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December 2, 2009 |  4 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Topic And 30,000 it is

Thomas Rausch: President Obama’s West Point speech heralds the next transatlantic rift. The American president is in a tight spot: he needs his transatlantic allies to support this new strategic endeavor. All the while, the German government must decide if it will go along with the plan or develop its own way forward to do right by Afghanistan.

West Point, NY - June 1, 2002: Then US President George W. Bush gave one of the most consequential speeches of his presidency. Following up on his State of the Union Address several months earlier, Bush outlined the US Grand Strategy for combating terrorism. The speech culminated in what came to be known as the Bush Doctrine: The U.S. would reserve the right of using military force preemptively. Thus, the address became a harbinger of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the most serious transatlantic rift in recent history.

West Point, NY - December 1, 2009: Incumbent US President Barack Obama gave the most important speech on foreign policy of his presidency so far. (Watch the video at the bottom of this article.) Following up on his March speech on overhauling US efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Mr. Obama outlined his strategy for dealing with the AfPak conundrum. After weeks of intra-administrative deliberations with the GOP already mocking his dithering and indecisiveness, he announced a comprehensive counter-insurgency strategy backed up by a troop increase of 30,000. Thus, he has made his opening bid for negotiations between the US and its allies about the future conduct of the Hindu Kush mission and set the stage for another conflict within the alliance.

Why is that? Well, your chief military advisor on the ground, General Stanley McChrystal, has asked you for at least 40,000 additional troops. Due to growing public skepticism and severe budgetary constraints you can only afford 30,000 - with Democrats in Congress still mad at you. So what do you do? You might want to turn to your allies to make up the difference (after all, what's the point of having allies?). And word has it that the Obama administration will do just that. Europe's response has been lukewarm at best: Poland could commit up to 1,000 troops; the U.K. will send another 500; Germany's new Minister of Defense Karl Theodor zu Guttenberg has announced that, depending on Obama's decision, Germany might consider considering the scope of its mandate - whatever that means; French President Nicholas Sarkozy has balked at any request for additional troop so far.

With several European allies all but certainly unable to live up to the expectations of the Obama administration, a transatlantic rift about the solidarity within the alliance and the purpose of the mission is not an unlikely scenario. On the one side, we find the US, the UK, Canada, Denmark, or the Netherlands, in short: the countries already fed up with the graduated solidarity that NATO displays in Afghanistan. On the other side, we find those who are widely perceived to contribute below their economic and political weight - essentially pitting the US against France and Germany. Déjà vu? The Obama administration may be more inclined to deescalate such a conflict than the Bush administration was, but given that its stakes in the issue are very high it is extremely unlikely that it will settle for polite European nays to its request. Putting all his eggs (troops) in one basket (Afghanistan), the president has tied the foreign policy record of his first term and some of his chances to win re-election in 2012 to the success of his Afghanistan strategy.

There are only two conceivable options left to the new German government to avoid the rift. Either you go along with the US and commit to a substantial troop increase (we're not talking tens or hundreds here!), or you quickly put forward a sensible strategy yourself. The former involves overcoming substantial domestic opposition and straining the Bundeswehr's capacities. The latter involves finally making up your mind about your actual goals in Afghanistan, relating it to your available means, teaming up with some like-minded states (necessarily a coalition beyond the usual suspects of anti-Americanism), coming up with a comprehensive plan, rallying broad domestic support, and then trying to sell it in good faith to the U.S. In short: do right on Afghanistan what the Schröder government did wrong on Iraq - and what the Grand Coalition failed to do on Afghanistan. If Mr. zu Guttenberg, who will soon be tied up in parliamentary hearings on the causa Klein, deems both options too costly or unfeasible, he will have to accept the inevitable, i.e. he will have to prepare some good answers to the upcoming questions about the purpose of the transatlantic alliance. Herr Minister, whatever road you choose: you're in for a rough ride. Good Luck.

Thomas Rausch is Program Officer for Transatlantic Relations at Haus Rissen Hamburg. His views expressed in this essay do not necessarily reflect the views of Haus Rissen Hamburg.

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Member deleted

December 2, 2009

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EU's positive response to President Obama's speech :

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/cf...
 
Marek  Swierczynski

December 2, 2009

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Obama's request for additional 10.000 troops from NATO allies will put any defence minister of a NATO-member country in trouble. Not only because the public is generally against any increase of the Afghan effort, but because the addition that Obama's got in mind is probably beyond reach, as it would mean doubling or trippling the burden of each ISAF participants. And there is little proof that this strategy will eventually work. Afghanistan is not Iraq - anyone knows that by just looking on the map. Knowledge of the local situation - and that of Pakistan and border areas - only makes the picture more complicated. You can not just "surge" Afghanistan with troops, surely not with the numbers mentioned above. On the American side there's already a feeling that NATO solidarity doesn't work in Afghanistan as well as it should. NATO troops are by and large stationed in the relatively easiest areas, leaving the US with the hard fighting and most of collateral damage. Putting extra 10.000 troops there is probably a vain effort. Putting them into the troublespots will probably leave half of them injured or dead - and that's a recipe for a public outrage in Germany, France or Britain. In case of Poland, 600 extra troops is what the country can afford at the maximum, but still, they'll not have enough airlift, medevac, transport and logistics. From this point, any increase in numbers is putting the servicemen in extreme danger.
 
Ann H. Sontz

December 2, 2009

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Thomas Rausch rightly underscores Franco-German conflicts about hikes in troops levels. This point, in turn, leads to a consideration of a further problem in transatlantic ties: namely, each new US policy may engender risks as far as European and NATO unity on Afghanistan is concerned.

Many analysts have concluded that "winning" in that troubled nation should not be looked on in traditionalist terms. Tribal political organizations are shifting competitive, and elusive.
Service delivery, including cash infusions, tends to disappear in a battle for status among tribes and tribal leaders. The fissive nature of the social organizations in which the majority of Afghans live prevents representative organizations from emerging at the national level. This is an historic lesson learned by both the British and the Russians. Just how to declare victory, and with whom, will undoubetdly remain a lingering question for those policies that seek success and closure through troop level hikes without clarifying Afghan's essential political challenges.
Tags: | Afghanistan | politics | tribes |
 
Catherine Stella  SCHMIDT

December 8, 2009

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The United States and Europe in Afghanistan:
Why should we stay


Last week was an affirmative week for the US led-Operation in Afghanistan.
Just as President Obama disclosed his decision, in response to General McChrystal's strategic request, to increase the number of US Military personnel with the extra 30000 soldiers, on the other side of Atlantic, far from reluctancy and rather readily, Europe extended its hand to its American partner by agreeing to augment the number of its troops for implementing the Humanitarian missions in the various parts of Afghanistan.

Evidently in Afghanistan there is a prodigious need of a deeper unity between the US and Europe; an extended proficiency and strength among the Commanding officers and our Soldiers. Additionally, a need for objectivity and a logical prospective in the civil societies and the people of the region in order to be able to understand that contrary to what the media, with the technique of sensationalism for their sale uplift, are trying to impose on public perception, the political prognosis in Afghanistan is far from bleak.

In the same week, Prime Minister Brown, in unity with the United States, highlighted the extra 500 soldiers bringing the number of Britannique to the total of 10000, maintaining the largest troop in Afghanistan second only to the US. Rome is marching in preparation to maximize its troops, which it declared thereafter.
While le Chef de la Diplomatie Francaise Bernard Kouchner ruled out the status quo by acknowledging the possibility for the addition of deployment, Deutschland has already reshuffled its cabinet and placed the public pulse in the hands of its new Defense Minister Karl Theodor zu Guttenberg.
In the next few days his role will be particularly crucial as he steps in to convince the German parliament and the public. He has yet to combine his political rhetoric with the military might in order to justify, not only the German presence in Afghanistan, but also making a case for multiplying the number of its soldiers on the ground.

With all these imperative layout plans, at long last, NATO could heave a sigh of relief.

It has passed almost eight years since the day that the United States launched an operation to remove the tyrannical system in Afghanistan and liberate the people of that land, who had been suffering for quite a long period, first in civil conflicts and later under the atrocities of Taliban rulers.
Yet it is diaphanously apparent that despite the fact that the security remains to be a bit in turmoil, despite the fact that there is still social derangement, the general structure of the country, in a very positive way, has changed since its liberation. Though slowly Afghanistan is advancing towards Democratization. The local people are already benefiting from the many Humanitarian projects that the US and the NATO forces have implemented thus far.
In the historical scope, it is evident that in any parts of the world where there has been a step towards a better society, there had been a price which was paid for it. Neither the United States nor la France-- and truly not any other countries in the world has ever actualized Freedom and achieved Democracy without the bravery, sacrifice and perseverance of their people.

It would be unthinkable-- rather facile and implausible to envision that the essential changes that we are implementing in Afghanistan, in order to help them to establish a democratic government will be without casualties on both the US-NATO forces and the local people sides. It will be naïve to think that war against tyranny will be casualty-free with the rapid obtained results. And this is the fact that Politicians have to make it clear to the general public while expecting them to comprehend the mission in Afghanistan and adhere to it.
For we are not there to court them politically or exercise the military excursions but we are there, in that land-- Afghanistan, for a noble cause, the Humanitarian one.
Because we are: Liberating Afghanistan;
Assisting the local people to get their country back on the right path; Helping them to be Free from traces of darkness by providing them every means for the general and the higher education;
And leading them to have a Democratic country under the rule of law.

Putting aside the Humanitarian aspects of this operation, strategically, we can be assured that the US-EU operational framework in the Afghanistan region will work towards, not only the completion of Democratization in Afghanistan, but also it will pay off for the security of United States, Europe and the entire region. We will accomplish our mission in Afghanistan as we are helping it, instead of being the camps for extremist, to become a stabilized and a secure country that could contribute to the world.
The constructive changes in Afghanistan might not be noticeable at this very time, yet in due course the World will see the results of the Knightly measures that the United States and Europe did take for liberating that region from the theocratic oppression and the brutality of the tyrannical system.

Thus the US and Europe should maintain their positions in Afghanistan until the insurgency is defeated; the corruption is annihilated and the rightful Democratic government is in place. And equally important, until the people of the region are able to take responsibility of their own country.

With these principles in the framework of our policies, hence we have to accredit this Humanitarian operation and all our soldiers who are engaged in it.

 

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