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Open Think Tank Articles
Editorial Team: Elections and transfers of power look set to dominate world events in 2012. Will Chinese leadership adopt a more aggressive stance? Will Egypt develop into an Islamist regime? Here is a brief look at these and other events likely to shape the new year. Feel free to share any events you think will also be important.
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John Taylor: While the Jewish state remains the strongest military power in the Middle East, it is increasingly isolated in a region undergoing dramatic political change. Israel needs to adopt a policy of engagement and dialogue with its neighbors in order to safeguard its position in the region.
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Felix F. Seidler and Niklas Anzinger: The Arab uprisings have opened new avenues for change in Iran. To slow Tehran’s military and nuclear ambitions, Western leaders must find a resolution to the Syrian conflict, while activists should harness the social power of the internet to force the Iranian regime to reform.
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CGA at NYU Ethnic Conflicts Learning Community : Nonviolent movements have toppled autocrats from Serbia to Egypt, and these tactics could also work in Iran. Protestors should exploit internal government divisions and leverage their youth and the strength of women to bring down this oppressive regime.
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Reese Alan Neader: To establish a functioning democracy, those shaping the new political system in Egypt will have to engage and empower the working class. If the government does not provide its people with social services and defend their human rights, extremist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood could gain traction.
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Gillian Kennedy: The trial of Hosni Mubarak signals the end of an authoritarian era in the Middle East. For too long, the US and Europe acquiesced in fraudaulent elections and brutal political repression in the region. Now, they must engage with a new Arab polity to secure a real democratic transition.
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Karl-Heinz Kamp: For decades, NATO favored stability over freedom in the Arab world. Now, the Alliance should support its partner countries with expertise to make their armed forces more effective in a democratic environment, especially in human rights training, international law, defense planning and border security.
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Ana Isabel Alves: Today, millions of citizens in Egypt believe in a better future and are willing to die for it. We, Western citizens, cherish and support them - at least, in theory. But, are we really thinking about it? Do we provide effective support for democratisation?
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Sarah Redohl: In the wake of uprisings in North Africa, NATO may be forced to make a choice between much-needed reform or stable dictatorships. With a hefty aim to be the world guarantor of security by 2020, NATO will need to reconsider its newest partnerships, beyond the interest of its allies, and start guaranteeing actual security.
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Editorial Team: In response to the ongoing turmoil in Egypt, Atlantic Community published an article arguing that the West has nothing to fear from the Muslim Brotherhood getting into power in the country. The article stimulated an intense debate with more than 40 comments. Here are some of the main arguments. Let us know what you think on the matter!
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Ioan Mircea Paşcu: Nobody can predict what the ultimate outcome of uprisings across North Africa will be. Nevertheless, a coherent response to turmoil in the region is required from Europe. Failure to contain unrest could see revolts spreading southward which would further strain the resource balance in the global economy.
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Gillian Kennedy: The West’s political leaders must not be afraid to engage with the Muslim Brotherhood. They are not seeking an Iranian style theocracy, but rather a democratic system with conservative Islamic norms. The younger generation of Muslim Brothers is even open to dialogue with Israel. In no other country is there an Islamist movement so experienced with working with a coalition of broad based groups.
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Editorial Team: Revolution in Tunisia. Large scale protests in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen and now in Egypt, the heart of the Arab world. Experts are cautiously optimistic about political change. What’s your take? What should the West do now?
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Editorial Team: In his Cairo speech, US President Obama attempted to heal US relations with the Muslim world. But there is increasing controversy surrounding his outreach-focused approach to foreign relations with some commentators claiming that apologizing for past wrongs is dangerous and weakens the US.
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Bernhard Lucke: As a chilled peace process turned into hot war in December 2008, there was still no legitimate partner for an Israeli dialog among the Palestinians. The Hamas election victory had eliminated the last possibility for this. Thus, a three-state-solution of Israel-Egypt-Jordan should be enforced.
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Matthew Levitt: I argue against reaching out to Hamas. The more pressing questions are those of humanitarian assistance, reform of Fatah, and the rule of law in Gaza.
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Global Must Read Articles
Regardless of the outcome, a UN vote on Palestine will result in violence in the Middle East. ++ The US and Israel’s push to convince Security Council members to abstain from voting is a short-term solution for postponing conflict in the region. ++ Protests in Israel and Palestine over the UN vote could lead to another Arab-Israeli war. ++ Instead of voting, the Security Council should pass a
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The Arab Spring has significantly weakened the influence of militant jihadist groups and delegitimized the use of violence and terrorism to attain political goals. ++ Following the popular uprisings that led to the overthrow of several dictators in the region, many former terrorist organizations are making the transition towards becoming conventional non-violent political parties.++ A decade
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With Libya on the verge of ousting Gaddafi, the rebels cannot allow tribal divisions to tear their leadership apart. ++ To support a peaceful transition of power, the outside world should be prepared to send, “at the very least”, military and police advisers and perhaps “several thousand” troops to Libya. ++ This would be “costly and risky”, but far less so
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The Arab spring has slid into a long, hot summer. After toppling their autocratic regimes, Tunisia and Egypt have yet to show their movement toward democracy is sustainable, while the violent conflicts in Syria and Libya drag on. ++ Some fear Islamists could emerge triumphant from these messy conflicts. But a host of young, dynamic reform groups are also beginning to show a pulse. ++ These
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German enterprises doing business in countries where regimes do not respect basic human rights should start living up to the responsibility which that clout involves. ++ Instead of waiting for social unrest to explode in places like in Egypt or Tunisia, they should set examples by paying decent wages. ++ This would help them gain the loyalty of customers, who prefer buying “products with no
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Egyptian society is comprised of a wealthy ruling elite at the top, a small Islamic fundamentalist element at the bottom and in between, masses of unpoliticized ordinary citizens. ++ Despite the government’s recent decision to shut down the Internet, demonstrations continued unabated. ++ Notwithstanding recent hype about the impact of social media, “the uprising in Cairo is a very old-fashioned,
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The obviously fraudulent elections in Egypt, which resulted in 83% for Hosni Mubarak, give the country the appearance of a one-party state. ++ This idea makes “even those in power cringe.” ++ The elite had hoped that more secular parties would secure seats in the parliament to the detriment of the Islamists. ++ Although opposition candidate and former head of the IAEA, Mohammed El
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Though united in their efforts to reform Egypt, Mohammed ElBaradei and Mohammed Said al Katatni do make for odd comrades in Cairo’s political arena. ++ Mr. ElBaradei is a committed secular liberal, while his partner is the head of the Muslim Brotherhood bloc in parliament. ++ Not surprisingly, there are claims that “the alliance amounts to little more than a fig leaf to broaden the
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Egypt hopes to become Washington’s primary Middle Eastern partner following a visit to the US this weekend by President Hosni Mubarak. ++ The Bush regime served to undermine bilateral ties but Cairo could now be prepared to compromise. ++ “There is ‘a sense of ease’, says one diplomat, over the policy of non-interference the Obama administration is adopting
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The Obama administration’s sternness toward Israel seems over the top considering its friendliness towards Egypt. ++ Both countries receive some of the highest percentages of US Development Aid. ++ Israel “needs little reminder of the slights, both petty and large, that the American administration has inflicted.” ++ In contrast to predecessors, Obama and Clinton have failed to make foreign aid to
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As the US retreats from the Middle East, Iran has a sophisticated, multi-level strategy to step in and take control of the region. ++ Iran-controlled groups and “front” companies have been caught actively destabilising six nations - all of whom are experiencing economic and/or political crises and are close allies of the US. ++ Lebanon could succumb first as Iran is spending “massive amounts of
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The struggle between Egypt and Syria over their respective negotiations with Hamas demonstrate power politics in the Arab world for hegemony in the Middle East. ++ With Egypt stand western-leaning allies Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and behind Syria are Qatar, Yemen and Algeria as well as Iran, who supports Hamas and Hizbollah. ++ Meanwhile, the Quartet is unlikely to dismiss their criteria for
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Egyptian President Mubarak has made the first official state visit of Egypt to India in a quarter century. ++ Mubarak came with his Foreign Minister and his ministers of Trade and Communications. ++ “The two countries pledged to quadruple bilateral trade to $10 billion by 2010,” and promised to work together on issues of terrorism, climate change, the financial crisis, and food and energy
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Economically speaking,
Arab states have developed at a strikingly slower pace in the last 20 years
than most other regions in the world. This is particularly true for the Arab Mediterranean, including Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and
Morocco, which have failed to capitalize on their especially advantageous
geo-strategic position “at the crossroads of three continents, with
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Perhaps by electing Obama as president, pro-American reformers in the Middle East will no longer feel so alienated. ++ According to expat experiences in Egypt, locals are hoping for an Obama victory because of his ethnicity and Muslim background. ++ Such a groundbreaking turnaround, only seven years after 9/11, would be unthinkable in those Mideastern countries whose futures are buried in the
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Hunger Riots like in Egypt have potential to destabilize weak governments. Prices of all staple food have risen 80% in three years, and 33 countries are facing unrest because of the price rises. ++ The US, Europe, Japan and other rich countries will need to provide funds. ++ To prevent worsening of climate change agriculture industry needs to double its food production, using less water than
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Israel’s legitimate nuclear program is not a valuable excuse for Russia to jeopardize international security by supplying a reactor to Iran and by agreeing on nuclear cooperation with
Egypt. ++ The international community should strive to prevent unstable democracies from acquiring nuclear weapons, acknowledge that Iran is not just a threat to Israel but to the world, and hold Russia
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As Egypt declares its intentions to pursue nuclear energy, it joins other thirteen states in the Middle East with the same aim. Iran’s nuclear plans seem to be responsible for this troubling trend, writes Dan Murphy from the Christian Science Monitor.
While the group includes Libya, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, only Jordan and Egypt seem to have legitimate claims to nuclear power. Jordan possesses
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Since the US seems to have retreated momentarily from its promotion of democracy in the Arab world, Timothy Garton Ash sees an opportunity for broader European engagement in the region. Problems in Iraq have particularly slowed down the recent US push for rapid democratization in Egypt. The new EU-Egypt Action plan outlines an alternative strategy for cooperation within the framework of the
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Since the US seems to have retreated momentarily from its promotion of democracy in the Arab world, Timothy Garton Ash sees an opportunity for broader European engagement in the region. Problems in Iraq have particularly slowed down the recent US push for rapid democratization in Egypt. The new EU-Egypt Action plan outlines an alternative strategy for cooperation within the framework of the
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