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We’ve taken six of the most viable ways forward on Iraq and spelled out their strategies on the basics: troop numbers, reconstruction, diplomacy, division and aftermath. Get the lowdown on the original Baker-Hamilton report, a standout strategy from a presidential candidate, a few maverick think tankers, and that Bush Administration favorite, the Surge.

1. Iraq Study Group Withdrawal
This plan is based around recommendations from the Baker-Hamilton report of 2006. Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have both adopted the plan, with minor variations. Republican presidential candidate and congressman Ron Paul supported Senator Obama’s Iraq War De-escalation Act of 2007, also based on the report.

Key Points

• Withdraw all combat troops from Iraq by spring 2008
• Revive and accelerate existing economic and reconstruction efforts
• Start dialogue with all of Iraq’s neighbors, including Syria and Iran
• Include the international community through the United Nations Security Council
• Encourage Iraqi leaders to bridge sectarian divide and marginalize militias
• Keep some troops embedded in Iraqi units indefinitely for training, counter-terrorism and advisory and support roles
  
  
  

2. White House Surge
Most eloquently expressed by Max Boot in his statement to the House Armed Services Committee. Supported by the Bush administration and Republican presidential candidates Rudolph Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney.

Key Points

• Create political space through initial troop surge; orderly troop reduction comes later
• Intensify reconstruction
• Implement clear-hold-build strategy as soon as more security is established
• Keep Syria and Iran from interfering
• Don’t talk about division: while federalism is the only solution, any US involvement in planning it would be problematic and politically explosive
  
  
  

3. O’Hanlon/Joseph Soft Partition
Devised by Michael E. O’Hanlon from the Brookings Institute and Edward P. Joseph from Johns Hopkins University. Democratic presidential candidate Joseph Biden and the former president of the Council on Foreign Relations Leslie Gelb first articulated the basic contours of a plan similar to the soft partition concept. Also supported by Republican candidate Sam Brownback, with the notable exception that for strategic reasons he does not favor a fixed and public timetable for withdrawal.

Key Points

• Use surge to help negotiate partition if results are positive (not expected)
• Hold off on reducing troops until soft partition has been completed, approximately 12-18 months
• Provide financial support for job creation and housing programs, identity card issuance, etc.
• Gather international support for partitioning
• Encourage NATO to supply approximately 60,000 troops
• Commence soft partition through ordered population relocation (2-5 million people)
• Implement job creation and housing programs, land swaps, etc.
• Split up oil revenues (25% population, 35% states, 20% government, 20% variable)
• Plan for 300,000 troops to police and secure Iraq’s internal borders (50,000 US, remainder NATO and Iraqi)
  
  
  

4. Conetta Multilateralism
Proposed by Carl Conetta of the Project on Defense Alternatives. Although elements overlap with some presidential strategies, it has not been taken up as a whole by any candidate.

Key Points

• Withdraw all US troops, and quickly: no more than a few thousand troops should be left by mid-March 2008
• Use a multilateral framework for reconstruction
• Gather support for an international peace-keeping force through the UN Security Council
• Give Iraq’s neighbors a central role
• Deploy a majority of soldiers from Arab-speaking countries (around 60,000 troops)
• Make sure that all states participating in the framework agree to forgo unilateral security efforts
• Integrate the Sunni community into political process (amnesty for non-al Qaeda, no de-Baathification, expedient withdrawal)
• Gain acceptance of Shia factions through regional actors
• Replace US troops with an international force
• Maintain an external deterrent force of 15,000, readily deployable to Iraq
• Focus on training and hand-over to international mission until withdrawal is complete
  
  
  

5. Byman Containment
Stand-alone plan from Daniel Byman at the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown. Byman testified in front of the House Armed Services Subcommittee as part of hearings on a “Third Way” in Iraq.

Key Points

• Make substantial reductions to troop presence in Iraq, as soon as safely possible
• Leave 20,000 regional special forces behind for counter-terrorism purposes, training/assisting the Iraqi government, responding to Iranian intervention and containing civil war
• Engage allies and countries in the region
• Discourage Iranian and Syrian involvement by establishing clear repercussions for crossing “red lines”
• Avoid external attempts at partitioning: these would probably escalate the civil war (Yugoslavia was different)
• Prevent refugee-based destabilization by providing financial and technical assistance for Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Kuwait and Bahrain
• Avoid backing individual factions in Iraq
  
  
  

6. Edwards Withdrawal
Unique plan from Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards. Edwards’ strategy draws upon various sources, but combines them in a way that is different enough to constitute a singular approach.

Key Points

• Cap troops at 100,000
• Stop surge now and draw down 40,000 - 50,000 troops
• Complete withdrawal within 12-18 months
• Prohibit funding for new troops
• Establish direct talks among all nations in the region, plus Iran and Syria
• Set up national peace conference involving all neighbors
• Remove all permanent bases from Iraq
• Leave sufficient troops behind in the region to prevent spill-over and genocide, and hunt terrorists
  
  
  Download the full PDF from here.
  
  What do you think is the right way forward in Iraq? You can pick your favorite plan in the poll on the right. Is division the only answer? Can we call it a quagmire yet? Who should pick up the pieces? Leave your comments below.
  
  
  Related Materials from the Atlantic Community

• Gareth Stansfield says we must Accept A Divided Iraq
• John Hulsman on Democracy Building: How The US Could Learn From Lawrence of Arabia
• Thomas Speckmann on Why America Wants to Iraqize Afghanistan
  
  
  

  Prepared by Casey Butterfield , Niklas Keller , William Nuland , Joerg Wolf