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July 18, 2008 |  3 comments |  Print | E-Mail Your Opinion  

Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev

Is the US Really Better Off With Sarkozy?

Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: Despite the proclaimed cooperative approach, Franco-American tensions could grow bigger than under Chirac. Sarkozy’s Euro-Atlantic, yet independent, foreign policy moves could well be at odds with the next US president’s understanding of multilateralism.

On its face, the question seems absurd. The French President has called for Paris' return into the integrated command structure of the Atlantic Alliance, and Sarkozy shares with his counterparts across the Atlantic a common assessment of the threats emerging from the so-called "arc of crisis", including the challenge posed by Islamist terrorism to Western security. Sarkozy seems determined to challenge the two most commonly-held stereotypes of France in Washington: that Paris is content to be a "free-rider" allowing the United States to bear most of the burdens for ensuring the peace and prosperity of the Atlantic Community, and that France seeks to be a "spoiler", constantly looking for ways to assert its independence vis-à-vis Washington by "cozying up" to America's opponents and rivals.

But while many here in Washington have welcomed the rhetorical shift, the ramifications of a closer Franco-American partnership in the service of renovating the trans-Atlantic relationship don't appear to have been thought through. It was easier to dismiss French (and by extension, continental European) concerns when Americans thought that France did not share American goals and aspirations.

What happens, however, when you have a French president who proclaims his solidarity with the United States and puts forward new international initiatives not in order to oppose the United States but to, in his opinion, enhance the security of the Western world?

Take Sarkozy's stance on NATO. What does it mean, for instance, when Sarkozy advocates a full return of France to NATO but his defense "White Paper" maintains that Paris should retain both "full freedom of assessment" and "permanent freedom of decision"? This doesn't sound like a formula for automatic acquiescence to the US position. It so happens that at present there is a convergence in perspectives between Washington and Paris on the challenge posed by Iran's efforts to pursue its nuclear program as well as the threat posed by Iran's ballistic missiles-but there is no guarantee that this will continue or that the Franco-American symmetry on this issue will extend to other matters.

Indeed, I detect a certain degree of concern here with Sarkozy's willingness to pursue his own course of action, whether in terms of how the Euro-Atlantic community should deal with a resurgent Russia or his efforts on behalf of promoting peace and prosperity in the greater Mediterranean region. Indeed, the reaction from the State Department when asked to comment on the "Union of the Mediterranean" summit this past Monday is quite telling: "We don't have an observer there. We don't have a place at the table. But I think generally, it's an effort that we can, at the least, be supportive of." Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Some have argued that Sarkozy's preference for using economic engagement to try and affect the behavior of states, rather than relying on sanctions to change regimes marks a major point of divergence with both Republicans and Democrats here, especially when it comes to the Middle East. His willingness to welcome Libyan leader Muamar Qaddafi and Syrian president Bashar Asad raised eyebrows here-especially when it seemed that Paris prefers to move ahead with concrete projects dealing with energy and the environment instead of pressing harder for domestic political reforms.

But I am concerned about a more fundamental problem-the willingness of Washington to share power in a more equal fashion with its European partners. Sarkozy is often invoked by both US presidential candidates as an example of the multilateralism they hope to restore to American foreign policy-a key partner for US efforts. But the real test is whether a McCain or Obama administration would be as prepared to sign off or support a major Sarkozy initiative that was not "made in the USA" or where the United States did not have a "seat at the table"-as in the case of the Mediterranean effort.

In the past several years, we have assumed tensions in the trans-Atlantic relationship occurred because of divergence. What happens, however, if we are unable to define the terms of cooperation?

How Nicolas Sarkozy engages with his new American counterpart may become a key litmus test.

Nikolas Gvosdev, the outgoing editor of The National Interest, is joining the faculty of the US Naval War College. The views expressed here are his own.

Related materials from the Atlantic Community:

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Marek  Swierczynski

July 19, 2008

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The question in the title may also be reversed: is Sarkozy or the EU - if Sarko is to somehow embody the whole Bloc - happy with the next US president, and with which one of the McCain/Obama alternative is it happier with? The Author is quite right to point out the MedUnion as one of the examples in which the US and the EU may not come together. As it seems now, Obama is not interested - he wants a pull-back from Iraq and appeasment of Iran with multilateral approach rather than a confrontation. McCain speaks more like Bushism, but does he want to become another President of War? That may bury the Republicans for ages. With the MedUnion the EU speaks more in Obama's language, that's clear, but Obama is not yet there in the White House and may not be there eventually (though he's the favourite, I admit). If this happens, ie. Obama is in the White House, the EU could get foot in the Middle East, and that's what the EU hopes for n my view. If McCain wins, the struggle will go on. In the worst scenario, the US will get deeper in the Middle Eastern mud than before. But in the long term, we can assume that geopolitics puts geography first, if we like it or not, so the EU is naturally more designed to play a key role in the Middle East than the US. Currently, it's economy that prevails and therefore the US dependence of oil makes puts it in a driver's seat. Notably, the oil crisis and climate change issue, could make the Middle East less important in say 50 years or so. From that perspective, France should not be bothered, as it has its own power sources (nuclear). That shows what the MedUnion really is: another stage in the battle for supremacy - appeasment of the radical movements in the Middle East is also a cost of that. I wonder what the next US president will do - challange the EU's initiative or let it do the job - and what results will the job really produce, because if taken seriously, it would require enormous financial and political effort. The EU has proven it is not ready for such a major task now.
Tags: | EU | US | Obama | McCain | MedUnion |
 
Unregistered User

July 22, 2008

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Well, nothing to worry about : Sarko just tells the people what they want to hear.
As it is a world of appearances, seems that the new political corrrectness discouse is sufficient. to appease the tensions.

Now, Sarko inherited an arab policiy initiated by De Gaulle 60 years ago ; so he can't get rid of it, otherwise that would mean a big loss as employment term ; his major interest is the social peace in France.

Therefore, no changement in France agendas, businesses !

As Sarko is also a "megalo", if he could get his name in history through the Mediterraneen union, then it's all bonus for him. Though I don't see this happening soon ; too many complicated conflicts have to be solved.

Nato, vs EU army, depends on the circonstances, anyway he wouldn't argue for one solution more than the other : France can't afford both, or even can't afford an individual army being modern and performant, that is why he opportunistly opted for Nato.

Sarko is, first, an opportunist, second, an economist, not a politician with convictions.

and he likes to parade in the medias with his beautiful wife that makes go to hell a few foreign leaders , he is quite happy of the effect.

So, if he wants to carry on this "happy" agenda, he just has to follow the predecessors' prints.

Obama or whatever other US leader, I am sure he'll manage the open relations while he'll pursue his EU6Mediterranean adventure.
 
Unregistered User

July 22, 2008

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ok, the previous post was from me
 

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