August 13, 2009

Member deleted

China as a provocateur is something that is a little of news. The alignments are beginning to be felt clearly and that whih seems to be flowing out from intelligent Russian movements. In the game of Chess - it is never the issue of cold calculations (though it has been reduced to who wins the game in few hours or days) that marks the winner. Russia's approach of a partnership-of-equals involves certain abstract values. The recognition of this new concept and the flow-outs from it perhaps may be marking this slow targetting of states that are warming up to Russia's new normative approach towards inter-state relations at the global level.
Hysteria and the hysteria of losing the edge can often lead many commentators of global politics (aligned in national senses and rarely aligned to global politics as an observer free from such identifications) to see things as some nasty manipulation. Even within the realm of real-politik, the right to manipulation is not a reserved forte or area - should the success of particular powers engineer such reactions. They do make for tactical gains (in perhaps both careers and areas won) - but mark a strategic loss of those areas as well as relevance and in terms of respect and salience.
The recognition of a multi-polar world brings with it its own focus areas and new normative focus. Something that Russia seems to be doing rather well. Those recognitions and the abstract incalculable aspect of respect for states and civilizations go a long way in the global arean of politics. So it is with Chess games - of any repute. But yes, no power can be ignored - especially China. How you notice them makes the difference.

August 13, 2009

Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)

China surely matters more than it did in 1999. It's GDP has grown to a size rivaling or exceeding any other country on earth - with the single exception of the US of course.

Can China project power globally? Economic power certainly. China is an economic
power in Asia, and in parts of Africa and South America. It's voice is certainly heard globally. China will continue to grow stronger for a long while yet.

China is able to keep others out of it's vicinity. Neither the US or any other power is likely to want to engage in a land war in Asia any time soon. Chinese naval power is less dominant as yet, the US can probably defeat China in a naval war should it occur. But it won't, I think; neither the US or China is likely to wish such a confrontation in the forseeable future.

Does China make 'trouble' in the UNSC? Depends upon your perspective. Any way you look at it China is a Great Power in the scheme of things, and Great Powers tend to throw their weight around; it is to be expected. Only someone who believes the 'West' deserves to have it's own way in everything would object to some of it. In most cases it's only an obstruction in the UN, and goals can be furthered away from the UN and the Chinese veto, not least in bilateral or regional diplomacy with China a particpant, but away from the spotlight.

This debate reminds me a little of the debate about Japan during the late 80's. Japan was going to overtake the US and become a dominant power globally. Well it didn't happen, did it? Japan remains rich but the direct Japanese share of world trade is perhaps shrinking. The Japanese conglomerates have become true transnationals and are as powerful as ever, and they magnify Japanese influence. But Japan is not a superpower nor likely to become one. It could be a Great Power if it wanted to, there is no question of that. Some might argue that it is one of the Great Powers. But if so, only in the sense that Germany or France are Great Powers.

China (and India) have the potential to go further, because of their populations. But poverty is still pervasive in those countries. They have to be able to develop and take advantage of something like their full population, or at least a much larger share than they do now.

Perhaps they will, perhaps something will get in the way. Their future is in their own hands.

August 18, 2009

Joshua Posaner, SOAS, Silver Contributor (73)

Thank you both for your contributions. China's rise is certainly a hot topic and one that will be explored further as the fallout from the recent credit crisis becomes clear. I agree that China matters greatly to the global order, political economy and cultural context in which we now live. However, I find it interesting to deconstruct the arguments and look at how China matters and in what way it matters?

A strong China economically means very different things than a strong China militarily. Arguably China is both but the argument can, and has, been made convincingly that Beijing has little actual military might comparatively speaking. It may spend a lot but it still lags behind many global players in the arms 'league'. I also do not believe that China makes trouble in the UNSC but that its policy internationally is pragmatic and subsequently can often be portrayed as being troublesome.

China's rise bears many similarities to the rise of Japan in the 80's, not in the similarity of its domestic policies but rather in perceptions by the West. In the literature of the time it appears that realists regarded Japan as a possible threat militarily in the same way that realist commentators often accuse China of having aggressive tendencies internationally.

Please excuse the underdeveloped nature of some of these points but I will continue the discussion as soon as I'm able. In the meantime, do either of you believe that China will emerge as a serious threat to Western interests over the next 10 years?

September 28, 2009

Margareta Chudnovsky, NYU MSGA Student, (8)

This past week I read two articles that paint China from two very different perspectives, as we continue to assess it's growing role and influence in the international arena.

On the one hand, the Institutional Investor had a lengthy analysis on the role of China in a post-Lehman world. Surely the economy which owns the most US government debt now certainly matters and wields a considerable amount of influence. For example, when the People's Bank of China's Governor made comments earlier this year about considering replacing the USD as the global reserve currency with the SDR, global markets took a substantial hit from those implications. Indicating that China opinions and propositions are certainly taken seriously.

On the other hand, in Forbes magazine was another side of China. A series of unrelated stabbings in Beijing prompted the government to temporarily ban the selling of kitchen knives at large retailers, including Wal-Mart. A level of government intervention that would certainly not be expected from a free market economy. As China continues to grow, it seems like it will need to decide how much it will want to matter? Because the governments involvement in something as small as the sale of kitchen knives may certainly prevent it from playing a more meaningful role in the global arena.