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US Foreign Policy: Turmoil in the Middle East

The US president is leaving a difficult political legacy behind him in the Middle East. The civil war in Iraq is still smoldering, there are threats of complete destabilization in Lebanon and the Gaza strip, and Iran’s plans for weapons of mass destruction could spark a regional arms race. America’s influence in the region is dwindling, largely because of the Bush government’s good-versus-evil approach to all major problems there. This simplified outlook misjudges the real conflicts, hidden behind the often bloody local power struggles in the Middle East countries. If Bush’s successor wants to develop an effective solution to the problems in the Middle East they will have to take a more realistic and precise view of the conditions and events that are actually taking place there. Two developments in the Middle East need to be taken into account. Firstly the growing power struggle between the Sunnis and Shi’as, and secondly the dwindling capabilities of the United States in influencing events in the region. The Brookings Institute therefore calls for a return to constructive engagement. Because the United States no longer has an undisputed supremacy in the region, there is no other choice than to go back to a balance-of-power diplomacy, regardless of all the moral dilemmas and problems it is likely to bring.

The creation of a broad alliance of moderate forces in the Middle East is high on the agenda for holding Iran at bay. This may also prove to be an advantageous measure against Syria. Instead of attempting to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, the USA should use the differences in interests between Iran and Syria to their advantage. The Alawite regime in Damascus recognizes the risk coming from the Sunni populace that could become restive if the regime plants itself firmly on the Shi’a side of the fault line. The moderated strengths of the Arab world are likely only to be strengthened further if the United States makes sure that peace remains between Israel and Palestine.

The United States should also lead bilateral trade agreements with Tehran to encourage the Iranian government to give up its nuclear ambitions. An arms race in the Middle East should be prevented at all costs. To this affect, security arrangements need to be drawn up to guarantee, if necessary, protection under the US nuclear umbrella to allies of the US. Furthermore, the US government should initiate a long term reform agenda which makes a new social pact between the Arabic governments and their citizens possible and thereby helps to isolate radical powers. In less stable countries, the setting up of democratic institutions should be emphasized above the holding of democratic elections.

In sum, the biggest challenge for the new US president will be to replace the naivety and ideology of the Bush era with a foreign policy based on pragmatic realism which takes into account that America’s main Arab allies have different objectives to their own.

The summary above was prepared by Natasha Doff of the Atlantic Community editorial team from Back to Balancing in the Middle East. A New Strategy for Constructive Engagement, Brookings Institution, January 2008.

Related Articles on Atlantic Community:

• Victor D. Cha: Bush Bashers are Wrong About Asia
• Anatol Lieven: America Holds the Key to Mideast Peace
• Matt Dupuis and Jeb Koogler: Dealing With Iran: Deterrence Is Not Enough