In the international relations literature of the last decade, there is said to be one prominent victim of globalization: the state. Its power is believed to be waning in the shadow of mighty international institutions and an increasingly important league of non-state actors. However, when using the debate on global governance -- understood here as the way in which international politics is made -- as an analytical filter, the role of the state has to be assessed differently. In my opinion, global governance will be dominated by strong states in 2020. This scenario requires monitoring, regulation and rule enforcement by international institutions if it is to be successful.

By the end of the next decade, international politics will be characterized by regional and policy-based coalitions. While the former will be based on geopolitical questions and regional economic and security integration, the latter will form around cross-cutting issues of global politics such as human rights, environment, and nuclear security. Consequently, international organizations and institutions will gradually forfeit parts of their power. The most important players will be states. Disappointed by the humble benefits of international institutions, states will once again recognize their powerful position in the international system and seek to have influence through bilateral action or in regional and policy-based coalitions.

The group of non-state actors, predominantly NGOs and civil society, will not be able to exercise the momentum produced by the Internet-driven information revolution. This is because of their failure to directly influence the local political processes as they perceive themselves to be distinct entities, alienated from local political decision making. To summarize, global governance in 2020 can be described by the following statement: states, loosely organized in regional or policy-based coalitions, dominate international politics and are only weakly checked by international institutions.

Yet, this forecast must not be allowed to come true. A process of regionalization may solve local problems and stabilize regions better than international institutions' questionable negotiations could do. Global questions, on the other hand, like climate change, poverty and nuclear non-proliferation, need to be dealt with on an inclusive, international level. Accordingly, good global governance needs to be based on rules that govern the behavior of states, and these rules should be integrated into various coalitions.

Thus, international institutions should see themselves as fora for international conflict resolution on global issues. Discussions of regional issues will be perceived as more unsuccessful because they produce less reliable results. Still, international institutions are not doomed. They need to transform themselves into bodies that are capable of formulating and monitoring rules of global governance. These rules need to be obeyed in the inclusive setting of international institutions and for the same reasons, only international institutions are capable of rule monitoring and enforcement. If global governance is to be good, it needs to rely on these two functions of international institutions.

State-actors will thus realize that trusting in international institutions is not the perfect recipe for international stability. They need to be reminded of their power to shape the world. However, this also means that states will have to take the responsibility of positively influencing the world by forging regional coalitions and policy-based alliances. Of course, state level actors will need to modify their strategies and extend their capabilities accordingly to live up to these high expectations.

Finally, non-state actors will have to adapt to the changed role of states by involving themselves more in the local political process and taking political responsibility. On the international level, they must play a more important role, i.e. assisting international institutions in respect to monitoring states but also other non-state actors. Nevertheless, their decision-making power will remain weak and their agenda setting capabilities need to be focused on the national level.

To conclude, in order to make good global governance possible in 2020, states need to be sure of their own power and influence; international institutions should transform their major function from conflict resolution to rule setting and monitoring; and finally, non-state actors should take regional political responsibility and monitor rules together with international institutions.

Tobias Weise is pursuing an MA program in International Relations with the FU Berlin, HU Berlin and University of Potsdam.

This article has been shortlisted for the Atlantic Community's "Global Governance in 2020" student competition.

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