How the ruling troika of the president, prime minister, and army chief resolve these issues will indicate the path of political development in Pakistan in the next fateful year. Each faces major hurdles. President Asif Ali Zardari can rightly take credit for cooperating with the US in its drone attacks on targets in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. But will he do so publicly? And risk further depleting his dwindling support among the masses? A Gallup Pakistan and Al Jazeera poll released last week indicates his popularity at only 11 percent inside Pakistan. Yet, persistent complaints about the drone attacks by Pakistani officials fuel public anger against the United States. Some 59 percent of those polled consider the United States to be Pakistan's major threat today, according to the same survey.
Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani appears to be increasingly asserting the position of his office and of parliament, as opposed to the de facto presidential system that Zardari inherited from former President Pervez Musharraf. But Gilani is not ready for prime time. At least not until he gets the nod from the army high command or unequivocal support from former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Sharif is holding back since he does not wish to upset the fledgling political system, allowing the army to step in again.
Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani continues to be the key to Pakistan's political future for the time being. His every conversation and public appearance, including his recent meeting with politico and legal wizard Aitzaz Ahsan, is read by avid political observers with all the fervor of Kremlinologists examining photos of Soviet Union May Day parades. Yet, he too faces a deadline of sorts: In November he completes the second year of his three-year term. During his final year, the jockeying will begin for his succession and deals may be offered to him or to others in the higher command by the current appointing authority, the president. History indicates that each time an army chief has been given an extension or "promoted" to chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in addition to being army chief, or a junior officer has been elevated to the highest rank in the army, the government has faced a coup d'etat in short order. Will Kayani buck history? The Gallup poll indicates only 8 percent support military rule. But army headquarters rarely follows polls. And only rarely do they follow the dictates of the United States.
The Army will be reluctant to open a front against the Afghan Taliban, who have been obtaining sanctuary inside FATA while avoiding conflict with the army. It will be equally reluctant to mount a large ground offensive in South Waziristan at a time when it is still mopping up in Swat and Malakand. The infighting among TTP factions may allow the army to use local rivals to neutralize the TTP to some extent.
But the death of Mehsud may open new fissures inside Pakistan, and between it and the United States, as Pakistani power politics take center stage once more. The scene is set for Grand Tactics yet again, leaving aside the strategic issues that Pakistan needs to be facing in the longer term.
One such issue is the economic challenge of a growing population, and exploding unemployment. The "youth dividend" that former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz used to talk about as benefitting Pakistan's economy may become the ball and chain, dragging down the country if the youth bulge of Pakistan's population cannot be educated nor given jobs. Pakistan's government desperately needs to address these issues, especially in central and Southern Punjab where the militant Sunni franchisees of Al Qaeda and the TTP have their base and from where they have been recruiting jihadist militants with ease. Otherwise, the wave of fanaticism will be more than Pakistan's overstretched army could handle.
What can the United States do? It must proceed to deliver rapidly and directly on its promised aid package and ensure that the benefits are spread throughout Pakistan. Aid aimed just at FATA would be seen as only serving US interests in Afghanistan. Nationwide distribution of US assistance will help the United States address the antagonism of the majority of Pakistanis. And it must seriously find a way to include Pakistan in the targeting decisions for the drone attacks. Or this will continue to be seen as America's war and drag down Pakistan's political leaders who side with the United States.
There are no easy choices. Nor any quick fixes. Pakistani politics will be in a state of turmoil in the months ahead, and come January the US will be in a new election cycle. Despite his desire to think long term, President Obama then may be forced to make short-term compromises, including perhaps a deviation from Pakistan's path toward democracy. The time to act is this summer, before the problems become too overwhelming and restrict the choices available to US and Pakistani leaders.
Shuja Nawaz is the director of the South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council. This was the inaugural essay in ForeignPolicy.com's Afpak Channel.
Related Materials from Atlantic-Community:
- Shazad Ali: Carrots for Pakistan, Sticks for the Gulf States
- Expert Survey: EU Must Bring Its Expertise to Pakistan
- Shaun Gregory: Pakistan: EU's Most Pressing Security Challenge
- Urs Schrade: Hard Road Ahead to Save Pakistan from Collaps
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August 28, 2009
Ilyas M. Mohsin, PPP, Platinum Contributor (296)
Taliban evoked few tears in Afghanistan although they were removed by US etc with massive help from the Northern war-lords etc. This was due to their harsh governance which they thought was in accordance with Islamic injunctions. However, US failed, generally, per se, to implement whatever sweet dreams were flaunted in Bonn Conference of 2002. As George W had his own game to start the “dishonest war” in Iraq, to quote Ted Kennedy, on the pretext of ‘WMD’, he forgot all about Kabul and assumed it to be another ‘Mission Accomplished’ like Iraq after the fall of Saddam. Today Obama is facing the murky fall-out of absurd policies of his predecessor who can claim to have done his duty, either by default or by design. George W’ best defense appears to be that he did not know what it was all about as till being sworn in to that august office he had seen only Mexico and that too as he was the Governor of Texas once. Now Senator Lindsey Graham, the Republican Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has to advise, “Let us not Rumsfeld Afghanistan” while conceding that the last Administration made many mistakes even in Iraq.
The ambivalence in US policy has raised many monsters like the indiscriminate use of fire-power with utter disregard for civilian deaths including women/children. Even the surrogate Karzai would protest on such occasions just to prove his own helplessness. The damage that was done by such ‘could n’t care less’ policy, prima facie, betrays contempt of the ‘occupied’ people and that the Pashtun does not forgive easily.
Despite his statesmanlike approach on issues, Obama appears to be fumbling in Afghanistan for the present. This may be due to the gigantic challenges he is facing at home including the tantrums of the lunatic fringe which appear to include Sarah Palin. History would record in due course that it was US’ ineffective focus which helped the re-emergence of Taliban. No wonder since 2006 they have been calling the shots. For the foreign forces, July was the deadliest month after the recent surge of troops but, so far, Aug augurs as overtaking the preceding month. What Kabul saw in the last 3 days before the elections must be very demoralizing for the foreign troops as well as Karzai. However, there are no easy solutions to this mess which has the potential of making Vietnam look like the successful attack on Grenada in Regan’ presidency. It is being aggravated by the credibility gap faced by the US even with her partners. As Russia, India, Iran and Pakistan, because of a long border etc and being US’ partner, have a finger in the Afghan pie, the situation gets even more complicated. However, while Pakistan is joining hands with the US to find a practical way-out, others have their own ambitious agendas. That makes it catch-22 all the way.
People in Pakistan are confused about Baitullah Mehsud. Previously it was thought that he was mied up with US forces. It was incredible that he could be seen giving TV interviews while bomb –blasts debited against his name were going on in Pakistan’ civil areas. Then nobody could touch him. Moreover the US has been applying all kinds of pressures on Pakistan including raising media-hype to induce Pakistan to vastly increase forces on the western border. Sometime back, Adm Mullen had said that Pakistan could be ‘taken over’ by Taliban in 15 days. Another funny slogan was that the Taliban were ’60 kms from Islamabad. Similar tales were being spun in Delhi, perhaps to scare the western audience. I remember getting a call from LATimes Bureau Chief in Delhi, Mark Magnier, in those dramatic days, who knew me because I write about Afghanistan in the local media, asking me if my country was nearing a ‘collapse.’ I told him that we are 170 million people and a nuclear power, let any neighbor dare attack us and then see the results. Admitting leadership’ confusion, I assured him that, despite glitches, Pakistan would clear the mess. He wrote a lively report with my quotes too. Thereafter a full-fledged operation started in Swat which has stabilized the situation. However, a bigger danger is the IDP. If their Rehabilitation is not done with absolute honesty, despite the prevailing complaints of mismanagement, we could be in a soup.
Pakistan is having poor Governance but the Govt is trying to do the needful. However, poor Governance appears to be the blight of the entire region including India despite her democracy. See the number of poor farmers committing suicide lately as well as the successful ‘insurgencies’ in the South/East which constitute a huge threat to her future. In addition, the rich-poor divide is haunting the conscientious Indians, like Arundhatti Roy, who are not deceived by slogans like ‘India shining’. In fact the discomfiture of BJP was brought about by such tall claims in the wake of widespread massacres of minorities i.e. Muslims/Christians in Gujarat and Eastern provinces. The high-castes, generally, ruling class in Delhi etc, benefiting from the aura of PANDIT Nehru, fail to register that they are sitting on a volcano, in addition to Kashmir, which calls for practically allowing the sub-human/lowest class Hindus to be given all rights enshrined in the constitution along-with other religious minorities.
The US and EU can urge the Pakistan Govt to focus on integrity/transparency of the process/individuals who are vested with power. Unless redundant political office-holders are dropped and the image of the people-in- power improves, Pakistan could face serious problems at home which Shuja suggested may be exploited by our friend ‘the US’. Apparently that may be like God answering the prayers of Taliban/ Al-Qaeda. As a Muslim/Pakistani I hope Obama’ US, whatever his domestic pressures, would not fall a prey to in the interest of the region/the Globe. Such a perverse development could make more people side with Taliban. About the consequences of such a dicey proposition the less said the better. Pakistan has to stay the course as straying, on any account, would harm the cause of regional/world peace. The costs for Pakistan though are mounting drastically.
ilyas mohsin