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Open Think Tank Articles
Sascha Lohmann: The West must prevent pitfalls and seize the opportunities associated with the intricate cost-benefit calculations driving Iran‘s nuclear diplomacy. Taking Iran’s desire for recognition and independence into consideration will be indispensable for successful negotiations.
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Sascha Lohmann: A fear-based policy by the US and its allies toward Iran is not likely to solve the nuclear standoff peacefully any time soon. Instead, a strategy of engagement that takes the psychological predispositions of the actors seriously is the only way to achieve this goal.
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Keri Elise Majikes: The US can eliminate Iran’s incentives for developing nuclear technology without becoming militarily involved by creating an economic agreement that establishes Iran as a leader in renewable energy. Such an agreement would be less expensive than a military operation against Iran.
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John Taylor: While the Jewish state remains the strongest military power in the Middle East, it is increasingly isolated in a region undergoing dramatic political change. Israel needs to adopt a policy of engagement and dialogue with its neighbors in order to safeguard its position in the region.
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Angelina Harutyunyan: Although many efforts have been made by the international community to suspend Iran’s nuclear activities, their achievements continue. A more successful policy would remove all sanctions, and fully engage Iran in international and regional trade, thus requiring Iran to be more transparent and to act according to international legal trade rules.
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Nabi Sonboli: Iran and the transatlantic partners have many common interests which should be built upon: Peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as stability in the greater Middle East. The nuclear issue should be separated from these in order to build trust.
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Memo 27: The only way to overcome the deadlock on Iran’s nuclear program is to engage constructively with the existing regime. Progress will only be made when both sides admit their past failures and engage in genuine ‘concrete reciprocity’.
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Memo 26: The character of the Iranian State is such that rapprochement with the West is impossible. Therefore, a systematic policy of undermining the regime is the only way to stop the nuclear program and prevent a military confrontation.
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Editorial Team: From the 26th to the 29th of October, we focused on transatlantic policy concerning Iran’s nuclear program. As part of our student competition sponsored by the U.S. Mission to Germany, six short-listed articles were published and debated.
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Antonio Buttitta: Iran is the only country in the Middle East that can not be challenged by Western powers without risking a severe unbalancing of global economies or an all out decent into war - a prospect that would be ultimately unsuccessful for all involved. Instead, rapid diplomacy must lead to effective negotiations, based on a new scheme.
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Frank O'Donnell: On January 14, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists repositioned its ‘Doomsday Clock’ by only one minute, from five to six minutes to midnight. This incremental adjustment symbolizes the global uncertainty regarding the future of the nonproliferation regime.
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Oliver Schmidt: In assessing whether Iran intends to build nuclear weapons, it can be concluded that whilst no evidence or ‘smoking gun’ for an Iranian nuclear program can be found, the available clues and arguments strongly suggest that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons option.
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Global Must Read Articles
Israel will not attack Tehran conventionally for a number of reasons, including the potential reprisals of neighbouring countries, a divided domestic leadership and disapproval from Washington. ++ However, it is becoming clear that Israeli intelligence, in cooperation with its US counterparts, has made a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities redundant. ++ Operatives were responsible for
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The United States has spent millions on clandestine operations aimed at destabilizing Iran’s government and trying to sabotage its nuclear program. ++ The American use of covert actions and double agents in Iran has only hampered a long-term solution by reinforcing Iranian fears of the “Great Satan”. ++ If the US wants to safeguard its long-term objectives in the region, it will have to redraft
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“The deal struck Monday by Iran with Brazil and Turkey will do nothing to restrain Tehran’s nuclear program. It could, however, derail the Obama administration’s effort to focus international pressure on Iran and buy the regime more time to enrich uranium and defeat its domestic opposition.” In short the deal is a possible diplomatic coup for Iran. Tehran must be made to abandon its
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It is nearly impossible to predict what the future will hold for Iranian politics. Nevertheless, thinking through various conceivable scenarios does provide decision-makers with important cues as to possible future developments. Two variables are important in any assessment of plausible political developments in Iran: the strength of the regime and the potential for external conflicts, in
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China has replaced Russia at the UN Security Council as the one remaining obstacle to coercive sanctions on Iran’s military nuclear ambitions. ++ The possible Chinese veto finds a sound echo among the emerging countries. ++ Brazil reaffirms its support to Iran even in the darkest times of Iranian diplomacy while Turkey would very much enjoy a trouble-shooter status. ++ Positions from Nigeria, the
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Obama should continue to make clear that the United States stands with those seeking peaceful and democratic reform in Iran. ++ Although street demonstrations are fewer, Iran’s political crisis appears to be intensifying. ++ “Several of the Islamic Republic’s most senior leaders openly disputed the attempt by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, to end debate about last month’s
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President Obama must decide whether to wait until after the upcoming elections before engaging in dialogue with Iran. ++ Further development of the Iranian nuclear program may speed up talks. ++ Constant and continual dialogue may be the best step forward for both parties. ++ In order to achieve long term success, a communication channel needs to be established to exchange confidential
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Last week, Medvedev threatened to station missiles near Poland if the US administration continued its plans to install a missile defense system there and in the Czech Republic. ++ President-elect Obama has to improve US-Russian relations. ++ He should be “ready to cancel deployment of the faulty missile defense system in Central Europe [and] end the US push for imminent NATO expansion into
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