In weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war. We have arrived at a watershed moment in the West's post-Cold War relations with Russia.
Exactly what happened in South Ossetia last week is unclear. Each side will argue its own version. But we know, without doubt, that Georgia was responding to repeated provocative attacks by South Ossetian separatists controlled and funded by Moscow. This is a not a war Georgia wanted; it believed that it was slowly gaining ground in South Ossetia through a strategy of soft power.
Whatever mistakes Tbilisi has made, they cannot justify Russia's actions. Moscow has invaded a neighbor, an illegal act of aggression that violates the U.N. Charter and fundamental principles of cooperation and security in Europe. Beginning a well-planned war (including cyber-warfare) as the Olympics were opening violates the ancient tradition of a truce to conflict during the Games. And Russia's willingness to create a war zone 25 miles from the Black Sea city of Sochi, where it is to host the Winter Games in 2014, hardly demonstrates its commitment to Olympic ideals. In contrast, Moscow's timing suggests that Putin seeks to overthrow Saakashvili well ahead of our elections, and thus avoid beginning relations with the next president on an overtly confrontational note.
Russia's goal is not simply, as it claims, restoring the status quo in South Ossetia. It wants regime change in Georgia. It has opened a second front in the other disputed Georgian territory, Abkhazia, just south of Sochi. But its greatest goal is to replace Saakashvili -- a man Vladimir Putin despises -- with a president who would be more subject to Moscow's influence. As Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt pointed out Saturday, Moscow's rationale for invading has parallels to the darkest chapters of Europe's history. Having issued passports to tens of thousands of Abkhazians and South Ossetians, Moscow now claims it must intervene to protect them -- a tactic reminiscent of one used by Nazi Germany at the start of World War II.
Moscow seeks to roll back democratic breakthroughs on its borders, to destroy any chance of further NATO or E.U. enlargement and to reestablish a sphere of hegemony over its neighbors. By trying to destroy a democratic, pro-Western Georgia, Moscow is sending a message that, in its part of the world, being close to Washington and the West does not pay.
This moment could well mark the end of an
era in Europe during which realpolitik and spheres of influence were supposed
to be replaced by new cooperative norms and a country's right to choose its own
path. Hopes for a more liberal Russia under President Dmitry Medvedev will need
to be reexamined. His justification for this invasion reads more like Brezhnev
than Gorbachev. While no one wants a return to Cold War-style confrontation,
Moscow's behavior poses a direct challenge to European and international order.
What can we do? First, Georgia deserves our
solidarity and support. (Georgia has supported us; its more than 2,000 troops
are the third-largest contingent in Iraq -- understandably those troops are
being recalled.) We must get the fighting stopped and preserve Georgia's
territorial integrity within its current international border. As soon as
hostilities cease, there should be a major, coordinated transatlantic effort to
help Tbilisi rebuild and recover.
Second, we should not pretend that Russia
is a neutral peacekeeper in conflicts on its borders. Russia is part of the
problem, not the solution. For too long, Moscow has used existing international
mandates to pursue neo-imperial policies. We must disavow these mandates and
insist on truly neutral international forces, under the United Nations, to
monitor a future cease-fire and to mediate.
Third, we need to counter Russian pressure
on its neighbors, especially Ukraine -- most likely the next target in Moscow's
efforts to create a new sphere of hegemony. The United States and the European
Union must be clear that Ukraine and Georgia will not be condemned to some kind
of gray zone.
Finally, the United States and the European
Union must make clear that this kind of aggression will affect our relations
and Russia's standing in the West. While Western military intervention in
Georgia is out of the question -- and no one wants a 21st-century version of
the Cold War -- Moscow's actions cannot be ignored. There is a vast array of
political, economic and other areas in which Russia's role and standing will
have to be reexamined. Moscow must also be put on notice that its own prestige
project -- the Sochi Olympics -- will be affected by its behavior.
Weak Western diplomacy and lack of transatlantic unity failed to prevent an avoidable war. Only strong transatlantic unity can stop this war and begin to repair the immense damage done. Otherwise, we can add one more issue to the growing list of this administration's foreign policy failures.
Ronald D. Asmus is executive director of the Brussels-based Transatlantic Center of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a member of the advisory board of the Atlantic Initiative. He was a deputy assistant secretary of state in the Clinton administration. Richard Holbrooke, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in the Clinton administration, writes a monthly column for The Post.
This article first appeared in The Washington Post on August 11th and is republished here with Dr. Asmus' kind permission.
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: The Transatlantic Divide Over the Caucasus Conflict
- Stefan Wolff: What to Expect from the Georgia-Russia Crisis
- Tamuna Kekenadze: Report from Tbilisi: Georgia Under Full Attack
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August 13, 2008
valentine akishkin
There is too much overstatement in your insisting that “nothing” has been done to “strengthen” the so called transatlantic cooperation. Enormous efforts, though lacking care of consequences, have been made by the Bush administration to increase its influence on European affairs. Europe’s poorly united ranks have hardly offered any notable rebuff to the imprudence of US foreign policy. The best the most influential member states can do is to be temperate and reverently polite to ideas that in no way fall in accord to how these countries apprehend their own interests, while having to endure shortsighted “initiatives” of overassertive junior members. Such is the construction of the EU today. There is really no need to increase US influence on the EU as the rifts in the EU are wide enough to snuggly accommodate the most retarded and inapprehensive of US computations.
The recent rally in Tbilisi that was held after Russian troops freed South Ossetia, attended by leaders of the Baltic countries, Poland and the Ukraine, is a disgraceful and incomprehensible manifestation of vulgarism after the massacre of over 1600 civilians in Tskhinvali, days before. This unity of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland miss two indispensable members – Georgia and the Ukraine to make this Trojan alliance feel itself comfortable in the cozy shelter of the EU, while deceitfully plying for the interests of the US.
Overwhelming, copious efforts and material resources were employed to arm and train the military forces of Georgia with the US standing at the head of bids. Who would dare say that the US was not involved? It is becoming increasing more and more difficult to persuade the public opinion into believing that the strategic planning of the South Ossetian “Blitzkrieg” was not thoroughly supervised by the Bush administration, bearing in mind that the number of US military “foremen” in Georgia, supervising the operation, branded as “Clear Field”, numbered 127. This “clearing up field operation” plotted, and performed with such extreme violence and vehemence is a frightening and shameless example of how far a model “democracy” which America so gratefully bestows itself can go to assure its interests covering up all its miserable and deplorable crimes with the most “credible” justifications. The above article of Richard Holbrooke and Ronald D. Asmus is nothing other than the truth turned inside out. All this crap about Russia violating UN laws is absolute pretence. If the Honourable Mr. Holbrooke knows of any UN laws that Russia violated should he be so kind to name them. Whereas the slaughter of 1600 (the count has not yet been completed and is estimated as 2000 ) innocent civilians; women, children and aged people is without any doubt a violation of laws and a grievous criminal offence, which has a name - genocide. I should remind you that Sadam Hussein was hanged for similar offences. The “cyber war” mentioned herein which in actual fact was an effort of a Russia hacker who managed to successfully post a number of photos of Hitler and Saakashvili on a Georgian site sounds somewhat aggrandized and is to lean to be classified as warfare.
The reason why Mr. Holbrooke still has a chance to wangle and manipulate facts is because the western media has no direct information coming from South Ossetia and all that reaches their ears is sieved through propaganda. The only American journalist in South Ossetia was killed in the first minutes of fire opened by Georgian rocket units; the second was a Turkish correspondent who was luckier as he was only wounded and transported out of Tskhinvali by Russian soldiers.
The US has just refused to hold a combined session of NATO – RUSSIA to discuss South Ossetia. Obviously the evidence that the Russian side has at hand is undeniable and can seriously undermine US credibility so plausibly supported by the above adherents.