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The EU Constitution question will be Lisbon’s main priority during its presidency, should the June European Council produce a clear mandate for Portugal to open a new Intergovernmental Conference. Nevertheless, Portugal will have plenty of opportunities to demonstrate its political and diplomatic skills when it comes to leading the EU in the world.

External relations have a much stronger element of unpredictability than other areas, and the EU will face deteriorating situations beyond its control in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, and Somalia. These conflicts may come to overshadow any pre-set priorities for the Union in the second half of 2007. Lisbon will also inherit the need to negotiate a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Russia. As relations between the EU and Moscow seem to have hit rock-bottom, success in this area is unlikely. A tense showdown in the UN about the future status of Kosovo might further deepen the rift between Russia and the EU, while potentially splitting the EU itself, should Kosovo decide to unilaterally declare independence.

Portugal wants to shift the attention of the EU southward, giving a new impetus to the Euromed process and strengthening the southern dimension of the European Neighbourhood Policy. The Portuguese presidency will also organize the first-ever summit between the EU and Brazil, in addition to the important summits between the EU and partners such as Russia, China, India and Ukraine.

The United States needs Europe more than ever. Lisbon has set itself the ambitious goal of revisiting and strengthening the transatlantic alliance at a time when the current US administration is reaping the whirlwind - domestically and abroad - for its many mistakes, and Congress has awakened from its long slumber. But the EU, under the Portuguese presidency and beyond, will have a hard time getting the attention of a White House immersed in domestic affairs.

The flagship event of Portugal’s presidency will be the EU-Africa Summit in Lisbon in December, which should deepen the relationship between the European and African Unions. Expectations are high. Portugal wants this meeting to produce a joint EU-Africa Strategy about such common challenges as terrorism, migration, climate change, poverty and conflict resolution. The length and political sophistication of the outcome document, however, will not be an accurate measure of the EU’s willingness to help solve Africa’s problems. Neither will the smiles on the leaders’ faces during the traditional photo-ops. Only serious EU progress on the ground in countries like Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, the DRC and Zimbabwe can demonstrate that Europe, led by Portugal in the next six months, is willing and able to assume its responsibilities in Africa. This will have to include progress on poverty reduction and reaching the Millennium Development Goals.

Portugal is approaching most of the major foreign policy challenges the EU will face in the next six months without a strong national agenda. This is one of the virtues of EU presidencies by small and medium countries. Portugal will try to make the most of it.

Related Materials from the Atlantic Community:

• Jan Techau on The Vision Thing: Why Leadership Matters in Europe
• European Policy Centre, The ENP Three Years On: Where From - and Where Next?
• Andrew C. Revkin on the ‘loser-regions’ of Climate Change