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Russia has been hit especially hard by the economic crisis. Katinka Barysch of the British Center for European Reform calls it the "triple whammy of collapsing world trade, lack of finance and low oil prices" and adds that "Russia needs foreign investment, technology and market access more than before." Its economy depends more on the West than in recent years, when the skyrocketing oil and gas prices gave the Kremlin the confidence for an assertive foreign policy vis-à-vis NATO and its "near abroad."

For this and other reasons, one might assume that the global economic crisis would constitute a window of opportunity to enhance cooperation between the US and the European Union on the one side and Russia on the other.

The experts from Western think tanks and universities interviewed by Atlantic-Community.org are, however, not particularly optimistic in this regard. Nine of the 21 analysts see a chance for increased cooperation, but most of them add qualifiers and conditions. Nearly a third (six) declined to speculate on this matter, while another third of the experts was quite outspoken in describing the prospects of a more cooperative Western-Russian relationship as unlikely.

Janusz Bugajski with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC points out that "Russia's brewing domestic problems precipitated by the global financial crisis will not ensure that its expansionist ambitions are aborted. On the contrary, in order to deflect attention from mounting social and regional disquiet, the Kremlin may further cultivate the sense of besiegement to threaten and destabilize various neighbors in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus and test Western reactions."

Even Katinka Barysch, who had stressed Russia's dependence on foreign investment and market access in this crisis, considers enhanced cooperation unlikely: "The crisis is fuelling protectionist and nationalist tendencies in Russia and the leadership looks unlikely to proceed with reforms at a time when discontent among workers and pensioners is rising."

Heiko Pääbo from the University of Tartu in Estonia comments that the "economic crisis slowed down Russia's growing self-confidence to confront to the US and Europe," but has not changed the Kremlin's ambitions, which would require a change of government or an economic crisis as severe as in the beginning of the 90s.

Eugeniusz Smolar from the Center for International Relations in Poland agrees. Russia's economic difficulties are not yet big enough to make Russian leaders "more cooperative and change their policies in two important areas: energy and relations with the neighbors."

The role of Russia's energy policy in any partnership is a common theme among most of the survey participants. Ivo Samson from the Research Center of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association suggests that Russia may continue to "try to use the energy policy as an instrument to divide Europe on various issues."
       
The longevity of the crisis is a factor highlighted also by Marek Madej of the Polish Institute of International Affairs. Like many analysts he adds that the prospects for increasing cooperation also depend on the economic policies adopted by the West, and points out that even the European Union and the US have different approaches.

While several experts, for instance Teemu Naarajärvi from the University of Helsinki, are concerned about protectionism, Jan Závěšický with the International Institute of Political Science of Masaryk University in the Czech Republic, is reassured by Prime Minister Putin's remarks against trade restrictions at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Although the economic crisis might not lead to a new partnership between Russia and the West, it will certainly bring the European Union and the US closer together, argue Maciej Mróz, University of Wroclaw, and Heiko Pääbo. However, greater unity within the European Union is even more vital. Therefore the next and final installment of this survey, to be published on Monday, June 22, 2009, will outline policy recommendations to make EU countries act more cohesively vis-à-vis Russia.

Part I: Russian Mindset is Greatest Barrier to Improved Relationship with the West

Part II: A Future with Russia as a Strategic Partner?

Part III: Economic Crisis not Severe Enough to Change Kremlin Policy

Part IV: Broad EU Debate Needed on Russia's Role

 
Experts who participated in the Atlantic-Community.org survey:

Katinka Barysch, Centre for European Reform, United Kingdom

Dr. Michael Brzoska, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik, Germany

Janusz Bugajski, Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States of America

Leonidas Donskis, Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania

Dr. Hans-Georg Ehrhart, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik, Germany

Sami Faltas, Centre for European Security Studies, The Netherlands

Dr. Hans J. Giessmann, Berghof Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management, Germany

Merijn Hartog, Centre for European Security Studies, The Netherlands

Andres Kasekamp, Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, Estonia

Lukasz Kulesa, Polish Institute of International Affairs, Poland

Teemu Naarajärvi, University of Helsinki, Finland

Marek Madej, Polish Institute of International Affairs, Poland

Dr. Jeffrey Mankoff, Yale University, United States of America

Maciej Mróz, University of Wroclaw, Poland

Heiko Pääbo, University of Tartu, Estonia

Luca Ratti, American University of Rome, Italy

Ivo Samson, Research Center of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, Slovak Republic

Eugeniusz Smolar, Center for International Relations, Poland

Elzbieta Stadtmuller, University of Wroclaw, Poland

Jan Závěšický, International Institute of Political Science of Masaryk University, Czech Republic

Milan Znoj, Charles University, Czech Republic

Picture by Alexander Belenky.