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Open Think Tank Articles
Anna Wojnilko: Changing economic and political realities are forcing the G8 to rethink its goals, mandate, and membership. The debate on the shape of a potential G8 reform divides the political world. Should the G8 be enlarged to include new major international players or contracted to ensure effectiveness? We invite you to vote.
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Memo 7: The members of the Atlantic Community believe that Ukraine belongs to Europe. Ukraine needs to be integrated into Western alliances without undermining Western-Russian relations.
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Joerg Beige & Arianna de Mario: There are still cases of politically motivated trials that lack basic lawful principles in Russia. We should not be afraid to appear ‘russophobic’ and remind the Russian authorities that they are obliged to comply with international law standards.
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: NATO’s nuclear posture is dated and needs to be reconsidered during next year’s review. If NATO withdraws sub-strategic nuclear weapons from Europe it can pursue a leverage strategy to persuade Russia to also eliminate its tactical nuclear weapons.
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Hall Gardner: NATO’s Bucharest Summit in April 2008 did not fully address the question of how to create a viable system of security for the volatile region of eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. As eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Caucasus are all riddled with secessionist and irredentist movements since Soviet collapse, it will require concerted US, EU, and Russian attention if a major crisis is to be averted.
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Heinrich Bonnenberg: To Russia, its current western border is a border that stands for loss and dishonor. This border is an open, bleeding wound on the Russian body. The security pact that the Russian president recently presented in Berlin could be helpful in overcoming historical grievances and bringing Western Europe and Russia closer together.
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Ryan R. Miller: The belief Russia will help the West ease tensions with Iran is wishful thinking. A compliant Iran would be Gazprom’s biggest competitor. Washington should offer the Mullahs EU energy markets in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue and thus reduce European dependence on Russian energy.
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Hall Gardner: A move towards Ukrainian NATO membership would strain relations with Russia and have serious consequences. In the short-term, Ukraine should remain “neutral”, while the EU introduces new, and expands existing confidence building economic and political areas of cooperation with Kiev and Moscow. In the long-term, Europe should seek to develop a confederal relationship with both Ukraine and Russia.
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Jens F. Laurson and George A. Pieler: NATO is trying to expand its military wing to more countries, which used to be “the enemy,” in its effort to secure its future. However, Europe’s reliance on imported oil should be considered before alienating exporters like Russia in the attempt of reinventing NATO’s aging alliance.
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Michael T. Klare: When the Cold War ended, it was generally assumed that the US would henceforth enjoy unchallenged preponderance. But today, military superiority no longer constitutes the decisive determinant of global paramountcy: energy has acquired unexpectedly vast significance.
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Memo 5: Members of the Atlantic Community are convinced that NATO needs to redefine its future role and relationship with Russia. Fundamental change, however, is unlikely to occur in the near future and the NATO-Russian relationship may worsen.
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Andreas Umland: US “anti-Russian” rhetoric is not that particular. One can hear similar voices in both Western and Eastern Europe. In the unlikely case that Russia becomes a truly democratic country, much of what Andrei Tsygankov laments in his recent article in “The Moscow Times” would simply disappear.
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Richard G. Lugar: We must forge a more productive relationship with Russia. The absence of a collective energy security strategy and the lack of supply diversification will lead to greater fragmentation among European nations and across the Atlantic.
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Andrei Tsygankov: The US presidential candidates are increasingly playing the Russophobia card in their campaigns. In addressing Russia, Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton have resorted to insulting President Vladimir Putin as a KGB spy who has no soul. Russophobia is truly back into fashion, as Senator Joseph Biden admitted last week.
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Andreas Umland: The rise of Dmitry Medvedev will mobilize the large anti-Western constituency in various sectors of the Russian elite. We may soon observe the emergence of another, different “tower” in the Russian state apparatus around which Moscow’s various nationalist politicians and publicists will unite.
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Andreas Umland: Sooner or later it is to be expected that Medvedev’s deeper political beliefs – his apparently liberal and democratic views – will come to the fore.
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Marek Swierczynski: Greece and Russia signed an agreement to build the southern branch of the South Stream natural gas pipeline. President Putin’s last victory hardens Gazprom’s grip on Europe and makes any energy diversification projects more difficult. Unless the EU looks at the map and acts.
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Andreas Umland: A conspirological form of anti-Americanism has become Russia’s new foreign policy doctrine. Paradoxically, the Russian elite, at the same time, wants to build closer relations with the US’s major partner in continental Europe - Germany.
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David Francis: Why is everyone outside of Germany worried about Nord Stream, while people in Germany seem okay with it? By looking at the United States, it’s apparent that it’s easier to ignore reliance on imported energy than it is to confront the problem.
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Daniel Korski & Richard Gowan: Away from the limelight and with other world events getting the media’s attention, the situation in Kosovo has been getting worse and worse. And it all started so well with the EU managing to get a consensus for its ESDP mission and two-thirds of EU states backing the province’s independence.
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Marek Swierczynski: Brazil and Russia want to build fighter jets and rockets under the new agreement signed last week. The potential “superpower of the South” may be on its way out of the western camp and can speed up the creation of the world’s new order. Bad news.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: Mistakes have been made on both the Russian and the Western sides. Russia should now be approached as an equal rather than looked down upon or scolded for non-democratic ways.
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Andreas Umland: Don’t overestimate Berlin’s statements concerning Russian interests in the former USSR
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Andreas Goldthau: The extent to which Russia’s resources are sustaining the country’s growth and influencing its foreign policy tends to be overstated. Having to adapt to domestic and geopolitical circumstances, and the rules of the global market considerably restricts the Kremlin’s room for maneuver.
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Stanley R. Sloan: Besides agreeing on devoting more military and non-military resources to the mission in Afghanistan, NATO leaders at the Bucharest Summit should start drafting a new strategic concept and a contemporary Atlantic Charter for the new American administration to tackle in 2009.
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Sascha Müller-Kraenner: The EU and the US have the responsibility as well as the financial and technological means to address the climate challenge. Yet their approach needs to be internationally orientated so that it also offers a platform to the new assertive voices of China, India, Russia and others.
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Maximilian Müngersdorff: Resource-based growth poses a risk to the broader economy. With oil prices hitting record highs, Russia, the world’s largest fossil-fuel exporter, has seen rapid growth. The question is, whether this growth is used to transform Russia into a diversified and sustainable economy.
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Ryan R. Miller: Possible Polish-Iranian energy cooperation puts U.S. policy makers between a rock and a hard place, as America finds itself committed both to isolating the Islamic Republic and supporting Polish efforts to outflank Russia’s Gazprom.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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Wess Mitchell: I outline recent developments between the United States and Poland regarding the US missile defense program. Relations between Poland and Russia are likely to deteriorate and Tusk may have compromised himself by acting so decisively this early in his term.
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Memo 4: Members of the Atlantic Community are mostly optimistic about the future of Kosovo and conflict resolution in the Western Balkans. The EU has a key role in this region and policy is in the right track, but, of course, big challenges still lie ahead.
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Dr. Dimitrios Argirakos: Angela Merkel subordinates German international relations to US geopolitical objectives, something that Bismarck and Adenauer would not understand.
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Alexander Bernhard Bitter: Missile defense for Europe is coterminous with NATO’s mission. The European policy of waiting for a new US administration is flawed, as the financial burden of the endeavor could shift heavily toward Europe.
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Alexandros Petersen: I conclude that Putin’s United Russia administration has framed Sunday’s polls as a referendum on his popularity, ensuring extra support for the party. For all of the president’s finagling, however, the only certainty is that his means of retaining power in Russia next year will confound the pundits’ predictions.
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Andreas Beckmann: The general public does not understand the advantages of a US ground-based missile defense system in Europe. Western politicians should be wary of making confusing public statements that could facilitate Russian and Iranian efforts to divide the Alliance.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: We need a new philosophy of deterrence against Iran. A tough containment policy, including Russia, and strong defense of Israel could bring about a changed security architecture in the Middle East that might finally include Tehran.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: The US course of action on statehood for Kosovo will be a major test for the newly fortified transatlantic relationship.
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Alexandros Petersen: Russia’s recent Cold War-esque behavior is a wake-up call for the transatlantic alliance to overcome internal divisions and strengthen energy routes from the Caspian and Central Asia.
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James Andrew Lewis: I use the assault on Estonian computers to explain the difference between real terror and cyber mischief. Governments must take practical steps to minimize disruption in case of an attack.
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Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger: of the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board interviews President George W. Bush just prior to the G8 Summit. The President speaks on US-Russia relations, domestic energy policy, and the criticism he has received from around the world.
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Alexander Rahr: The EU and Russia need more direct and frequent communication to avoid future conflict. Putin’s speech has set off a vicious circle: as Russia increasingly positions itself as an aggressor, the United States and Europe find further reason to ostracize Moscow. The worst the West could do would be to write off Russia in a return to containment policy.
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Günter Nooke: I demand that the EU use stronger language towards Russia as regards the persistent erosion of human rights in the country. The unresolved politically motivated murders, discrimination of minorities and excessive police violence against peaceful protesters in the country cannot go unmentioned at today’s EU-Russia summit.
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Alexander Graf Lambsdorff: I find that Russia must be encouraged to participate in European democracy. The EU and US must realize that interdependence with Russia can offer benefits beyond status quo diplomacy.
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Eckart von Klaeden: Europe will soon be vulnerable to medium-range ballistic missiles. The time to act is now. Europe, Germany and NATO must agree on an anti-missile shield to protect against threats from Iran and others.
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Wess Mitchell: I recommend a security agreement with Prague now to set precedent for missile defense negotiations with other NATO members later, starting with Poland. Bilateral agreements with Eastern European countries would reinforce Washington’s strategic commitment to the region and would not undermine NATO in the least.
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Global Must Read Articles
With a military budget larger than the rest of the world’s combined, the US is still undeniably world’s greatest superpower. ++ However, there are clear signs that its empire is overreaching itself and the whole system starting to crack. ++ Russia is the only state with a nuclear weapons arsenal that equals America’s. ++ Russia’s political and military leaders should pay attention to
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The prospect of war between Georgia and Russia is increasingly realistic. ++ We must stand up for Georgia and prevent the war as it could lead to the breakdown of Russia’s relations with the West and destabilize a territory so crucial for Western
energy supplies. ++ Using the so-called “frozen conflict” in Georgia’s breakaway province Abkhazia as an excuse, Russia is trying to subdue Tbilisi,
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It seems that the importance of liberty and democracy in Russia is inversely correlated to the prices of oil and gas. ++ While denouncing Mugabe, Council of Europe secretary-general recently expressed his admiration for Putin and Medvedev, whose hold on power is similarly counterfeit. ++ The European fantasy appears to be that oil revenue and designer boutiques will magically turn Russia into a
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The elusive perception of the West as a threat is still alive in Russia. ++ But Moscow’s self-destructive confrontation with the West and its fantasy of allying with China can be halted if Ukrainian europeanization succeeds. ++ Ukraine is dangerous, not for Russia’s security but for Putin’s model of state. ++ If Ukraine succeeds in its European choice, it can settle the old Russian question
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Since the Cold War, US foreign policy has struggled to find a “main enemy,” thereby defining its focus. ++ Global politics, however, have returned to a status quo, in which a broad range of problems, with long-term resilience and requiring non-ideological responses, will be better served with America’s continuing strategic advantage on most fronts. ++ On a non-governmental
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On the surface, the strategic Sino-Russian relationship seems at an apex. ++ In reality, however, relations between the two leading Eurasian powers are being weakened by a stalemate in military sales, disputes over energy prices, and a general decline in trade due to Russia’s wavering manufacturing capacity. ++ China’s trade with Russia in 2007 accounted for 2 percent of China’s global trade
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July 1 marked the 40th anniversary of the NPT which provided an opportunity to reexamine its current and future role. ++ Nuclear nonproliferation movement is at a crossroads. ++ It is crucial that the next US president calls for deep cuts in nuclear weapons around the world at the start of his administration in January 2009. ++ He should also appoint a nonproliferation “czar” to help him shape
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Senator McCain’s call for a “League of Democracies” would be a danger rather than an aid to world peace. ++ With both Russia and China excluded, the league would be unable to combat the most pressing global matters: terrorism, climate change, and nuclear proliferation. ++ McCain’s plan could even create a Cold War-like tension between democratic and autocratic states. ++ The League of Democracies
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The USA is not performing the transition to conventional weapons, which was meant to lessen the country’s dependence on nuclear weapons for defense. ++ US politicians and media are using the claim that Russia is boosting its military spending to justify the maintenance of the American nuclear arsenal. ++ Yet, even Russian generals are talking about the “weakness of Russia’s nuclear
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In the 80s Ronald Reagan warned Europe about becoming dependent on Russian energy. ++ With Gazprom supplying over 40 percent of Germany’s natural gas, this prediction is becoming a reality. ++ A question for the future, is whether the EU’s energy liberalization policy - unbundling the wholesale and retail businesses in gas and electricity- will either challenge or assist the
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Russia’s main challenge is the modernization of its economy, politics, and society. ++ President Medvedev has singled out the rule of law as a particularly significant aspect of the reforms. ++ The EU should support these reform efforts, not by setting various conditions or by lecturing, but by engaging Russia in a comprehensive dialogue. ++ In the future, an advanced Russian-European partnership
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Whatever Putin and Medvedev said, there is no doubt that the transfer of power towards Moscow’s White House has begun. ++ The head of the presidential administration has called for a change to the Constitution, with the purpose of strengthening the role of the government. ++
According to his proposal, the number of subjects with the right to introduce bills in the Duma should be reduced. ++ If
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Some may be tempted to ignore Bush during his final tour of Europe, a US President on his way out does not need the same attention as one on his way in. ++ Bush’s presidency, however, has marked an epoch-making shift: the emphasis of US diplomacy moved away from stability concerns and toward the spread democratic freedom; an emphasis that is strengthening the Atlantic
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The vital partnership of the EU and the US should be continued through the end of Bush’s term. ++ Issues such as the economy, Iran, Iraq, and climate change require the joint policy of financial and executive bodies. ++ The West also needs to display unity and determination in the face of Medvedev’s Russia, which has retained the nationalist tones and the threatening energy policy of the Putin
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Russia is changing. ++ The new Russian president’s speeches in Berlin about the importance of free press, of a broad middle class, and of the acknowledgement of mistakes made during the Prague spring are more than astonishing. ++ Although his first foreign visit was to China, Medvedev stressed that Europe would remain Russia’s top foreign policy priority. ++ He pointed out that Russia wants to
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Since economic sanctions are the best means to cause unrest among the Iranian population, they are also the most effective tool to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ++ However, Russia needs to be on board. ++ The Western offer to the Kremlin should be impossible to refuse, and must compensate for what Russia currently gains by dealing with Iran. ++ Russia will join the boycott if the
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Western calls for restraint are ineffective as tensions rise in Georgia over Abkhazia, the region where Russia supports separatist aspirations that threaten Georgia’s national unity. ++ “Moscow seems determined to provoke Tbilisi to take military action that would discredit Georgia in western eyes.” ++ Besides constraining Russia with the threat of diplomatic consequences, the US/EU should
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Cooperation between Russia and the US on issues of nonproliferation is vital for America’s national security. ++ The agreement now before the US Congress would help the US and Russia create an international fuel bank that could provide nuclear-fuel services internationally and thus undercut countries who falsely claim to be perusing uranium enrichment for civilian purposes. ++ While Russia should
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Sparked by a recent Russian territory claim at the North Pole, a meeting has been called this week in Greenland over the future of the Arctic. ++ In the midst of a decade old rivalry, the US, Canada, Russia, Norway and Denmark have a huge stake in future development as the region may contain up to a quarter of the earth’s natural resources. ++ Although each nation is committed to a peaceful
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The growing popularity of John McCain’s League of Democracies among US voters of both parties should raise concern. ++ In a post-American world peace and prosperity especially require Chinese and Russian cooperation. ++ Democracies would be no less paralysed into inaction than the UN and would further lack international legitimacy for intervention. ++ It is by reforming the
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In a series of recent talks, poignantly described as “bad dates,” Russian President Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao were divided on issues concerning missile defense and energy resources. ++ Ready to elide almost all other bilateral concerns, China’s need to procure oil and gas seems to be shifting its arm of diplomacy towards the Middle East. ++ Given their estranged
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Though the Eurovision Song Contest should not be reduced to politics, the extent to which political considerations surpass artistic ones is undeniable. ++ Russia’s victory resulted from the overwhelming support of former Soviet satellite states eager to please their intimidating big neighbor. ++ Yet, victory ultimately offers an outlet for unthreatening national aspirations and a chance to exert
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President Medvedev’s visit to China has important symbolic significance. ++ Driven by their shared goals of safeguarding and promoting national interests in an era of US dominance, Beijing and Moscow have grown increasingly close in recent years. ++ They formed strategic partnerships on key international issues, such as defense, and established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. ++ Yet
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Iran, which is the OPEC’s second’s largest exporter, has enough natural gas to alleviate Western Europe’s uncomfortable reliance on Russia’s energy exports. ++ Disputes over pipelines, political blocking, and current US sanctions on capital inflow into Iran stand in the way of exploiting this huge potential. ++ Much depends on the coming elections, both in the US and Iran,
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US diplomats will not exceed their offer - worth billions - to modernize Poland’s armed forces in exchange for the hosting of the anti-missile shield base on Polish soil. ++ Poland’s expectations are higher than what the US is prepared to offer and talks are now threatened with collapse. ++ Poland’s room for maneuver is limited by Russia’s easing of its position against the missile shield, NATO’s
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Over the last 14 years, Lukashenko has secured Minsk’s sovereignty, improved the wealth of the population, and raised the interest of European investors. ++ Yet these achievements mask rampant corruption and lack of democracy. ++ Since both Soviet times and the era of Eastern European autocracies are over, Belarus needs real reforms. ++ Unchallenged, Lukashenko may remain in power but he must
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The US is making a bold, perhaps doltish, move by refusing to discuss a treaty aimed at preventing weapons in outer space. ++ China and Russia have warned that a countermove would be unavoidable to ensure their own security. ++ Many are urging the Pentagon to consider the historical consequences of expanding warfare to new frontiers. ++ In reality, however, defense contractors and military
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Russia is increasing military means in Georgia that show striking parallels with Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus. ++ NATO members argue Georgia’s state of democratization needs to improve before they are willing to risk souring relations with Russia, but it is overlooked that much more is at stake here. ++ Despite EU and NATO bureaucratic considerations, Western help in general is
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Despite hopes for change in the West, the new Russian president is hardly going to initiate a new foreign policy. ++ While Medvedev’s liberal instincts are debatable, the forces arrayed around and against him remained the same. ++ Besides, Medevedev’s presidency was not earned but “given” to him, for his unquestioning loyalty to Putin. ++ It is a widespread misconception
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President-elect Dmitry Medvedev realizes that high economic growth cannot be sustained as long as Russia relies primarily on macroeconomic policy and rising oil prices, and inequality and corruption remain widespread. ++ His rhetoric suggests that he will seek to encourage entrepreneurship, empower civil society, and create an independent judiciary in order to diversify the economy and combat
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Russia and China are autocracies by conviction. ++ They believe in the virtues of strong central government and despise the weaknesses of the democratic system. ++ Autocracy was thought to be less successful in aggregating national wealth, which China and Russia are proving to be untrue. ++ Can autocracies enter the liberal international order without becoming liberal? Yes, Russia and China can.
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Japan and Russia’s planned cooperation in fields of energy, transportation, and the environment require settling their territorial dispute. ++ So as to expand its influence in the booming Asia-Pacific region and maintain its volumes of energy exports, Russia may cede sovereignty of the northern islands to Japan. ++ Successful negotiations would enable crucial collaboration on North Korea
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There is more to NATO’s enlargement plans than the official explanations imply. ++ “NATO is just a vehicle and another opportunity to extend its hard power globally” says Dan Plesch. ++ Regional dominance in former Soviet territory countervails potential return of Russian ambition. ++ NATO would gain influence over oil supplies, too. ++ Therefore Russian perception of threat by NATO
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Russian perception of enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia as a threat is reasonable. ++ Russia desperately needs EU investment and technology. ++ Europe needs Russian natural gas. ++ Russia should also be stronger engaged in disarmament again. ++ Stable relations to Russia should be preferred over NATO enlargement, representing “the fantasies of an American president.”
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Not the US but the new big globalizers are responsible for renewed global tensions since the 1980s. ++ BRIC countries, – Brazil, Russia, India and China – terrify because they compensate for weakness by projecting power. ++ Yet they struggle with inclusive development, demography, and financial transparency. ++ Small adaptable states are actually more likely to overtake performances
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European obstructionism of US proposals at the NATO summit exposes the EU’s division, weakness, and indecisiveness. ++ Energy dependency means that Russia has a de facto veto over EU security. ++ Suggesting the EU could mediate between the US and Russia is unrealistic. ++ A revival of Ostpolitik would impede NATO, increase Russia’s leverage, and lead to a deterioration of
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The threats to US supremacy tend to be overstated. ++ China and Russia won’t achieve global domination while the post war arrangement goes on. ++ Yet to contain the progress of autocracy, protect and promote liberalism, and maintain its global power, the US should lead a democratic front within the framework of international institutions and cease discrediting its model with inappropriate
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Europe needs Russia for its oil and natural gas and Russia needs Europe for revenue from these resources. ++ This reciprocal relationship explains Europe’s opposition to granting Ukraine and Georgia NATO membership. ++ The issue of energy security is one of the few issues where central and eastern European countries agree with the US and are in conflict with Germany and France.
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Russia could benefit from the US financial crisis if Americans transfer their excess liquidity to currencies such as the ruble which are likely to appreciate. ++ Russia is enticing to foreign investors: the ruble is undervalued, Russian equities are cheap, and commodities are scarce. ++ Yet Russia will also face risks as a sudden increase in capital inflow could lead to reduced reform and
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Medvedev will not transform a system created by his mentor, to which he contributed, and thanks to which he enjoys uncontested primacy. ++ Only economic difficulties and hostility to the intended modernization could bolster conservative opposition and result in change. ++ Russia’s political future will depend on the executive team’s ability to sustain growth, but liberalization remains unlikely.
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Israel’s legitimate nuclear program is not a valuable excuse for Russia to jeopardize international security by supplying a reactor to Iran and by agreeing on nuclear cooperation with
Egypt. ++ The international community should strive to prevent unstable democracies from acquiring nuclear weapons, acknowledge that Iran is not just a threat to Israel but to the world, and hold Russia
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Energy exports are enabling Russia to be increasingly assertive and object to the US’ deployment of 10 missiles near its borders. ++ If it is possible concerning terrorism and nuclear energy, cooperation between the two countries may spread to more areas, but regarding European missile defense, the US should stand its ground. ++ Giving in would only lead to
greater intransigence from the Kremlin.
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Aside from entertaining international tensions to maintain high oil prices, Russian foreign policy has been dominated by ambivalence towards the West. ++ With the crucial importance of Russians’ foreign assets, the West should not be provoked but can not be trusted. ++ Medvedev may put an end to the Soviet legacy of suspicion in international relations, as well as an understanding of democracy as
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The development of modern western democracies in the last century linked economic growth with political and cultural modernization. ++ Russia and China seem to demonstrate there is a viable authoritarian alternative to democracy and the rule of law in a free market economy. ++ But both countries’ economies are ridden by intensifying corruption and deficiencies that could soon be a threat to world
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“Energy security” has become synonymous with less competition, political vulnerability and erosion of the rule of law. ++ With Dmitri Medvedev acting as both president and chairman of Gazprom, the Kremlin maintains an iron grip on the energy sector. ++ Brussels must demand transparency, restructuring, and market liberalization from Moscow in exchange for access to Europe’s downstream assets.
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The Russian economy is weaker than it appears. Inflation is in double figures and high growth has been dependent on commodity prices. ++ Furthermore political stability rests on a perversion of the meaning of democracy, and the Caucasus is more troubled than ever. ++ Mr. Medvedev may differ from his predecessor but if he is going to solve these issues, power sharing with Mr.Putin will not make
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Kosovo’s independence weakens international institutions, which have been waning in influence since end of Cold War. ++ UN and NATO unable to regulate international conflicts. ++ Weaker countries most likely to support international regulations, superpowers rely least upon international law. ++ Institutions can only function if set up to resolve concrete problems; standards can’t be created with
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EU member states tend to act autonomously in their relations to Russia. ++ Implementation of EU treaty provisions on common security and foreign policy offers new prospects for EU-Russia cooperation and would be conducive to a partnership focused on solving common global problems. ++ An understanding that a foreign policy consensus is important will also help the relations of individual member
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Moscow and other member governments have split over the role of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OECD), according to Richard Weitz of World Politics Review. The organization, that seeks to promote the rule of law, human rights, and democratic values recently gave up the observation effort on Russia’s parliamentary elections following heavy restrictions from the
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Russia’s influence once again looms over the Baltic countries, and their position within the European Union and NATO is not mitigating the threat, argues International Herald Tribune journalist Adam Ellick. New Russian investments in media and infrastructure, coercive use of strategic energy sources, and instigation of militancy among Russian minorities have rendered Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
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Europe has become heavily reliant on Russia to meet its energy needs. This trend undermines Europe’s self-confidence and jeopardizes its geopolitical position as well as that of the United States, says Ariel Cohen from the Heritage Foundation.
Russia’s agenda seeks to perpetuate dependence by consolidating Gazprom’s position at home and abroad. As foreign companies such as Shell and BP fail to
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Op-Ed Contributor to the New York Times Leon Aron insists Russia’s premiership does not provide Mr. Putin access to wide-ranging presidential powers, and explores Putin’s prospects of retaining the presidential post. On the base of Putin’s contradictory record, neither President Bush nor White house contenders would be able to formulate a coherent Russia policy based on
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Control of the world’s oil is in a smaller and smaller number of hands, writes Sacha Kumaria on Yale Global Online. Rising oil prices — analysts predict $100 per barrel by the end of 2007 — has fuelled increasing competition between independent oil companies (IOC’s) such as Exxon Mobil and national oil companies (NOC’s). However, the world’s largest oil companies plan
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FP lists the top most valuable disputed turfs that might just be worth a fight. The world was astonished by Russia’s recent claim to the arctic shelf, with potential for billions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves. But looking globally, many other strategic and mineral rich territories are just as highly contested between several countries. Japan vs. China, Venezuela against major US oil
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Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation Morton Abramowitz calls on EU member states to take a united stand on Martii Ahitissari’s blueprint for Kosovo’s “supervised independence” from Serbia. Even though Ahitissari’s proposal complies with the official EU (as well as US) policy on the issue, a number of European nations were still openly skeptical of challenging a country’s territorial integrity.
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The US intention to extend parts of its missile defense system to Poland and the Czech Republic has ruffled feathers throughout Europe. The issue has been particularly divisive in Germany, where Merkel has tried to occupy the diplomatic middle ground by proposing a multilateral missile shield project under NATO auspices in its stead - a suggestion that the US has rejected. Daniel Möckli of the
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Higher engagement of the EU and the USA in the Black Sea zone could limit European dependence on Russian energy and bring stability to the region, writes Ronald D. Asmus of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board Member points to recent developments, such as 9/11 and the enlargement of the EU in 2004, which have given the Caspian region and its energy
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In 2006, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine and Georgia, indicating that Moscow is prepared to use energy resources to exert political power over Europe. Keith C. Smith of CSIS writes that, though European leaders initially showed unified opposition to Moscow’s power play, there have since been few tangible indications of new EU policies which would protect against future Russian
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Though the space race battles of the cold war are long past, Russia is now poised to challenge the US in a twenty-first century technological battle: satellite navigation. This $15 billion market is currently dominated by the US Global Positioning System (GPS), raising fears that monopoly control could lead to a US shut-off in a time of crisis. Russia hopes to introduce eight navigation
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In February 2006, 60 nations convened to compose the Afghanistan Compact, a blueprint for Afghanistan’s transitional government, which outlined the Action Plan for Peace, Reconciliation, and Justice. Yet the Action Plan, first initiated on December 12, 2006, has yet to be fully implemented. A report released by Human Rights Watch at the end of January counted more than 4,400 Afghans who have died
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Despite a rhetoric of cooperation, Russia might constitute more of an impediment than a partner in the fight against Islamist terrorism and the promotion of democracy in the Middle East. Igor Khrestin and John Elliott, Russian Studies researchers at the American Enterprise Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations respectively, argue that by placating Islamist regimes, Moscow hopes to avoid
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Former Polish Secretary of Defense Radek Sikorski vows that Poland will not comply unconditionally with the proposed US missile defense system in Central Europe. Russia’s recent deployment of missile batteries along the Polish border has placed Poland at the front lines of this conflict. Meanwhile, the faulty US intelligence during the lead-up to the war in Iraq and the EU’s $120 billion
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North Korean nuclear tests are symptoms of an unheralded threat: not the exertion of North Korean strength, but the prospective collapse of Kim Jong Il’s government. Weakness in Pyongyang could result in desperation, a WMD attack on the South, or full-on military engagement with Seoul. Drawing on this possibility of collapse, Robert D. Kaplan discusses opportunities for:
- Reconstruction and
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Engagement in the Caspian region is an effective way to improve transatlantic cooperation, says Richard Morningstar. As the current US Special Representative for the Caspian Region, Morningstar foresees European over-dependence on Russian resources decreasing as a result of Caspian engagement. Russia could lose influence in neighboring countries. While US policy makers have always focused on the
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SAIS researchers Cornell and Jonsson emphasize the threat of organized crime to Kosovo’s fragile stability. Kosovo began sliding toward state failure after the reestablishment of the Kosovo Liberation Army (PDK) as a political party and its incorporation into national security bodies. The PDK’s involvement with national security has created a major problem for the UN Mission in Kosovo and the
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