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February 27, 2012 |  24 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

By the Numbers: How Quantifying State Action Can Lead to a Better NATO

Andrew Barr: Quantifying state involvement in NATO through the establishment of a “points system” is a necessary step towards quelling the discord from ambiguities in measuring participation. In addition, military, civilian and academic exchanges will augment a sense of community within NATO.

One of the principle barriers to a greater sense of community among NATO member and partner nations has been the perceived disparity of commitment among those involved. Simply put, each member or partner to the organization faces a unique set of constraints that allow for vastly different degrees of participation in NATO operations. From the perspective of a state with a limited operational capacity, it may seem as though states with greater latitude may be disproportionally influential. Conversely, states with broader capabilities may view those limited states as merely sycophantic, enjoying NATO's perks without contributing to its process.

This perceived disproportionality manifests itself in a variety of ways, from military aid and economic support, to personnel and a myriad of other factors-the measure of a state's participation in NATO reflects the degree to which it is invested in the organization. To achieve high levels of involvement then, member and partner countries must be motivated to contribute as much as possible within the scope of their specific capacity.

NATO was historically much stronger when the threat of communism and the Cold War loomed over the world, and members had a common adversary in the form of the Soviet Union. Today, the enemy is fragmented and seldom wears a uniform. The nature of global conflict and global security has shifted, and NATO must adapt, or risk becoming irrelevant. The organization's emphasis must turn to member commonality, fostering a sense of esprit de corps, a means of perpetual team building. Too often, members highlight their own agendas without emphasizing shared goals and other areas of commonality, the pursuit of which can bring together the organization and strengthen the bonds of community and collective security that NATO embodies.

One specific area that can lead to increased cooperation and a greater sense of ownership and identification among member nations is joint training programs and military exchange programs. As a US Navy Reservist, I've learned first-hand the importance of cross-cultural exposure and familiarity. Participation in NATO training exercises and officer-exchange initiatives can have a tremendous impact on the operational readiness of a given force, which in turn augments the capabilities of the organization as a whole.

A structure must be established in which participation at all levels is quantified-a point system devised for each and every level of contribution from NATO member and partner states. Enforcing no-fly zones, participating in training exercises, implementing embargoes and other sanctions, distributing aid, and basing and manufacturing missile defense systems would all be assigned point values, along with NATO's countless other operations.

Such points could then be weighed against a country's "capacity" to contribute, determined through state-specific dynamics like GDP, education, income and health statistics, among others. This capacity (most similar to the Human Development Index, or HDI) would serve as a means by which participation in NATO could be definitively measured. Critics of the organization often argue that the subjectivity and vagueness that surrounds measurements of member states' participation creates divisions and internal hierarchies within the organization. Quantifying state involvement in this manner addresses that critique, putting countries with limited operational capacities on the same playing field as those with broader abilities through capability assessments and making point determinations proportional to those capabilities. This proportionality is a step towards fostering much-needed sentiments of ownership and identification among members.

A database displaying the points could also be created and administered by a multilateral action committee, allowing member nations and the public to view the point totals. Such transparency would inspire each member nations' public to rally around the actions of their government and encourage increased participation in NATO if a state's involvement is lacking. Such systems already exist in industry, where private corporations and institutions join together in groups - with the Fair Labor Association and the Electronic Industry Citizenship Coalition being two examples - wherein members subscribe to audits to make public their adherence to governmental and societal standards and principles.

In this way, the degree of each member's NATO participation would be quantifiable in such a way as to heighten public awareness and encourage all to contribute on the basis of their respective strengths, thereby increasing the synergy and unity of the organization and ensuring its continued worldwide impact.

An integral part of the system is the promotion of exchange programs of all kinds and at all levels. Junior officer programs, civilian academic exchanges and youth scholarship opportunities can all be encouraged and tracked through the points structure. Transnational interactions, military and non-military, will play a pivotal role in shifting the "they" into "we". Indeed, effectively combatting an enemy means knowing the strengths and weaknesses of one's allies as well, and through quantifiable participation in broad-spectrum exchanges, a sense of community and shared defense goals through NATO can be reinforced and developed.

Andrew Barr is an undergraduate at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in the Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security Program. He is also a Midshipman in the United States Naval Reserve Officer Training Corps. He has written for the American Spectator, The Heartland Institute, the American Security Council Foundation and several other university publications.

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Tags: | Your Ideas Your NATO | security | NATO |
 
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Daryl  Morini

February 27, 2012

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Dear Andrew,

You have written a great piece, bringing a very interesting idea to the table. I think that your “points system” is a potentially innovative approach to Transatlantic burden-sharing, and perhaps also a way of bridging the “they-we” gap in perceptions across and within NATO member-states.

Although I see its intuitive appeal, the main concern which NATO policy-makers may have with this idea – which may simply need further refining – is that this proposal in essence seeks to codify, and publicise, static inequalities in the relative distribution of military power within the Alliance. Of course, due to NATO’s consensual decision-making approach, all Allies are formally equal; but it is no secret that some Allies are more equal than others.

To implement this idea would presumably require the agreement of the North Atlantic Council (NAC). However, we can foresee some disagreement on the part of smaller NATO states – Iceland for example – which we can safely predict would think twice about quantifying its capabilities into an official NATO database. (Iceland has no standing military). To an extent, the Defence Policy and Planning Division at NATO Headquarters already implements the policy you suggest, by mapping the individual capabilities of Allies, and working to synchronise NATO militaries into highly inter-operable and complementary fighting forces, including through ongoing NATO officer-training courses. Therefore, we can only expect all Allied nations to agree to this points system on the condition of no strings (responsibilities) being attached to nations’ scores.

Hence, one major reason for nations’ resistance, I would surmise, is firstly that it would insinuate a de facto recognition of the power imbalances within the Alliance. This would undercut the consensual approach of the NAC, by suggesting that, much like the voting procedures of the Council of the European Union, NATO members’ voices formally carried unequal weights, due to members’ vastly different population bases, GPD and other indices of power and capabilities. Unless managed tactfully, this points system could unintentionally alienate smaller NATO states.

Secondly, even some larger and more capable NATO states would balk at the idea of quantifying their capabilities – especially Germany – as their higher point score would automatically imply their greater degree of responsibility in NATO operations which, in the end, remain sovereign political decisions. Let us take the case of Operation Unified Protector. In this mission, relatively less capable NATO members, such as Belgium and the Netherlands, made important contributions to the air campaign, whereas Germany, a potentially much more formidable contributor, made international headlines by desisting from participating in this particular military intervention. Objectively speaking, Germany’s larger capabilities should have warranted a greater degree of input, but this dispassionate quantitative analysis ignores the deep historical-psychological reasons which arguably contributed to German inaction during NATO’s intervention in Libya. Hence, NATO member-states, even the more capable among them, are likely to jealously guard their sovereign decision-making prerogative. Although it is an idea I would support, we must be aware that even this points systems proposal would remain hostage to national political preferences and expediencies.

With reference to the above scenario, I would have to disagree with the idea that “allowing member nations and the public to view the point totals...would inspire each member nations' public to rally around the actions of their government and encourage increased participation in NATO if a state's involvement is lacking.” I simply do not see how this dynamic could have been achieved in the case of Germany, for example – where one poll revealed that 66% of Germans were against participating in the Libyan intervention – or generally for that matter. I sincerely doubt that such a rally-around-the-flag effect can easily be achieved by NATO nations intervening in out-of-area operations far removed from the bread-and-butter issues of domestic politics, whether military capabilities are on display or not. But I would certainly agree that openly sharing national capabilities and point scores between NATO members, and with their respective publics, can only enhance Transatlantic burden-sharing, by pointing out scope for Allied defence specialisation, greater inter-operability and therefore a more integrated NATO in austere times.

I would only finish with a more philosophical set of questions to feed our policy discussion. Hans-Georg Gadamer famously wrote that statistics “are such excellent means of propaganda because they let the ‘facts’ speak for themselves and, hence, simulate an objectivity that in reality depends on the legitimacy of the questions asked.” I am simply wondering which concrete criteria you would consider to compare and measure the national capabilities of NATO members, and how you would prevent potentially serious disputes arising between the Allies over comparing military capabilities and other indices of national power directly affecting their international prestige? This might turn out to be an immensely subjective ordeal, rather than an objective technical-military process, and it would not be surprising if nations squabbled over the scores their nation were assigned in comparison to those of their Allies. How do we prevent this from becoming a source of discord in NATO, rather than a bridge to closer cooperation? And what are the legitimate criteria and questions to ask in order to arrive at undisputed scores?

Thank you kindly for your patience, and my apologies about this rather long first response, which was due to the interesting and thought-provoking nature of your own piece. Well done again!

Daryl
 
Megan Ann Reiss

February 27, 2012

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This thoughtful piece by Andrew Barr outlines a means by which NATO could create a point system to quantify the involvement of States within NATO. First of all, I want to stay outright that I love the idea of quantifying the goals of creating a ‘more equal’ NATO. Only by having a clear and concise end-goal can a goal be reached having empirical means of assessment is the best way to measure movement toward a goal. With this in mind, I believe that any final memo to NATO should include a means of measuring progress toward a goal, with clearly defined rungs on the ladder which will be reached before achieving the ultimate goal.

Additionally, I support Andrew’s goal of making a more transparent NATO, which would occur by making the point system clear to the public so they can understand how a State’s contributions are assessed.

I’m first going to briefly summarize the main points so Andrew can correct any faulty assumptions I have in the future. Depending on a State’s resources (economic, military, and otherwise), it would be expected to contribute to the amount indicated by the point system he describes. Points would be earned by such things as providing joint training programs, enforcing no-fly zones, contributing weapons, etc. The points would be made available to the public, hopefully to put pressure on governments to live up to their point allocation.

My understanding of NATO funding is that States contribute their own troops through their own national security budgets, which is considered indirect funding. Troop contribution is the most significant aspect to NATO operations, and the primary means of measuring State contribution. Any system that is based on quantifying contributions will have to primarily deal with quantifying troop contributions. Thus quantifying contributions coming out of the national budgets, unless the actual troop contribution would not be part of this point total---and as my colleague Daryl pointed out, a State such as Iceland has no standing army---and no legal means of creating a standing army. Additionally, would well-trained troops count more? Or providing specialized troops to operations which require such specialization? Thus, if a point system is to exist, it can not take troop allocations into consideration, or it will have to learn to quantify national budgets and troop allotments and either allow for some exceptions for States like Iceland or attempt to force a State such as Iceland to changes their laws and create a standing army, which doesn’t seem obviously feasible.

States do contribute to NATO in ways other than troop contributions, and the majority of Barr’s argument rests not on troop provisions but on other forms of contribution, so I will address primarily this topic of direct funding. If this is the main point of his point system, it does seem vastly more feasible than also taking in to account troops to the point system.

Outside of troop contribution by individual member States, NATO has three internal budgets which are funded by member States: a civil, a military, and a security investment program budget.* These budgets are created based on negotiations which determine how much individual States will contribute, based on their gross national income (and other factors). New burden-sharing amounts were negotiated in 2005 for the three budgets, and you can see how costs are allocated here: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_67655.htm. This burden-sharing arrangement reflects what Barr is proposing: that States contribute what they can based on the resources they have. What is not clear in the documentation is what the ‘other factors’ in the negotiations entail outside of a State’s gross national income. By clearing stating what these other factors are, then people will be able to see more clearly how they are assessed. If people within States disagree with how assessments are made, then this would be a great place to bring in additional public comment and increase the democratic legitimacy of NATO. Here would be a great place to implement Andrew’s point system.

As you can see, the United States, Germany, United Kingdom, and France contribute well over 50% of the direct budgets in 2010 and 2011. These statistics could contribute to Barr’s argument: if so much of the budget is contributed by only four countries, what impact could other countries have in the organization? But by having clear standards of contribution outside mere budgets, and having a clear understanding of how the standards were created, State leaders from small States may have more legitimacy in asserting their view, as it rests on the grounds that their State is contributing as much as can be expected in the organization.


*See Carl Ek, ‘NATO Common Funds Burdensharing: Background and Current Issues,’ Congressional Research Service, 22 April 2010.
 
Greg Randolph Lawson

February 27, 2012

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The ability of a point system to lead to specialization might be about the only hope NATO has of spreading the burden around in a way that is politically acceptable.

I have long argued here at the Atlantic Community that NATO should largely remain focused on intra-European stability. In the wake of the EU crisis, this may actually achieve a higher level of importance than one might have thought a decade ago when searching for out of theatre operations seemed the alliances entire raison d'etre. That said, we still need a way forward in thinking through how to efficiently and fairly distribute what all must acknowledge will be very finite resources. Mr. Barr sets a good standard for discussion.

 
Megan Ann Reiss

February 27, 2012

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Dear Andrew,

As I stated before, I greatly support the idea of implementing a quantitative measurement for State participation. I have two other points which could enhance your plan; the first relates to the process of common funding versus joint funding. In common funding, all States should contribute to an operation, in theory because all States benefit from the operation. In joint funding, only States that are affected by an operation are meant to apply.

How does this point system plan to deal with common versus joint funding? Do States which contribute to a joint-funding operation earn more points by contributing to NATO, even though other States which don’t contribute (and have no need to contribute, as the operation doesn’t concern them) end up accruing points due to the joint funding operation (and thus need to contribute to NATO in other spheres)? Should joint funding operations be outside of the point system to avoid these problems? This generally clarifies the comment that Daryl made previously.

I would also like to support Daryl’s assessment at the potential for this system to merely quantify the power divisions in NATO. In creating this point system, could we just be implementing a means by which small States will have to make a great effort to catch up to big States in a non-monetary way? Big States are always going to have influence based on their larger budgets and their ability to contribute troops and host exercises and development updates to missile systems. This system could potentially highlight the very fact that they have less capital (economic and otherwise) available to contribute to NATO. While, yes, having exchange programs will help bridge divides, I doubt their ability to create equality when faced with a State with a massive budget.

These are all the finer points of the system, and my suggestions may or may not create a better version of the ideas outlaid. I want to affirm again that I agree that creating ownership among States, and having clear and defined goals, is an admirable aspiration, and increasing cross-cultural exchanges can always help. I think that your system, maybe more than creating greater unified identity among NATO States and insuring equality, could enhance the democratic legitimacy of the organization.


Sincerely,

Megan
 
Stephanie Theresa Baulig

February 27, 2012

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Dear Andrew!

First of all, I really enjoyed reading your article, it is written in a very thoughtful and interesting way! (I would like to apologize at this point that I might not be able to phrase my ideas in such brilliant English as the previous answers are written, since I am not a native speaker).
Since we are both soldiers, reserve officer and active officer, I am sure we see NATO as a mainly military institution, however, the political as well as the social aspect and influence have to been taken into consideration as well. Reading your article, I found eight points I would like to ask you a few questions about.
- You mention the "vastly different degrees of participation in NATO". As a matter of fast, smaller member states do not have the manpower nor the essential financial possibilities to contribute to our mutual interests. However, calling these states "sycophantic" due to the disproportionality of perceived contribution , in my opinion, in not a fact, since every NATO member contributes the best they can do. The members share mutual interests, values and responsibilities - compared to a real family, everyone has got their tasks and natural limits and to reach the common goal - security, well-being and strength - these tasks have to be fulfilled. Even small contributions matter and since military forces work more and more specialized, I do not see any problem in the degree of participation.
- Moreover, you mention "joint training programs and military exchange programs". Yes! These are the esprit de corps-building measures! NATO consists mainly of soldiers. Nonetheless, there are countless programs carried out already, internationally, nationally and periodically. Maybe too many. I've learned from first-hand how hlaf-heartedly these maneuvers can be implemented. Once, I have had three NATO training maneuvers in two months. That was too much and did not give the soldiers taking part in it the slightest chance to get to feel the "tremendous impact" you mention.
- Referring to the point system you suggested - which I really appreciate since it sounds idealistically useful - I would like to note that it might be quite seductive for member states, especially smaller and thus mostly less contributing ones to pick out the contributions that get them points easily at the lowest costs. And wouldn't it be quite complicated to evaluate the "point price" for differents actions? What do you suggest here? Who will be starting to value? As far as it shall be the committee you mentioned: Do you really propose even more bureaucracy? More paper work? Yes, it might be more transparent, but on the other hand, it will cost a lot of time, manpower and of course, money. Where will it be settled? At what proportion will the seats be shared? This might undenieably lead to further political debates and problems. Do you have a distribution comparable to the UN in mind?
- You evaluate a country's contribution capability by its "state-specific" dynamics - which seems very reasonable and fair. But given ever-changing economic, social etc. developments, the committee would have to revaluate the points almost weekly, not to say even daily. Economic crises can weaken a country sustainably and quickly - how should its tasks be carried out?
- One point I absolutely agree with you is that the proportionality of your point system is able to "foster much-needed sentiments of ownership and identification among members" since they will feel equally and fairly treated.
- Just a few sentences later you state that the tranparency of the point system will "encourage increased participation in NATO". How do you think it will increase? Right now, we have the situation that the population in the European NATO member states thinks they are paying their taxes for a membership in a mainly Amercan-dominated institution and contribute a lot compared to their possibilities whilst Americans might consider the situation vice versa. As long as there is no identification with NATO itself, the member nations' public will unfotunately not express their absolute will to meet NATO's demands.
- Furthermore I think it is a bit difficult to compare NATO with industry. Sure, it has to work and spend its money reasonably and effectively, but the ideological aspect as well as the political and social one weights by far more than the economic. NATO published its depenses as well and the member states have the possibility to note mistakes.
- As Megan mentioned before, there is also a civil budget and many employees in NATO, especially in administrative headquarters are civilians. I agree with your idea to foster exchange programs (which already exist, for civilians, too) and the leading though to create a new esprit de corps (a "we"-feeling) is, as you call it, "pivotal". At this point, I would a stronger accentuation on military exchanges, yet. Civilians are not those who carry out NATO missions, at least not in the field (I know that there are many who are deployed as well, but still few compared to the soldiers).
- Finally, I do like your ending in which you point out that everybody has to know "the strengths and weaknesses of one's ally as well" - very true! A singly country's weakness can effect the power of impact of the whole of NATO! Still, let us not make it a competition about which country is the strongest and the most powerful one. We shall not be competing since further leaks and weaknesses are thus created.
Despite your catching headline "quantifying state action", I would not entirely support this idea. Spreading tasks into too many miniscule mini-actions can endanger the whole of the idea. I think that "specialization" and complete contribution can be more effective, reasoable and appreciated by member states.
Okay, I wrote quite a lot, I just realized... Thank you for your patience and your wonderful paper! I hope I could give you some further stimuli since I like your idea in priciple. However I think it would be quite hard to be put into effect.

Kind regards,
Stephanie
 
Unregistered User

February 27, 2012

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I think the point system you've laid out is an elegant solution to the accountability problem that is inherent to international institutions, especially when the distribution of power/capabilities within them is as varied as it is in NATO; placing the problem in plain view by means of the database makes it more difficult for freeloading to occur.

My main question is what the implications of having such information readily available will be. I think strategic ambiguity, especially for more vulnerable states, is a viable strategy and states that choose to employ it may be less forthcoming about their own capabilities, especially if the point system includes nuclear capability.

In addition, there is a gap in the level of training of different states' militaries, and while an increase in joint training exercises can help narrow it, I am not sure how a system that tracks force commitments will account for that discrepancy. Expectations must be relative of course, but differing levels of training will hamper enforced collectivity, especially if missions are built from the ground up as joint operations.
Tags: | strategic ambiguity | training |
 
Stephanie Theresa Baulig

February 27, 2012

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Dear Andrew, dear Daryl, dear Megan, dear Greg,

ich just reviewed your comments and I would like to go into some details.

Daryl, you mentioned Op. Unified Protector in which Germany refused to take part due to historical-psychological reasons, as you named it. Being German myself I can tell that there has been motivation in the armed forces to take part, since we have been training to do our job and still could not do so for there was no political "go", no allowance. In my opinion you might find similar situations over and over again where reasons as the named ones or various others may prevent military action.
As you said, many countries guard their decision-making prerogative and justifiably so. It is an important freedom of choice whether to take part in a military action and there are multiple arguments that might induce government to deny a participation, may it be social, economical, political or other reasons. As all NATO partners are supposed to be on a par with each other, this individual decision might displease some of them, but still it has to be accepted. As long as the burden-sharing process is not put in jeopardy and the political decision is vindicable, other NATO member states have to accept this decision.
The only thing that has to be kept in mind is that the decision-making process does not turn into a power game. No country should be put under pressure or even be blackmailed. Being a member of NATO does not mean to be at its mercy, every member state keeps their right of own political processes.

Megan, just like Andrew you mentioned quality and quantity again. Personally, I still think it is hard to combine these two attributes, maybe even impossible. In order to find the proper amalgam, the capabilities of every country have to be taken into consideration. "Big" countries may provide more troops whilst smaller can contribute by supplying material, knowledge or special forces. Maybe it is more effective vice versa.
Moreover, you brought forward exchange programs. In my opinion, these measure do not create equality, but in fact foster cross-cultural communication and thus establish a sound basis for further rapprochement. Exchange programs are not being executed to create equality in the first place (what kind of equality?), but to give soldiers a chance to get to know each other, to exchange information and knowledge and to train together in order to co-operate effectively on the battleground.
I agree with you and Adrew when it comes to ownership and mutual goals. Ownership gives every country their identity and sovereignty.

The raison d'être of NATO is "ever changing" (I hope this is the right word here...) - not weak or vague, but NATO constantly needs to revaluate current situations and adapt - it does not change its basic values however. As far as it concerns an efficient and fair distribution, Greg, it always depends on the point of view. But since we share mutual values and we are headed for the same goal, a solution should be found.
Maybe a point system might create more transparency and lucidity, but (as I mentioned above) it might be hard to decide on the proper "translation" of actions into points etc.

Kind regards,
Stephanie
 
Daryl  Morini

February 28, 2012

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I would simply add a few additional thoughts to this very interesting discussion, encouraged by the detailed provisions which we are now discussing.

Megan has contributed a much-needed budgetary angle to this debate, by outlining the different forms of NATO funding, and how these could dove-tail with Andrew’s points system. As Megan points out, NATO’s burden-sharing arrangements are not only the result of objective and uncontested criteria, but also of drawn-out and often tough negotiations. This goes back to the concern that I was expressing earlier, namely that the very process of quantifying NATO members’ capabilities could itself become a divisive issue.

As one small example, agreement over such a joint capability as NATO’s Alliance Ground Surveillance (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_48892.htm) appears to come with certain budgetary caveats by France and the United Kingdom on their “contributions-in-kind” to this capability. Additionally, this multilateral acquisition programme, which was agreed in February 2012, has not been immune from unilateral withdrawals and other controversies (http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Canada+withdraws+from+NATO+surveil...).

It is not clear whether the points system would have encouraged nations to contribute more in this particular episode, because defence budget cuts can be cited as objective enough criteria for not contributing in certain capability projects or missions. But perhaps displaying the budgetary ‘sacrifices’ made by certain Allies, even by strong albeit less capable members such as the Baltic states, might feasibly serve to pressure larger states (such as Canada) to contribute to such programs. However, whether such tacit “name and shame” pressure tactics would be healthy for Allied cohesion is another question altogether.

Finally, I support the other constructive points made by everyone, including Stephanie’s argument that “state-specific” dynamics fluctuate significantly over time, theoretically requiring an additional layer of NATO bureaucracy to monitor and update nations’ point scores. Ian has also made a very valid observation about small member-states’ use of strategic ambiguity, and the equally daunting problem of detailing specific nuclear capabilities – which would not only be publicised to Allied leaders and publics, but probably also (due to democratic processes) to potential challengers. I also fully support Greg’s suggestion of the points system leading to Allied specialisation and, therefore, more equitable burden-sharing.
 
Andrew  Barr

February 28, 2012

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Hello everyone!

First, let me apologize for the rather poor timing of this post (I’m still a full-time student) and for it longevity. You all had so many insightful things to say!

Thank you so much for your thoughtful input- your ideas and questions are exploring important facets of my proposal, components that can only benefit from closer analysis and discussion.

As Daryl observes, “…we can foresee some disagreement on the part of smaller NATO states – Iceland for example – which we can safely predict would think twice about quantifying its capabilities into an official NATO database. (Iceland has no standing military).” Indeed, this issue is also mentioned by several of our colleagues, who are concerned that smaller NATO states would have reservations about quantifying their limited involvement. The key here is proportionality—no matter what the operational abilities of a member state, the established point values are to be weighed against the state’s determined “capacity” (as I mentioned, “state-specific dynamics like GDP, education, income and health statistics, among others.”) So, even though Iceland has no standing military, its contributions can be calculated through a myriad of other actions like aid, logistical support, etc.

Daryl points out that no responsibilities can be attached to nations’ scores, but it might be useful to think of the points system itself as a catalyst to responsibility, a motivational tool to states currently deficit in their NATO contributions. While NATO cannot demand point benchmarks or enforce point requirements, the very existence of a public measure of involvement can accomplish a great deal. It can make the citizenry of member states aware of their involvement level, and if the benefits of NATO participation are properly communicated to a given populace, grassroots support for increased participation could soon follow. Making regional partners aware of specific involvement levels can also trigger “encouragement” on the regional level through economic organizations and defense scenarios. Essentially, if regionally-connected states observe a fellow state lagging far behind in NATO participation, it is likely that they will push for its increased involvement, as it is in their best interest that it does so. Daryl comments on the lack of perceived importance of a NATO action to a state’s constituency—this is a valid concern, but perhaps by emphasizing the inter-connectivity and interdependent nature of collective security through the point system, publics will be better equipped to recognize the importance of seemingly “far-removed” operations.

This principal remains across all types of transnational interactions: the more everyone puts in, the more everyone gets out. And Daryl brings up a crucial point: when disparities are discovered, they must be treated with a great deal of tact; the points are inherently a measure of inequality, yes, but can be employed in a manner that strives to achieve equality. This is done by focusing on the gains that can be achieved through increased NATO collaboration, rather than emphasizing the causes for deficits.
In his conclusion Daryl hits on a crucial part of my proposal: the establishment of the point values themselves. Indeed, although the proposed multilateral committee will seek to limit subjectivity in making point value determinations, no international decision-making process is entirely without subjectivity and political maneuvering. But a commitment to an objective technical-military analysis of actions and contributions would be the primary goal of the committee tasked with said creating point values; it is naïve to suggest that we can eliminate all subjectivity from the process, but we can strive to create an action group that diminishes it as much as possible.

Megan thoughtfully considers the specific question of quantifying troop allocations—indeed, making determinations on such characteristics as training and experience levels will be difficult, but with careful analysis, comparisons can be reached by considering operational experience, equipment, readiness and other factors, much like those currently employed by comparative capability analysts in the intelligence community. Megan, your discussion of direct funding is very insightful and reaches the core of my argument: weighing the amount of state involvement can add a much needed legitimacy to smaller states, those with a more limited operational capacity. The issue of joint versus common funding is also brought up, which constitutes a vital part of the point system debate. What operation does or does not “concern” a member state is a highly subjective judgment, especially as the capabilities of hostile actors become more advanced and our international security infrastructure becomes more connected as a result. Interdependency is what is gained from transforming “they” in “we”, and this symbiosis is done a disservice by thinking in terms of what does or does not concern a state in the short term. Nonetheless, Megan raises a valid argument, especially in the recent example of Libya, that a country’s “stake” in a NATO operation may be a point of contention among government leaders and in the public sphere, but as mentioned earlier, the transparency of the points system will help perpetuate an increased sense of “stake” in whatever endeavor NATO engages in.

Stephanie also raises several valuable and important points. I would respectfully disagree with her argument that “every NATO member contributes the best they can do.” Indeed, the exact metrics of “the best” a country can put forth has not been quantified, and although this rhetoric is manifest on the international stage, a more concrete means of comparison is necessary, by my thinking through the points system. It must be stressed that proportionality is key in making these comparisons. As I state in the article, states with a more limited operational capacity will have their participation weighed against this capacity in an effort to create a more equal basis for comparison. The impact of military and cultural exchanges also lies at the heart of my proposal. As you acutely observe, Stephanie, current exchange programs are often plagued by rapidly-shifting deadlines and benchmarks that make building cultural and military cohesion difficult. By giving states an incentive to engage in meaningful, productive exchanges through establishing point values on duration and other factors, the “tremendous impact” that I allude to can potentially be realized. Of course, what constitutes a meaningful, productive exchange program is up to the careful consideration of the multilateral action committee.
In response to Ian’s comment, regarding security concerns in transparency, (which I believe is an extremely important question to raise), the answer is manifold. Certainly, releasing all of a state’s potential military or economic involvement would not be in anyone’s best interest. The idea is to be general enough in the quantifications to prevent any breach of sovereignty or security, but specific enough that the governments and citizens of NATO know how much they and their allies are contributing to the Organization. It’s a fine line, certainly, and certainly the sovereign interests of member states must be held sacred, but other bodies like the UN have achieved success by working with member states themselves to ensure the right information is released in the most secure and comprehensive manner, again for an undertaking for the proposed multilateral action committee.

In closing, I want to highlight one important point: the creation and maintenance of a quantifying system is obviously not a simple or easy undertaking, if it was, I have little doubt such systems would be much more prominent in the international arena than they are today. The creation of the committee that establishes and administers the points themselves will take much care and diplomacy, ensuring that such a body would rely on technical assessment and objectivity in their judgments rather than falling into political posturing and subjectivity. Finally, I cannot stress the importance of increased exchanges (as I say in the article, “at all levels”) as a byproduct of the point system. As Stephanie correctly observes, current exercises can use reforming in their operational design, change that can increase the amount of cross-cultural contact and leaning, and thereby begin the process of changing “they” into “we.”
 
Costinel  Anuta

February 28, 2012

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Dear Andrew,

First of all I must congratulate you for your courage to bring at the table such a debated subject as quantifying state involvement in NATO through a “points system”. However, it looks that you have opened the Pandora’s Box even on atlantic-community.org.
One the other hand, I think you actually emphasized the first “question” to answer in our final memo and that is the need for a coherent mechanism of ACCOUNTABILITY within the Alliance.
This brings me to the way you see accountability and I have a few comments on that:
- the main barrier for building a “points system” would be a diverse threat perception across the Alliance. Here I would like to draw your attention on a piece written by Richard Gowan from ECFR, which emphasizes three major emergent ways of thinking within NATO – New Cold Warriors, Small War Specialists and Power Projectors – consequently leading to different views on Alliance’s objectives (http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_gowan_esharp_afghanistan);
- the biggest risk in building a “points system” would be the alteration of Alliance’s basic values and NATO transformation into a transaction-based partnership. The allied solidarity and indivisibility of security cannot and should not be quantified; otherwise they will lose their paramount symbolic significance. The creed “One for all and all for one” is based on the particular cultural ties of the Western culture and on the need to protect and promote the Western values (democracy, human rights and so on). And I would also like to draw attention on another particular aspect of the Alliance – free will. Even in the most “sacred” principle – the collective defence – we are witnessing an expression of the free will – “each of them, […], will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, […], such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force” (Article 5, Washington Treaty)
- in my view, the comparison with the industry is not quite helpful, because the objectives are different: while the industry is about making profit, NATO is about fostering, protecting and promoting values, as I said before;
- as a collateral observation, a “competitional” system without a system of incentives attached cannot “inspire each member nations' public […] and encourage increased participation in NATO”, especially in the light of the current economic crisis. Why should an allied nation improve its score: will it receive better security for greater efforts? And after all, we are getting to the same result: a transaction-based partnership!
As a way ahead, I think that there are some ongoing initiatives which could lay the foundation for an accountability mechanism, and these initiatives are focused on either on benchmarking Allied capabilities development (NATO Defence Planning Process, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49202.htm), or on monitoring Allies commitment to operations (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_52081.htm), their defence expenditures (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_71296.htm?selectedLocale=en) or even their efforts in reaching specific targets regarding their “usable” and deployable forces in support of NATO (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49137.htm?selectedLocale=en). But there is a need to bring these initiatives together in order to make the accountability effort much more coherent.

Regards,
Costinel
 
Megan Ann Reiss

February 28, 2012

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To Ian: what is your analysis on the free-rider problem as a viable strategy? As a viable strategy for small states, should larger states or an alliance organization counter this strategy through a mechanisms like a point system?

To Andrew: when I read your proposal, I kept thinking of the US and its (well known) arrears at the United Nations. Every year, publicly, the US is shamed for not paying on time (essentially, they pay the previous year's debt). The reasons for doing so are not important for my comment. What is important is that despite the US being in arrears, and having officials comment on the problem on occasion, the US rarely feels compelled to respond or pay off the arrears. Without an enforcement mechanism, this is basically a public shaming with no enforcement. Should there be an enforcement mechanism if we created a points system? What would that look like?

 
Andrew  Barr

February 28, 2012

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Costinel,

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis! I had a few comments on your points— you say: "in my view, the comparison with the industry is not quite helpful, because the objectives are different: while the industry is about making profit, NATO is about fostering, protecting and promoting values, as I said before;" -- I would argue that the associations you mentioned -- Fair Labor Association, Electronic Industry Citizenship Coalition -- are NOT about making money, but rather about demonstrating each organization's commitment to the unified goals of all members and to the world at large -- as would also be the case in such a NATO accountability system.

You assert that “The allied solidarity and indivisibility of security cannot and should not be quantified otherwise they will lose their paramount symbolic significance.” Yet, even in the United States, the solidarity and indivisibility of states IS Quantified -- by population and subsequent representation in the US House of Representatives and every 10 year a US Census, mandated by our constitution, is conducted to re-quantify -- that is, give greater representation to those states with larger populations. In fact, the US nomination process for President of the United States is conducted similarly by the Democratic and Republican parties -- with states having larger populations getting a greater voice in the Presidential candidate selection.

Megan,

You bring up a very valid point! However, I would point out that because there is also a lack of a proportional quantitative mechanism at the United Nations. Sure, the U.S. has debts, but many argue that because the U.S. shoulders much of the burden (roughly one-quarter of the U.N. peacekeeping budget and slightly less than a quarter of the separate U.N. regular budget is paid for by the United States). I think worldwide visibility of the points system initially -- like the visibility of corporate associations as to members' compliance -- may be enforcement enough to start with.

NATO needs to incorporate public relations techniques (that the UN has lacked) into making members who follow and meet point commitments as looking really good outstanding citizens/members of NATO and the rest of the world. If the average person doesn't know how their country or any other country stands in NATO or the UN or any international body, they are not especially likely to push their government to change its policy towards that body. A publicly accessible and publicized point system -- especially making use of current social media mechanics -- would undoubtedly increase pressure on countries to be better members.
 
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February 28, 2012

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To Costine: while an altruistic "One for all and all for one" mentality may be heartening NATO needs to adapt to a changing world. The diffusion of military and economic clout around the globe makes it imperative that NATO does everything it can to increase member contribution. While American power was sufficient to hold up the alliance for a number of years, emerging realities show us this no longer to be the case. We need to evaluate the purpose of NATO. If NATO is to effectively "promote Western Values" then it will have to start asking for increased contributions from member states. When it comes to operations out of theater, members which give more should be able to have greater control on policy because they are the ones who will be incurring the greatest cost. Your revulsion to the concept of transaction based policy is understandable but ultimately we need to make decisions which better the operational capabilities of NATO. I look at Mr. Barr's proposition as a first step to creating a more robust NATO.
 
Megan Ann Reiss

February 28, 2012

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Andrew---I think this last paragraph begins to answer the stage two question of what this point system could mean, but I still think we'd have to address the free-rider issue in the case that a country doesn't particularly feel compelled to live up to the point system, when there is no enforcement mechanism. I'm still not convinced that if a country gets all the protection of NATO, it will feel the need to contribute more resources when those resources could be spent elsewhere, especially in times of economic crisis. I think the only way this could work is that, before citizens cared about where there country stands in NATO, the citizens have to first really care about NATO in the first place.

Ownership is great, and I think most agree that we want every State in NATO to feel ownership in the organization, to the point where they will contribute in any means necessary. But I wonder how this system will address the greater issues for creating a 'we' in NATO, which is getting the public and leaders to be convinced that NATO is 1) a necessary alliance that is not just a relic of Cold War history and 2) a better idea than simply transitioning to a solely EU military force.

In short, despite some implementation issues that I addressed earlier, which, as Andrew said, would need to be worked out, this could be a great step for increasing the accountability of countries to their citizens, and countries to NATO---if the citizens of those countries first care about NATO.
 
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February 28, 2012

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A couple of comments on Daryl's response:

First, NATO is not an organization of equals. You must separate the NAC's consensus driven process from the military structure of NATO as a whole. If NATO was truly an organization of equals, the SACEUR would not always be an American and the Secretary General would not always be European. NATO is not a six year old's soccer team where everyone gets a chance to play. The strongest military is represented by the SACEUR.

Second, your assertion that "larger and more capable NATO states" could be against a point system because a high point number "would automatically imply their greater degree of responsibility in NATO operations" does not make much sense to me. One reason people advocate for a point system is so that the "freeloaders" among NATO start contributing more. Therefore I would argue the counter of your claim. Those who would score high in a point system might welcome their number because low scoring countries would likely be pressured to step up their contributions in the next Libya (Syria?) thus easing their burden. Remember, this would be a weighted system based on a myriad of factors including GDP, military spending, literacy rates, participation in training exercises among others. Those who truly believe they are contributing their fair share would have nothing to fear so long as everyone can agree on a point total formula. That part would be admittedly difficult.


Regards,

Andrew Collins
 
Stephanie Theresa Baulig

February 28, 2012

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Dear Andrew,
due to time shift I just got to read your answers now.
By saying that every member state contributing the best it can, I referred to its more or less natural limits - Iceland, e.g. has meen mentioned several times as an extreme example. This country can hardly contribute at the same level as the US or Germany due to its size, the number of its population and the outstanding and special fact that there is no standing army. I do not deny that there are countries who willingly and intetionally avoid a certain degree of contribution to save money, manpower or other. But from a general and idealistic point of view, all member countries contribute within its limits.
I intended to point out that th point system you suggested would hardly meet the specific situation of each country, since Iceland e.g. has to "work" a lot more in order to achieve the same number of points as the US.
Thank you for your response!
Kind regards,
Stephanie
 
Andrew  Barr

February 28, 2012

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Megan,

The issue of enforcement is certainly a complex one, but as I mentioned earlier, mandating certain amounts of involvement is essentially a non-option for NATO, but the system doesn’t rely on enforcement; in a way, it is self-enforcing. You speak of the necessity of citizens caring about where their country stands in NATO and the importance of publics caring about NATO as an institution. I agree- such realizations are vital to the “they”-“we” transformation, a change prompted by the transparent nature of the point system, as well as the public relations campaign that would necessarily accompany it, a program aimed at educating publics at the advantages of high NATO participation specifically through exchange programs as well as a variety of other educational means.
The current global security climate is one that calls for a strong NATO, and effectively communicating the need for such is a crucial part of fostering strong bonds of community between NATO member states.

Stephanie,

Thank you for clarifying! However, I must disagree with your assertion that the point system would “hardly meet the specific situation of each country.” Indeed, as state in the article, the capacity of a given state to act would be weighed against its actions. Thus, in the example of Iceland, while it may be limited in what it can do or what it can contribute, it would still compete in terms of point values with larger states with broader operational capacities because of the proportionality of the system. A country like Iceland would not have to work “more” in order to achieve parity with other states, merely “differently.” It could be as simple as providing airfields and hangars for NATO aircraft, or intelligence services—regardless, it is this diversity of participation that the point system can encourage and expand, strengthening the abilities of NATO as a whole in doing so.
 
Donn  Baca

February 28, 2012

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A very interesting and lively discussion, certainly one well worth having. Ultimately though I would have to say the notion of a points system is not only a difficult one, it is completely unviable. Andrew actually provides the perfect example himself, the HDI, such a massively flawed index in itself because of the the components and methodolgy for weighting/scoring. Pandora's Box would indeed be opened and the in-fighting directly related to how to score and value the contributions of different member states would be intense.
The points concept itself would also exaggerate the "we-they" dynamic turning it not into a collection of nations striving to achieve a level of visible public parity in terms of their relative contributions, but instead a struggle to avoid looking bad and therefore "us vs. them". The race would be on to rack up the easiest/cheapest point totals. There wouldn't be a race to the top either...just a race to the middle. Certainly not the desired objective.
Ultimately member nations either have the desire and the ability to be active and valuable NATO partners, or they don't. The old question arises, which came first, the chicken or the egg? Those nations motivated and eager to be great relative and contributing partners whatever their relative capacities will do so and can do so more readily due to the support of their citizens. Those nations less interested and eager to commit their resources, regardless of their overall ability, will do just that.
The desire and sense of purpose to commit national resources, which in many cases have not only shrunk, but will continue to shrink - especially due to dynamics such as shrinking populations and the exponentially increasing stresses which will result within the highly socialized democracies in Europe in particular will be enormous. Everyone sees the economic crisis which exists currently, but nobody seems to be paying any attention to the greater one which is to come. Regardless of whether a moderate recovery occurs within the Euro-zone, there is no longer a way to avoid the eventual collapse of most of the social safety-net/social welfare systems within an already highly-taxed Europe. The first vicitm of that in terms of funding will be defense, further constricting bottom lines in terms of national budgets and defense/military expenditures.
It is no secret or mystery that the Alliance and its members are already aggressively talking about burden-sharing and "smart defense", and that is just in response to the present and near-term financial/macroeconomic challenges. Those are challenges that will be dwarfed given the impending problems related to population dynamics.
The desire and committment of NATO's members to participation in NATO as "their alliance" must be enhanced to ensure that popular support exists for their nations' strong and active role within the alliance. Competition between them (which a points system might instill) won't achieve that...teamwork might. Lacking a tangible and formidable opponent to engage, all peace-time alliances face the current sort of malaise. The global war on terror isn't sufficient to galvanize the public of most NATO nations since they don't all consider themselves targets.
In terms of teamwork as a strengthening system, that is a difficult dynamic. Unfortunately it is a very difficult team to build in terms of achieving the best outcome. Consider the nature of every effective team though - everyone has a role to play. Everyone has different strengths and weaknesses. Think how difficult it is to place a value on each player's role and value to a team of any kind. That is what a point system ultimately would entail. We can go all the way back to Socrates in Plato's "Republic" everyone "specializes" and that is proper.
Outside of those points there is another important aspect. Take one dynamic that I discussed today with NATO's Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy, Kolinda Grabar - how would one measure the value of something that can't accurately be measured, yet is worth-its-weight-in-gold? I would specifically point to the enthusiasm and genuine support and desire to participate by many of NATO's newer Central and Eastern European members. Like most people who have crawled out from being under the domination of others - they are intensely committed to NATO and its mission and while they are often financially unable to contribute to the same relative extent of other members, they are disproportionately willing and supportive of contributing their forces. How can one value/assess the importance of the those deeply committed versus those with deeper pockets or better weapons? I will take motivated and eager troops and their nations over those who are reluctant or lack national support any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Until a material and credible threat exists to the safety, security and survival of all NATO member states, there will remain a number of nations less committed and willing to fully support NATO in its various missions/roles. That cannot be avoided, only recognized and mitigated. The Alliance itself must best determine how to engage those member states and all the other members as best they might. The best way to do so would be to recognize the level of committment of each and partner with them in appropriate manners so as to help them maintain a degree or pride and esprit de corps as partners. That comes from setting realistic but not excessively easy goals to achieve - and from a military perspective that is always appreciated. Missions and the tools to complete them, that is a starting point. We must hope that economic considerations won't slowly strip away the resources required - but that is already a danger.

DB Baca
DePaul University
 
Greg Randolph Lawson

February 28, 2012

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While I think NATO is for intra-European stability, I think that is strong enough reason for it to exist and remain robust. A breakdown of NATO, especially in these tumultuous economic ties could see a revival, over the long-term, of older European rivalries. We may yet to have fully escaped history's grasp, but NATO would make it more likely that we can avoid tumbling too far backwards.

Even absent the unifying threat of the Soviet Union, that fear, the fear of sliding back into interal fractiousness and possible conflict should be enough of an adhesive to keep the "West" interested in NATO.

The problem with this is that it will be a circumscribed NATO, but, that may have its own benefits by limiting the need for unbearable expenditures (of the type no one but the US is willing to make right now even as NATO seeks its out of theatre engagement opportunities).
 
Timothy James Hatter

February 28, 2012

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Good Luck on the Job Search Andrew.
 
Daryl  Morini

February 29, 2012

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Dear Andrew Collins,

Thanks for your comments, and let me try to clarify my assertions. You begin by saying that NATO is not an organization of equals – I fundamentally agree. In fact, the second paragraph of my first post clearly set out my view that some Allies are more equal than others; so we are in agreement.

I wrote that we could expect some resistance on the points system because it would imply “a de facto recognition of the power imbalances within the Alliance. This would undercut the consensual approach of the NAC, by suggesting that...NATO members’ voices formally carried unequal weights.”

I am far from suggesting that NATO is an organisation of equally-powerful states; military capabilities and budgets belie this idea. But at the political-diplomatic level, we cannot deny that they are: the consensual decision-making process of the NAC means that Luxemburg, theoretically, can veto a decision it feels strongly about just as much as the United States can. NATO members don’t “vote”, per se, but decide by consensus – so all Allies are equal insofar as the decision-making process goes.

You suggest that I should separate the NAC from the military structure of NATO as a whole. I see the analytical attraction of this proposition, but it is problematic in practice. I fully understand that NATO is an integrated peace-time military Alliance and, as such, its military purpose far outstrips the role of its civilian staff. However, the NAC remains the supreme decision-making body of NATO as a whole, and there is a strict hierarchy in civilian-military relations which dictate – excuse the strong verb – that NATO’s military missions are subject to the prior political approval of all Allied nations.

Of course, I am not naive about the greater influence and decision-making ‘weight’ which great powers have in making decisions, and then presenting them to the NAC for approval. I am well-aware that NATO is not child’s play, and unfortunately power plays are still part of the equation; I also know that certain high-ranking positions are reserved for certain powers. However, the reason I predicted unease among Allies about the points system is the risk of officially recognising, codifying and institutionalising these power inequalities into NATO officialdom – a potentially very divisive proposal. Andrew Barr himself agreed with some of the ideas I put forward to tactfully manage this issue, and we seem to have come to a tentative consensus.

Finally, I apologise if you could make no sense of my idea that some larger NATO member-states (I used the example of Germany) might be against a points system because it "would automatically imply their greater degree of responsibility in NATO operations." Let me simply point out that nations in the NAC, even the more powerful ones, are very jealous of their national decision-making prerogatives, as I previously argued. (France is a notorious example). All the powers constantly seek assurances that certain decisions do not entail “automaticity” – implying that they would not be consulted again before a certain decision was made or implemented.

The reason that I am so confident that even the great powers will be sceptical of a points system which attached certain responsibilities to certain scores is that burden-sharing for NATO missions, and we could use the examples of Libya and Afghanistan, is a process at times resembling tooth extraction surgery. It is not simply the case that the most capable Allies contribute automatically (as we saw in Libya), or that the most powerful Allies are the most dedicated and determined (there are many examples in the NATO-ISAF mission in Afghanistan). In sum, a lot of buck-passing happens, and free-loading is not only a problem with smaller Allies, but is inherent to NATO as a whole. Therefore, I think that your claim that “Those who would score high in a point system might welcome their number because low scoring countries would likely be pressured to step up their contributions in the next Libya (Syria?) thus easing their burden” might make sense in a political vacuum, and perhaps from an ideal military force generation perspective, but it fails to take into account the quintessential importance of national political decisions.

In reality, the results of nations’ point scores would be highly political and politicised. The decisions about current and future interventions – including Syria, as you suggest – remain fundamentally about national interests and domestic political decisions, not about burden-sharing. I highly doubt that, given Germany’s presumably high point score, it would feel compelled to join any hypothetical air campaign against the Syrian regime; this would be not simply to misread, but to completely ignore the importance of history and politics in the preferences and contributions of all Allied nations. If Germany participates in a mission in Syria, which I do not exclude, it will be out of its national interest and national conscience - not because its quantitative score forced it to act. On the importance of history in explaining Allies' contributions to operations, and on many other brilliant points – including the flaws of the HDI – I can only defer to Donn Paul Baca’s very convincing comment above.

For your interest, a very insightful dissection of the multiple factors which shape the decisions of France, the UK and Italy to contribute to certain operations, including international prestige, I recommend reading Jason W. Davidson’s 'America’s Allies and War’ (2011).

Thank you once more for your comments, and do feel free to keep the conversation going if you have any further points you would like to clarify or discuss. With my best regards,

Daryl
 
Unregistered User

February 29, 2012

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Andrew is proposing quite a neat state of affairs.

As already noted. the points system has been long employed in industry, business, as well as in the public sector, measuring flow rate, quality and presence. The latest "buzzword" for that useful evaluation mechanism is "Performance-Based Management".

Nevertheless, rather than relating to profit-oriented entities from the world of Adam Smith, one should remain focused on the intergovernmental nature of NATO which is very unlikely to move to a serious supranational direction.

Unlike Adam Smith's world which is strictly hierarchical, the Alliance represents a horizontal arrangement at least formally. Regardless of the uneven distribution of capabilities among the Allies, there is always the non-destroyable ideational element, the element of national pride that is likely to prevent any useful establishment of the points system. This would be more so, since, under such system, the burden-sharing problem might even become relative, and without any significant change in national force and other contributions: namely, the real contributions of certain NATO members today, especially if measured in the light of the proposed ratio between an HDI equivalent (capacity) and national military performance profile, might overshadow the nominal contributions and absolute numbers of much larger and engaged Allies (including the US).

So I doubt the use of math and statistics would be of great help in a value-based club where solidarity is supposed to be a free will of responsible sovereign state rather than a forced reaction to a public critic deriving from findings in the datasheet.

Thanks.


 
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March 1, 2012

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Andrew, wonderful article!

Your specific identification of the problem and creative solution is one that should be considered currently at NATO. I have been studying NATO closely for years, I teach world affairs in college and I understand the complex dynamics NATO brings to the world stage. I applaud you for coming up with such an inventive solution, and one that many can agree on. I am going to steal this article and use it as a teaching tool for my class.

Keep up the great work!

Yuri
 
Milda  Leonaviciute

March 2, 2012

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Dear Andrew,

Congratulations with a great article. You, as a US Navy Reservist, have a different point of view to NATO as a military alliance than the civilians.
I could not agree more that exchange programs of all kinds would be the key in strengthening the community and increasing cooperation among member nations.
Your “points system” is a truly innovative and admirably interdisciplinary but as well a controversial idea. You have a very interesting suggestion which is really worth a discussion (which has already arisen!). I, however, support the comment that Daryl made previously, that an opposition to this concept may arise from the smaller NATO member and partner nations. And this system indeed needs to be defined more into details.

Kind regards,
Milda
 

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