Wed, May 5th 2010, 23:06

Arthur Zielinski

There is another way of looking at this issue. Modern navies are highly capital intensive, and any money spent on a navy is removed from the general military budget, and denied to the other branches. Other than providing an illusion to the Russian people of being a global power, and maintaining the viability of Russian navy yards, the Russian Navy in the Black Sea threatens no-one.

The Northern fleet, based in Archangel, and the Pacific fleet, in Vladivostok provide the naval part of the strategic deterrent. With global warming the Arctic region will be militarised, and may be the arena of future confrontations with Anglo-America. The Baltic has become a zone of stability, with no-one prepared to upset the status-quo, and with no forseeable strategic or military issues outstanding, although this may change with the future development of oilfields along the Baltic coast. With regard to the Black Sea, even the most committed Russophobe will have to admit that there is a legitimate Russian security issue here. It is close to a highly unstable Middle East, and adjacent to the problematic Caucasus region. Whatever the future composition of the Naval forces will be, they will be constrained by the stranglehold that Turkey, a NATO member, has over the Bosporus.

Keeping the Crimea is not the same as influencing events in Ukraine. It can be legitimately argued that the Russian-speaking, and leaning, East Bank of Ukraine is far more influential in representing Russian interests in that country than any lease on the Crimean peninsula, as also the widely-known issue of gas and oil deliveries to the country. Polish efforts notwithstanding, Ukraine is not ready to become an EU member, and there is a sufficient number of citizens hostile to membership of NATO to make that, at present, unlikely.

On a longer-term basis, and returning to the capital needs of a modern Navy, there are historical precedents to show that Naval expansion, and the resultant financial constraints on a Land force, actively promote civil society in a country. There are numerous examples, outstanding ones being the Netherlands, Britain, and the United States, The connections may not be obvious, and may seem a fantasy, but any demilitarisation of Russian society is to be applauded. However, Russia may, as usual, surprise us all.

Thu, Jun 3rd 2010, 11:53

Jeremy Wysakowski-Walters, University of Łódź, Gold Contributor (84)

While on the whole I think Stephen Blank has written a very good and informative article, I tend to agree with Arthur Zielinski that the Black Sea Fleet does not pose such a great threat as the author wishes to suggest. I can not under any circumstance envisage a naval attack on the Ukraine, nor for that matter was the navy used during the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict and so I'm not sure as to what type of threat Stephan is thinking off. As far as naval power goes, with the advent of land based anti-ship missiles being developed by China, perhaps the days of power projection are numbered in the traditional sense. If even the might US Navy will have to be more cautious with its carrier-groups in future then the Black Sea Fleet seems a futile endeavour.