Kallmorgen & Partner. Kimmitt’s stop in Berlin was part of an extended trip through European capitals aimed at promoting common transatlantic policies towards financial and economic issues. …More
Wall Street Journal columnist Bret Stephens breaks down the intrigue surrounding Israel’s military operations over Syria on September 6. “In a country of open secrets,” Israel’s customary …More
The cloud of secrecy surrounding India’s long-standing secret nuclear submarine program is finally clearing up, reports Guardian columnist Maseeh Rahman from Delhi. India has been racing to create alternative …More
British scholar and arms expert Plesch, Director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy of SOAS at the University of London, and Butcher, adviser to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the …More
The prospect of a bilateral summit between North and South Korea is laudable, but Bruce Klinger from the Heritage Foundation is suspicious of the motives and the timing of South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun. With national presidential …More
Is nuclear power the cheap energy and climate change holy grail? In their latest Oxford Research Group Briefing Paper, Frank Barnaby and James Kemp say no. Apart from the security problems a nuclear renaissance would bring, the …More
Kenneth Ballen: Almost 70% of Iranians favor normal relations with the United States. With all options against Iran still on the table, the West should pay more attention to a population whose majority supports democracy. …More
Only a broad coalition which includes the United States, European Union, Russia, China and India can successfully replace the West’s failed attempts to negotiate with Iran. Karim Sadjadpour, an Associate at the Carnegie …More
Violence and unrest have increased among Iran’s ethnic minorities, which make up half of the country’s 70 million inhabitants. As Western countries show growing interest in these developments, author John R. Bradley warns …More
Yossi Mekelberg, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, analyzes Israeli policy options towards Iran and potential consequences.
Though Israel would prefer that issues with Tehran be resolved diplomatically …More
The US-India nuclear deal might be at risk, argues Sengupta in an article for the World Security Network. The countries are particularly divided over two issues:
- Granting India permission to carry out …More
Inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency conducted surprise inspections in Tehran on May 13, finding 1,300 centrifuges enriching uranium and running smoothly. Together with recent aggressions toward Western nations such as …More
Maximilian Terhalle: I recommend that the United States offer Iran a fair deal in order to secure American interests in the Gulf region. The US needs to consider Iran’s political ambitions if it hopes to make headway with Tehran, and the international community should get involved in negotiating a mutually beneficial agreement. …More
Eckart von Klaeden: Europe will soon be vulnerable to medium-range ballistic missiles. The time to act is now. Europe, Germany and NATO must agree on an anti-missile shield to protect against threats from Iran and others. …More
Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger: I find that Putin should be no match for NATO cohesion on missile defense. And I urge the West not to let itself be pulled apart by a man who celebrates authoritarianism and perhaps a return to Soviet empire. …More
Jan-Friedrich Kallmorgen and Andreas Beckmann: Germany should support the proposed US missile defense plan and broaden the plan through NATO. Though this issue is rarely understood in Germany, it is evident that the world faces a massive security problem as a result of Iran’s developing nuclear program. …More
The US intention to extend parts of its missile defense system to Poland and the Czech Republic has ruffled feathers throughout Europe. The issue has been particularly divisive in Germany, …More
Eckart von Klaeden: Europe and Germany need missile defense against the threat from Iran. Europe has long neglected the new strategic threats arising from missile proliferation.
This is the first of a two-part series from the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board Member. …More
The creation of a legitimate US missile defense system requires a NATO framework, bipartisan support within the US, and Russian participation, argues Ronald Asmus of the German Marshall Fund. The Atlantic …More
The United Nations approach to halting the Iranian nuclear program is a deepening hole that the Security Council and Germany should “stop digging,” says Christoph Bertram, the former director of the German Institute for …More
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