March 10, 2009 |  12 comments |  Print this Article | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Germany's Russia Question

Constanze Stelzenmueller: Germany is a bridge between Russia and the West, and how Berlin chooses to deal with Moscow will set the tone for how the United States and the rest of Europe manage their own relationships with Russia.


Last July, more than 200,000 people flocked to a public park in Berlin to hear Barack Obama, then the Democratic candidate for president of the United States, deliver a speech calling for renewed transatlantic partnership and cooperation. The choice of Germany's long-divided capital as the backdrop for his only public speech in Europe was deliberate. Now that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats?

Both countries would benefit from renewing their Atlantic partnership, but some formidable obstacles persist. The most important relationship Germany will have to navigate is that with Russia, with whom it has deep historical ties. Germany is Russia's largest trading partner and has become increasingly reliant on Russia's energy supplies, buying a third of its oil and gas from the country. There is a genuine military threat to Europe from Russia, as became clear in the August 2008 war between Georgia and Russia and in Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's threats to counter US missile defense plans by stationing Russian missiles in Kaliningrad.

But Berlin's pursuit of what German policymakers have insisted on labeling a "strategic partnership" with Moscow has put Germany in the middle of the evolving tensions between Russia and the West. It has also given Germany a unique responsibility. The old German question has long been solved, with Germany firmly positioned within Europe and the Western group of nations. But now, there is a new and similarly urgent German question for the twenty-first century: Is Germany able and willing to use its considerable political resources to change Russia's behavior and to stand up to Moscow when necessary?

The war in the Caucasus was a defining moment for German attitudes toward Russia, but there will be many more such moments in the months to come. Future challenges posed by Russia will thrust some hard choices on Germany's leadership. It is time for a new Ostpolitik for the post-Caucasus war era. But what is needed is a genuinely transformational scheme. This would require an across-the-board, rather than a bilateral, approach. Germany and the West should engage Russia broadly and imaginatively -- rather than grudgingly and selectively, as the Bush administration did -- and contain and counter it when necessary. As the conflict in Georgia showed, firmness and unity from Europe can go a long way, especially when backed up by the United States. EU members and the United States will all lose -- to Russia, mostly -- if they compete against one another in eastern Europe.

Such a comprehensive policy would by necessity be pan-European. But Germany should be its initiator and leader, not only because of its historical responsibility for Eastern Europe but also because its special relationship with Russia gives it greater weight and authority with Moscow than any other country on the continent. The future of Germany's legitimacy as a leader in Europe and as a partner for the United States -- not to mention the future of its soft power -- depends on its success in this role.

However, to take up this challenge, Germany will have to overcome an array of entrenched reflexes. It will have to:

  1. Think of Eastern Europe as a zone of first-order strategic interest rather than as a disparate jumble of faraway countries.
  2. Conceive of its foreign policy not in terms of constraints but in terms of choices.
  3. Overcome its fear of dependency on Russia, recognizing that Russia needs its Western customers as much as they need Russia.
  4. Understand that this new approach is not just about interests and strategy but also about solidarity, namely, defending the rights of countries that seek safety, prosperity, and democratic values and freedoms: the aspirations Obama spoke of in Berlin last summer and that the United States once protected in West Germany. To the extent that Russia acts to deny these essential rights, Germany and all of Europe must comprehend that they are being confronted with an authoritarian challenge to liberal Western democracy. For reasons of moral self-preservation as much as solidarity, balancing is then no longer an option. That, in the end, is the answer to the new German question.

Dr. Constanze Stelzenmüller is Director of the Berlin Office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

A longer version appeared first under the title "Germany's Russia Question - A New Ostpolitik for Europe" in Foreign Affairs (March/April 2009). This shortened version is published with permission from the author.

  • 14
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this Article! What's this?

 
Tags: | NATO | Russia | Germany | GMF |
 
Comments
Unregistered User

March 10, 2009

  • 0
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
Germany's Russia Question needs to be put into perspective, because
history and with that vision to the future is not a pleasing script just reflecting
the last twenty years of liberal Western Democracy.
In short, this type of democracy is motivated by credit favored, deficit encouraged monetary mentality, which was applied without a moral base
and which is now undergoing a violent compression in the USA.
Further the " black hole " of a one ( key ) currency base makes not only living of the savings of others more convenient, but also helps in forming " mega
currency institutions " and put the sovereignty/ autonomy of other countries into considerable doubt.
To add to this perspective and remembering that fifty two US/ Allied military bases are still on German soil, should put the " Diplomatic Cloud " of Germany
into a new light and must be seen from the perspective of corralled
subordinated countries.
On the other hand Poland 's and Czech Republic's desire to host
defense sytems against mischevious nations, should serve as a reminder that history can repeat itself , sometimes in a contra-flow motion.
Therefore the German- Russian Question must now be seen from
geneological considerations as both countries have a long history
of interactive relationships.
Then, advocating a " Swedish Corridor " through Eastern Europe
to the Black Sea would clearly show one's objectives for whatever
imperial reaons.

HRF

Tags: | athens |
 
Marie-Claude  Corneauster

March 11, 2009

  • 0
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
"Germany is a bridge between Russia and the West"

Really ? I thought there are planes now, Ms Clinton used one lately, though she still is handicaped, she doesn't understand russian, but Ms Merkel does

"Such a comprehensive policy would by necessity be pan-European. But Germany should be its initiator and leader, not only because of its historical responsibility for Eastern Europe but also because its special relationship with Russia gives it greater weight and authority with Moscow than any other country on the continent. The future of Germany's legitimacy as a leader in Europe and as a partner for the United States"

I bet that the other European nations will swallow that, Germany has been playing PERSO, I don't mind, if she doesn't care when the other EU nations do it too, though, sumthin tells me that she is not quit on the same waves, following the Brussels rules is for them !
 
Colette Grace Mazzucelli

March 12, 2009

  • 2
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
Constanze,

Thank you for this piece, which I read after your article in Foreign Affairs. I have two questions related to Germany's role vis-a-vis Russia.

First, do you believe that Germany can be persuasive with Russia in multilateral negotiations (P5 + 1) with Iran regarding a host of issues, particularly the reconstruction of Afghanistan as a way prevent Iran's continued isolation over the nuclear issue? I attended The Fares Center conference on Iran last week at Tufts University. One of the conclusions was that the US should be thinking about Iran, the US should be thinking about Iran differently, and the US should not think about Iran too much, meaning, the US should not overemphasize the nuclear issue at the expense of other important matters on which America and Iran may share common interests. I think Germans may share that line of thinking. The question is how can German diplomacy with Russia support the changes required to make it happen.

Second, I would be interested to hear your thoughts about the ways in which Germany can approach the countries of central and eastern Europe as "a zone of first-order strategic interest" on the basis of solidarity given the economic and financial crisis these countries face individually in the present upheaval.

My sense is that Chancellor Merkel is in favor of EU assistance on a case-by-case basis. This approach sparks genuine concern in those countries, particularly Hungary, that fear a lack of support from the Union. Is this not also an issue of solidarity for the Union as a whole? If central and eastern Europe spirals downward in the months to come, the impact will surely be felt in Germany and the rest of the EU member states. How would this evolution impact on Russia's policy toward Germany and the Union? I realize that the timing is sensitive with domestic elections in September. In terms of the convergence of political and economic difficulties in Germany, are we looking potentially at a perfect storm?

Many thanks and greetings from New York, Colette
 
Unregistered User

March 12, 2009

  • 2
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
Brilliantly really for some of writers of above, it is completely true since if are Russian understood truly then its by Germans. The old European constitutional story coming slowly again to the top of old mainland’s agenda and would be intensified in next periods, or years and its more than certainly. The last negative happening on international scene following by heavy incoming financial crisis, speaks in favor of that. Its clean-cut obvious that contemporary world needs too much prudential political interconnection to face forthcoming emergencies. We will need the old connoisseurs to sit among them and to make more valuable and useful to all deals. Speaking on behalf of my part of SE Europe as well as Eastern, we are too conscious of these ties, the special relationship between Germany and Russia. The context would be at first of economic concern because of the spirals downward in the months to come but with some foregone political consequences that would be followed economic crisis intensity, for sure. With US and other out of mighty worlds G-8 too busy with the rest of the world, we on the age of Europe, no defining still will be seeing towards the two historically most important side for these European parts and its special relationship. As always we are a bit scared of them, but fortunately this is a new millenniums. Too tired of their past, the relationship this time would be brought a new quality and significantly help us all to overcome the next spirals downturn. But allow me a remark, respectable Ms. Stelzemilller set the topic a bit in general even perfectly lined main current possible themes apart from 4 for so much large agenda as this question really represent in Europe. In that context probably shouldn’t position Germany firmly to the West for the a/m future coordination and even by banal insight with walking across the all of Eastern Europe you can see what Iam speaking about. Concerning Russia is the same, as it said, the topic seems as to big for even partial involving. Take for example one of the atlantic branch, e. g. about the climate change in general , and mighty Russian state apparently will be one of the main future actors in north hemisphere by nature of its overhead world polar line and quite is certain that its wouldn’t be its interstate problem and solution whatever it would be. Engineering form Germany has always been a significant part of Russias progress and vice versa, why wouldn’t be in future again.

 
Unregistered User

March 14, 2009

  • 0
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
Of course, one looks forward to a better relations between various states. That europe should look at the CIS states and Russia in particular to improve their ties is always welcome one. That Germany should see itself in a new role and a new responsibility: in fostering better ties within the neighbourhood of the EU is of course a welcome awareness, as that awareness is also perhaps a shared idealism and vision.
The differences that are there are also real and in a "partnership of equals" that Russia seems to be espousing, it would be important to treat partners as such. As equals, a certain maturity and a certain clarity within relations arise. It also rids the air of any noxious fumes - since equality always assumes a shared concern for equal opportunities for growth. How Germany achieves this with Russia will also be a pointer to other states in the region and who may already view Russia as an equal. "Partnership-of-equals" is of course a wonderful concept for the term partnership always enjoins the shared concern for order and growth.
Tags: | EU | Germany | Russia |
 
Simona  Lipstaite

March 15, 2009

  • 1
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
Thank you for the intersting perspective put forth in the article. I am in full agreement that the EU and the US need to recognise both the "genuine military threats" and the dangers to European solidarity which Russia may pose. However, I do not think that Germany is necessarily in the position to be either the brigde between Russia or the leader of a new "Western" policy towards Russia. Why?

1. While Germany is an important trading partner of Russia, so are many other EU members and candidates. The only reason that Germany is able to exercise "soft power" on Russia bilaterally is because it fails to respond to the Russian tactic of "divide and rule" regarding European Union members. This is far from laudable.

2. The EU and the US have different objectives and historical relationships with Russia. While the US may hope to work with Russia in the fields of anti-terrorism and other global challenges, both its geographical location and many of its strategic interests are incomparable to those of Europe. The EU and its energy dependeny, European Neighbourhood Programme and direct interests in countries such as Ukraine and Georgia often pose much greater dangers in the eyes of Moscow than does the US. EU enlargements are watched just as carefully, if not more, than NATO enlargements.

3. Germany, after all, is one of the leading promoters of European integration. If it is to play an important role in fostering a coherent and strong EU policy, particularly under the second pillar, it needs to move away from its bilateral relationship with Russia and concentrate on building up a strong EU stance regarding the latter.

Finally, to add to Ms Stelzenmüller's list of recommendations for Germany, there is also a need for a coherent European energy policy which would minimise its dependence on Russia. However, particularly with the enlargements of 2004 and 2007, this remains overwhlemingly an EU, rather than German, challenge.
 
Christine  Le Jeune

March 16, 2009

  • 1
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
One need only speak with a handful of Moscow politicians and professors to quickly discover that, for a number of historical and cultural reasons, Russians have developed a closer relationship with Germany than other European countries. Throughout my time in Moscow, I have repeatedly witnessed such commentary on the “special” nature of German-Russian relations. Thus it is only reasonable that these close relations place Germany in a position of “unique responsibility” vis-à-vis relations between Russia and the West. The key question is how to proceed from this realization.

While I share Ms. Stelzenmüller’s argument that Berlin should utilize its leverage with Moscow to improve ties between Russia and the U.S. and rest of Europe, I question how Germany should concretely engage Russia “broadly and imaginatively”, and how Berlin should proceed with the balancing act she recommends it engage in.

Another question, also raised by Ms. Stelzenmüller, is whether it is even possible for Berlin to potentially sway Moscow. Maintaining control of the internal political sphere remains a priority for Kremlin leaders concerned primarily with their own interests and agendas. To justify its policies to the public, the Kremlin relies heavily upon its widely propagated perception of “the West” (primarily the U.S.) as an aggressive, viable threat that cannot be trusted. Thus the true potential of Berlin’s effectiveness in getting through to Moscow remains questionable.

Russians often complain that German-Russian relations are overshadowed by the more prevalent and problematic U.S.-Russian relationship. The problem is that Russia fails to understand the German-U.S. relationship as one built upon a system of common democratic values that inherently unite the two across the Atlantic, regardless of geographical distance. Instead – reflecting the way Russia itself acts on the international stage – Russia continues to view these transatlantic ties in purely geopolitical terms. Ultimately, Russia would rather forge its own bilateral relations with Germany with no accompanying U.S. baggage to taint it.
 
Andrey  Chubyk

March 20, 2009

  • 0
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
Time will come and new world will be organised, it is the main meaning of current politicans in EU and in particular in Germany. It is clear that radical steps are to be avoided, but decisions makers have to create now corner stones for future history of Europe. Now there are sitting and waiting firstly meeting of G-20, than NATO-conference and then something else (election in Germany, for example)...
And we are looking and waiting, how will have more success those from the West or these from the East.

Waiting on Germany alone to rule in relations will bring few positive becouse instead of joining the whole EU we divide member countries into privileged negotiators with Russia or someone else
 
Unregistered User

May 16, 2009

  • 0
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
Russia is too big and powerful for one nation in the EU to tackle alone. If Russian "divide and conquer" tactics are to be countered the EU must act as a bloc. This means that the EU must get it's own house in order politically and economically. Coordination of effort with North America will only strength the EU's position.
Tags: | russia eu |
 
Donald  Stadler

May 18, 2009

  • 0
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
"Coordination of effort with North America will only strength the EU's position. "

Teh EU combines efforts with the US to deal with Russia, but it was not long ago that the EU combined efforts with Russia to deal with the US.

Perhaps it's time for the US and Russia to combine efforts, no?
 
Radoslaw  Kowalski

May 27, 2009

  • 2
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
As a person from Poland, pan-German sentiments always draw my attention. It appears Ms Constanze Stelzenmüller still considers Eastern Europe as not part of Europe, but a sphere of influence for Europe.
Therefore, there's her statement that Germany is the bridge between Russia and Europe.

Undoubtedly, German-Russian relations are relatively warmer than relationships of Russia with many other countries, but one must not forget that this special interest is out of interest of the two countries. Germany wants to play a leading role in Europe and therefore sees it desirable to strengthen its position through a special relationship with Russia, while Russian politicians, while re-establishing imperialist agenda, pragmatically seek to see a more accommodating European Union. There's nothing magical about this special relationship.

But, coming back to the issue of Eastern Europe being a sphere of influence for Europe...

Maybe Ms. Stelzenmüller forgot that Germany, together with Baltic States, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Roumania is in European Union where all countries are limited by the transnational forces within the EU. Eastern European countries altogether can easily outvote Germany in the European Parliament. Furthermore, EU Eastern European countries plus Ukraine and Belarus are in terms of population and economy more powerful than Russia. As well, as nations, those states have much greater historical experience in neighbouring Russia than Germany. There is no German-Russian border anymore that would empirically justify the bold statement that Germany is the bridge linking 'Europe' and Russia.

Furthermore, it appears, Ms. Stelzenmüller forgot to mention what does 'German responsibility for Eastern Europe' stand for! It's not all positive, as we all know from history and from present day. Czechs and Poles decided to work together with USA despite the potential cost of further losses in independence not only because of Russia's potential for aggressiveness, but also because of German inactivity and tendency to compromise with
Russia bilaterally, without seriously consulting with Eastern European countries.

How could Germany desire becoming a bridge between Russia and what stands for 'Europe' in Ms. Stelzenmüller's own perception? There are stark contrast between her point of view and actual empirical reality

The European reality is no longer like Vienna congress! Cooperation is needed between all interested countries. Germany cannot stand aloof from the disregarded Eastern European nations and set the EU's tone towards Russia by itself. It is partly because it simply becomes disregarded by Eastern European countries themselves, which then turn their backs on the general EU interest and start working towards building their own security despite, and because of, Western Europe's indifference.
It is an Eastern European strategy that historically has proven to have been the most effective.

Seemingly the European Union has changed 'the rules of the game' and countries like Germany will have to become more humble in their foreign policy desires to accommodate other European interests. I'm happy that this kind of ignorance present in Ms. Stelzenmüller's article is about to be finished!
 
Arthur Marian Zielinski

June 14, 2009

  • 0
  •  
  •  
  • No rating possible
  • No rating possible
I like this comment! What's this?
As a resident in Poland I also read Dr. Stelzenmueller's article with some interest. Although I'm curious as to what her version is of Germany's historical responsibility for Eastern Europe (there have been many others, some less than benign), the rest of her reasoning is sound.

I believe Germany is at a crossroads, but is able to build on the solid foundations erected by the Federal Republic from its foundation. The great, unsung foreign policy triumph of the Federal Republic was to systematically, over four decades, erode Soviet influence in Central and Eastern Europe, to expose the tyranny there, to engage with dialogue wherever possible, and to develop a civil society within its own territories that was the envy of societies within the Soviet Bloc.

The Cold War was a war that Germany won, and the triumphalism at the Berlin Wall, because of the processes that had occurred in the forty preceding years, was seen by societies East of the Oder, not as a threat, but as a promise of better times. I disagree with the previous writer - there is a distinct gulf between "sphere of interest" and "zone of first order strategic interest".

It should now be blindingly obvious to most Germans that beyond the economic and energy spheres, the security of their state depends primarily on the way that the societies to the East and South East of their country develop - their economies, their civil governance, and the inter-state relationships that are evolving. Many writers believe a severe economic downturn is coming which will stress these issues, and Germany will have a stabilising role it can play as the dominant military and economic power in the region. The tyranny of geography and history is master of us all, and for German society the key country in question is Poland. It is perhaps Germany's General Motors - "too big to fail" (I hope I don't regret writing this!). Although I am an outsider I am not too pessimistic about the resilience of Polish society, but I believe there will be storms ahead to test us all.

I think there is little dispute as to the "what" - it is the "how" this will take place that concerns Germany's neighbours. I believe that that apart from terrorism and nuclear proliferation the chief foreign policy issue facing the EU is the relationship with Russia. The Moscow seen from Berlin or Paris is a very different one seen from Vilnius or Warsaw. At present the differences are irreconcilable, and inevitably have led to strong bilateral relationships between Moscow and Berlin. Memories, however, are long, and any bilateral arrangements between Germany and Russia will be viewed at least critically by communities that consider being sidelined as a prelude to something worse, and I consider that German diplomacy has profoundly failed to understand and address these issues.

I do agree with the previous writer that a new dialogue must take place between Germany and her Eastern partners. It will take the patience of a saint, need much trust, and not be glamorous, but I believe a new Ostpolitik based on mutual respect will have incalculable benefits for many generations to come, and I believe only Germany has the capacity to set this in motion.

 

Create Comment

Type the characters shown in the image below into the textfield.
Captcha

What are tags?