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Fabian Martin Lieschke: Iran’s nuclear strategy – one that allows it to buy time and improve its negotiating position – seems to be working. The US policy shift has come too late - Iran has already wrapped Germany, Russia and China around its little finger. The next US President will be faced with a tough choice.
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David Francis: Obama’s popularity should not be interpreted as a shift in German policy towards the United States. Many officials I spoke with while reporting from Berlin earlier this year said Germany will continue to act in its own interests no matter who is in the White House.
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Matthias Stephan Fifka: Even if Obama enjoys much more sympathy abroad and is being received like a rock star by the public, his foreign policy would not differ essentially from McCain’s. The biggest discrepancy between the candidates are the expectations of the Europeans, who are likely to be disillusioned with Obama as president.
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Rüdiger Lentz: Obama’s speech at the Victory Column in Berlin, impressive as it was, contained more empty slogans than substance. This was not the radical change he promised during his primary campaign. His charisma might not be enough to win the elections.
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Wolfgang Ischinger: The transatlantic relationship will benefit from a kind of renaissance when the next US president is elected. Rather than sitting on the sidelines and waiting for US demands, Europe should actively develop strategic initiatives and explain European priorities to the US.
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Anne Applebaum: Obama’s visit to Europe signifies a change in America’s political culture – it shows American voters are aware of the damage the current administration has done to America’s image and are not indifferent to how their country is perceived abroad.
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David Francis: Germany is not only comfortable with Russia as an energy partner, it is comfortable with Russia as a strategic partner. This is at odds with the Bush administration, which views Russia with suspicion. Germany’s position has exposed an ideologically divide in Europe.
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Marek Swierczynski: Commotion and despair are in the air after Poland rejected the US bid to host ballistic defence system. The government is evasive in public statements and sends opposing signals in diplomacy. The MD project, once regarded as a unique historic opportunity, seems to be drifting away.
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Marek Swierczynski: The farewell trip of the 43rd US president shows who and what really matters for America in Europe. George Bush visits America’s traditional allies and friends but emphasizes the role of the EU as the main transatlantic link and one that may play an important role during the next presidency.
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Loretta Napoleoni: The truth is that terrorism is a political phenomenon and, as long as it remains in the domain of politics, there are few chances to win.
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Samantha Ferrell: Combating Human Trafficking requires systematic worldwide action. In a rapidly globalizing world, organized crime groups are operating transnationally. Unless there is an increased effort on the part of international agencies, the US, and the EU, to coordinate efforts, human trafficking will only continue to expand.
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Marek Swierczynski: The NATO-isation of missile defense at the Bucharest summit paradoxically carried away the Poland-US agreement on the issue. The once all-uniting idea of placing the interceptors on Poland’s Baltic coast is losing political support and negotiations are reported to be close to a stall. The current round of the talks is not expected to push things forward.
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Péter Marton: Afghanistan needs an external security guarantee for the long term. NATO should provide that guarantee against clashing external influence-seeking endeavours, but it can only do so it if it sheds its geopolitical identity for the Afghan mission. That is how a neutral strategic identity could be secured for Afghanistan.
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Marek Swierczynski: Greece and Russia signed an agreement to build the southern branch of the South Stream natural gas pipeline. President Putin’s last victory hardens Gazprom’s grip on Europe and makes any energy diversification projects more difficult. Unless the EU looks at the map and acts.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: Mistakes have been made on both the Russian and the Western sides. Russia should now be approached as an equal rather than looked down upon or scolded for non-democratic ways.
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Frank-Walter Steinmeier: For the past 60 years the transatlantic relationship has been the world’s transformative partnership. America’s relationship with Europe - more than with any other part of the world - enables both of us to achieve goals that neither of us could achieve alone.
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Memo 5: Members of the Atlantic Community are more concerned about the short term consequences than the potential long term benefits of the current high oil price.
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Sascha Müller-Kraenner: The EU and the US have the responsibility as well as the financial and technological means to address the climate challenge. Yet their approach needs to be internationally orientated so that it also offers a platform to the new assertive voices of China, India, Russia and others.
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Ambassador Victoria Nuland: “Europe needs, the United States needs, NATO needs, the democratic world needs – a stronger, more capable European defense capacity.”
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Charles Kupchan and Ray Takeyh: Rather than continuing to pursue strategies which isolate and attempt to contain Iran, the US needs to follow the lead of its Arab Allies, practice diplomacy, and encourage regional integration.
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Daniel Rackowski: As many Europeans ponder about the putative blessings of the post-Bush era, it is only opportune to ask how the at-times strained transatlantic relationship might evolve in the future.
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Ralf Fuecks: The United States must offer Iran direct negotiations regarding its nuclear program. There needs to be a higher level of political and energy cooperation.
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Wess Mitchell: I outline recent developments between the United States and Poland regarding the US missile defense program. Relations between Poland and Russia are likely to deteriorate and Tusk may have compromised himself by acting so decisively this early in his term.
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Memo 4: Members of the Atlantic Community are mostly optimistic about the future of Kosovo and conflict resolution in the Western Balkans. The EU has a key role in this region and policy is in the right track, but, of course, big challenges still lie ahead.
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Global Must Read Articles
By agreeing to host a US missile defence base Poland, like the UK and Czech Republic, became America’s groundbait and exposed itself to a possiblity of a nuclear attack. ++ In turn, the system is supposed to protect Poland as well. ++ Bad news is, MD will not work for at least another 50 years and it is doubtful if ever at all. ++ There is no rationale behind MD: it is only built to
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There are voices among US officials that Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki became overconfident about his government’s ability to handle the security situation in Iraq without the US troops and that he wants to portray himself as the national hero who kicked out the US. ++ Domestically, Maliki’s Shi’ite-dominated government no longer depends on the US and seems to be more and more unwilling to advocate
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There is a wide gap between declarations that a two-state solution is vital for Israel’s security, and actually doing something about it. ++ Both Olmert and Bush have a few months left in offices: they will not go down in history as great leaders, but can still burnish their legacies by truly engaging in the peace effort. ++ They should freeze the expansion of Jewish settlements, cease
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The war in Iraq eroded not only US strength but also its moral authority and sense of purpose. ++ Iraq strains the US army to such a extent that it is not left with forces sufficient to stabilize Afghanistan. ++ Moreover, critics of the US administration emphazise the lack of justification of the US-lead invasion and doubt that the US is still in the position to e.g. excoriate Russia. ++ But as
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US journalism was famous for its independence and professionalism, but recent coverage of the Russia-Georgia conflict is unfair and unbalanced. ++ The so-called free press automatically took Georgia’s side and ignored or distorted events in order to portray an “evil” Russia. ++ On the other hand, Russian media reacted with messages that remind Russians that the true evil is the US and that
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For those who live in hunger, long-term solutions cannot come fast enough. ++ The US, donor of half of the world’s food aid, is highly criticized for its unique practice of monetization that disrupts commercial markets and can cause, albeit temporarily, prices to abruptly plunge. ++ Furthermore, the US is the only country that does not fully accept the framework offered by the Food Aid
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Russia claims to protect Ossetians, but its brutal military campaign encompassed the whole of Georgia and therefore a regime change in Georgia seems to be its true aim. ++ In light of these events, Georgia’s reasons for seeking NATO membership are apparent. ++ Hopefully, NATO will move ahead with a membership track for both Georgia and Ukraine. ++ The US and its allies must persuade the Russian
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The current conflict is not only about Russia and Georgia, but also represents the US-Russian competition for control over the strategically important transit routes for oil and gas. ++ The Georgian President must have aimed at American involvement when he attacked Russia, because he knows only the US is able to enforce a solution advantageous for Georgia. ++ The West is now challenged by
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The Pakistani government finally decided to impeach President Musharraf. ++ The US declared the impeachment “an internal matter” of Pakistan, which demonstrates that Musharraf has lost the support of the US, his biggest advocate in the past. ++ But in the light of Musharraf’s domestic unpopularity, a working relationship with the new civilian order has better chances to serve US interests. ++
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After 1945, the US was clearly the world’s leader but it took its supremacy for granted and became complacent. ++ Since then, the US has become dependent on foreign oil and relied on debt to finance its economy. ++ American students are behind while universities fill with foreigners. ++ Leadership in technology and entertainment does not provide enough domestic jobs. ++ To reverse this
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In times when there is no overbearing enemy, the transatlantic alliance is challenged by the geopolitical interests of each partner, which differ from one another. ++ For instance, the EU needs good relations with Russia and the Muslim world because they border on its territory and supply its energy demands, but these protagonists oppose the US hegemonic global pretensions. ++ Balancing the
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US-China relationship is arguably the most important bilateral tie of our time and its benefits are increasingly recognized. ++ One of the advantages of the Olympic Games is that the attention it generates could create a better understanding of modern China and finally tear down the cold-war perception of the People’s Republic in the US. ++ Washington and Beijing must engage in a
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The recent escalation of violence in Afghanistan and the calls to divert the US troops from Iraq make the question of ending these long and costly wars even more urgent. ++ There is only one organisation that can provide the leadership necessary to defeat the insurgencies and bring peace and stability to both countries: the UN. ++ US and its allies can never achieve these goals alone. ++ Only the
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By denigrating the effectiveness of condoms and demonising sex workers, Bush administration inflicted deadly damage to the fight with AIDS both in the US and abroad. ++ Consequently, global policy-making on HIV prevention regresses just when it’s most needed. ++ Until now, UN has failed to challenge American influence. ++ 17th International Aids Conference which takes place in Mexico City this
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His presidency coming to an end, Bush becomes obsessed with his legacy and solving the issue of nuclear Iran is foremost in his mind. ++ If he decides to support Israel in its possible attack on Iran, the economic and political costs would be disastrous: oil prices would soar, terrorist attacks worldwide would follow, and the possibility of any dialogue between Iran and the West would be ruined
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Last week Turkey narrowly averted a catastrophe when its Constitutional Court turned back state prosecutors’ motion to disband the ruling Justice and Development Party by only one vote. ++ Had the prosecutor succeeded in his request the will of Turkish voters would have been disregarded and Turkey’s chances for EU membership ruined. ++ Such a ruling was a victory not only for Turkey, but
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Tomorrow China’s new antimonopoly law takes effect. ++ At a formal level, it is comparable to the laws in the US and the EU, but its implementation will not be as simple. ++ The US encourages competition in the marketplace; EU, on the other hand, strives to keep booming businesses from being too successful - Chinese law resembles the European system. ++ Moreover, the formulated goals such as the
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US presidential candidates have been so busy campaigning they lost sight of the changes taking place in Iraq. ++ For the first time in years, the risk of a massive insurrection has diminished and there are realistic prospects for reconciliation among the Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni parts of the country. ++ Establishing a fixed deadline for the withdrawal of the US forces would not only rid the
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The global trade negotiations known as the Doha Round broke up yesterday without an agreement. ++ Despite expectations of a new international plan to cut tariffs, members of the WTO proved themselves unready for such a deal. ++ While the US and the EU had made some concessions on farm supports, India and China essentially torpedoed the talks asserting a broad right to raise tariffs to protect
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US government has a tendency to “squash mosquitoes with TNT,” which shows in its treatment of Iran. ++ There’s no need to fear Iran: Ahamadinejad is only a figurehead putting on a show of might to gain respect in the Muslim world; the real power is in the hands of religious leaders, many of whom are sympathetic to the West. ++ The fact that Americans don’t see that reveals they
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Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder stated in his article on China that the economic wealth will advance the democratic transformation of the country ++ But it is not that simple: the Communist party uses the economic success to justify its rule. ++ Therefore, it is necessary to coordinate German policy towards China with that of other Western powers. ++ Schröder in his article
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Even if the Bush administration used to neglect it, 2009 can be the “hour of Europe.” ++ If Germany, Great Britain, and France would propose serious new contributions, the new administration would listen and offer the Europeans the “leadership” they so often say they desire. ++ Unfortunately, only few European statesmen look on changes in Washington as an opportunity to propose something new.
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America declares it stands up for human rights; it condemns the regime in Burma and calls for fair democratic elections in Zimbabwe. ++ However, it is doing so only where it is convenient: human rights infringements in China and Saudi Arabia or the fact that Dmitri Medvedev came to power in fraudulent elections are overlooked. ++ The hypocrisy of condemning one and turning a blind eye to the
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Yousaf Raza Gilani, the new civilian prime minister of Pakistan, is visiting Washington this week. ++ Talks between the leaders of Pakistan and the US are an opportunity to recast bilateral relations and start a closer cooperation to promote democracy and fight al-Qaeda. ++ To achieve that, Bush must express his commitment to the cause and declare more economic assistance and carefully monitored
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India just had its first vote of confidence because the government’s communist allies withdrew their support over the civilian nuclear deal, arguing that the pact made India a pawn of the US. ++ Prime Minister Singh’s Congress party-led coalition won 275 votes in its favor and 256 against in the confidence motion. ++ The win means India can now focus on pushing through a long-delayed nuclear
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Even though it is Afghanistan that is the main security threat to the US, the road to improvement in that part of the world starts in Pakistan. ++ Al-Qaeda has found a safe haven in Pakistan’s lawless region near the Afghan border, where it has regrouped and reached pre-9/11 strength. ++ The critical role Pakistan plays in security policy has been recognized by Washington; last week Congress
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Mugabe’s bloody rule will continue for another term unless Russia, China, and South Africa help impose tougher sanctions and an arms embargo on Zimbabwe. ++ Moscow and Beijing’s vetoes against tougher measures in the Security Coucil are to blame for the current situation. ++ US should continue with its bilateral penalties and press others to follow. ++ Only sustained and consistent
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The Bush administration has recently shifted its approach toward Iran and is treating it with unjustified leniency: the possibility of reopening a diplomatic mission in Tehran and face-to-face meetings are gestures Iran hasn’t earned. ++ Tehran continues with its uranium enrichment program, tests missiles capable of reaching Europe, sponsors terrorism in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Gaza and
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J Street, which emerged as a counterweight to AIPAC, released a new poll indicating that US Jews’ views about the Middle East are considerably more dovish than frequently acknowledged. ++ Large majorities of US Jews favor diplomacy with Iran and support a two-state solution in Palestine. ++ Furthermore, 64 percent said they were in favor of the withdrawal of US military forces from Iraq, while
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Although the plans for a long-term security arrangement between Iraq and the US have caused a wave of criticism, such an agreement is in the best interest of both countries. ++ The main objectives of Americans and Iraqis are convergent: a stable Iraq with a modern oil industry, withdrawal of coalition troops from the region and Iraqi security forces that are capable of taking command. ++ In order
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Former Vice President Al Gore said that Americans must abandon electricity generated by fossil fuels within a decade. ++ Although his engagement against global warming is well known, Gore argued in this speech that the reasons for renouncing fossil fuels go far beyond environmental concern. ++ He cited military-intelligence studies warning of “dangerous national security implications” tied to
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Hopes for friendly relations with Russia, running high in the 1990s, were ruined by the Bush administration. ++ NATO membership offer to Georgia and Ukraine and plans to install elements of missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic have fuelled Russian paranoia about strategic encirclement. ++ We need to understand that Russian foreign policy is shaped by their hunger for respect
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Thirty years after cutting off diplomatic ties, the US is planning the establishment of a modest diplomatic representation in Tehran for which it appears to have secured Iranian approval. ++ Though this shift from previous hard-line policies toward Tehran may essentially be an effort on Bush’s behalf to “leave a ‘positive legacy’ behind,” he is thereby also hinting at US engagement to a
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With a military budget larger than the rest of the world’s combined, the US is still undeniably world’s greatest superpower. ++ However, there are clear signs that its empire is overreaching itself and the whole system starting to crack. ++ Russia is the only state with a nuclear weapons arsenal that equals America’s. ++ Russia’s political and military leaders should pay attention to
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Failing missile shield negotiations with Poland are a symbol of decline of American influence and attractiveness under Bush. ++ Too much bad blood has been spilled between Washington and Warsaw, and the Poles are no longer prepared to blindly follow their ally. ++ The new Polish Prime Minister, Tusk, is prepared to adopt a much tougher stance in relations with the US. ++ Due to the Guantanamo and
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The situation in the Middle East is past the point when sanctions and diplomatic talks can still make a difference. ++ The Islamic Republic is not going to yield, it is simply playing for time while trying to produce deliverable nuclear weapons. ++ Instead of insisting on the measures which apparently do not work, the US should consider helping Israel if it decides to strike Iran or at least not
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Despite warnings of their imminent collapse, with the help of US government, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be able to survive and stock market panic can be avoided. ++ Since the two companies have $5.3 trillion in liabilities, the Fed will need to step in if they become insolvent or consequences could be dire. ++ Their survival, however, is not necessarily good news: governmental intervention
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Uncertainty in an emerging “new world order” has brought with it new approaches to the provision of multilateral responses. One concept gaining attention in the US is a ‘league of democracies’, an institutionalized body of nations with a strong transatlantic focus dedicated to concerted efforts based on common democratic beliefs. If elected, John McCain has promised to begin discussing the
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The US-India nuclear pact, declared “almost certainly dead” last month, will probably be signed by the Indian government after all. ++ The onus of getting it implemented is therefore back on the US. ++ Congress must stop pressuring India into backing US policy on Iran. ++ India shouldn’t have to choose between good relations with itself and Tehran. ++ PM Manmohan Singh will not agree to toe
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July 1 marked the 40th anniversary of the NPT which provided an opportunity to reexamine its current and future role. ++ Nuclear nonproliferation movement is at a crossroads. ++ It is crucial that the next US president calls for deep cuts in nuclear weapons around the world at the start of his administration in January 2009. ++ He should also appoint a nonproliferation “czar” to help him shape
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“A US willingness to talk to Iran on the full range of issues dividing the two countries offers the best hope of rescuing a failed policy.” ++ If the US does not negotiate with Iran as proposed by Obama, they will be lacking options besides attacking Iran. ++ The Europeans, Russia, and China are already in dialogue with Teheran. ++ After coordinating with the Europeans, the US should start
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Sino-American ties are likely to be the most important component of international relations for the next several decades. ++ The question is whether China’s re-emergence can be managed without a conflict. ++ Powerful voices on the right of US politics want a tougher stance against China. ++ But there is no clearer expression of the interdependence that comes with globalisation than between
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Six-party framework is our best option to achieve the strategic goal of Korea’s denuclearization. ++ Now North Korea is already disabling its plutonium production facility at Yongbyon under the monitoring of US inspectors. ++ The US has no permanent enemies. ++ After North Korea yields its nuclear production records, US president will remove it from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.
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Gao Xiqing, the president of China’s sovereign wealth fund expressed his frustration concerning the political opposition his fund sometimes faces when it attempts to invest in the West. ++ From the economic point of view, this is frightening. ++ Without SWF investments, the current financial crisis in the US would be much worse. ++ If SWF shareholders no longer feel welcome in the US, they
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In the debate regarding climate change and the shortage of fossil fuels, biofuels were for a long time considered to be the ideal solution. However recently, they have increasingly come under fire. Critics denounce the fact that through production of ethanol and biodiesel, the foodstuffs which are urgently needed in poor countries end up in the gas tanks of Western cars. In addition, the
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On Thursday, the US Supreme Court ruled that detainees held at Guantanamo Bay have the right to challenge their detentions in a federal court. ++ This marks the third time the court has made clear that the president has no authority to trash the fundamental principles of American jurisprudence. ++ Since the decision was constitutionally based, it will end Bush’s policy of arbitrary arrest,
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The climate change bill currently being debated in the US Senate is paramount for actual, sustainable improvement. ++ Not only for the sake of the environment, economies have recently experienced that innovation and emissions reduction can be quite lucrative. ++ In this spirit, one can expect the entrepreneurial character of the US economy to deliver a new age of greener policy and consumption.
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Sparked by a recent Russian territory claim at the North Pole, a meeting has been called this week in Greenland over the future of the Arctic. ++ In the midst of a decade old rivalry, the US, Canada, Russia, Norway and Denmark have a huge stake in future development as the region may contain up to a quarter of the earth’s natural resources. ++ Although each nation is committed to a peaceful
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The US proposal of a regional nuclear defense shield against Iran is not being met with enthusiasm by its allies in the Persian Gulf. ++ As business ties with Iran deepen, the Gulf States perceive the offer of the US as a short-sighted attempt to divide the Middle East, and as potentially highly destabilizing. ++ It is in the US’s own interest not to force its allies into making an unnecessary
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US Federal Reserve officials continue to insist that recent price increases have almost nothing to do with monetary policy. ++ Yet their claim that only global supply and demand for corn and oil are responsible for the soaring of oil and food prices is simply wrong. ++ Oil on global markets is denominated in dollars. ++ When speculators anticipate that the greenback’s value will fall
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Iran, which is the OPEC’s second’s largest exporter, has enough natural gas to alleviate Western Europe’s uncomfortable reliance on Russia’s energy exports. ++ Disputes over pipelines, political blocking, and current US sanctions on capital inflow into Iran stand in the way of exploiting this huge potential. ++ Much depends on the coming elections, both in the US and Iran,
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While enjoying a security the post-Cold War period has afforded it, Europeans are becoming rhetorically more critical of their American protectors and militarily less willing to engage security threats around the globe. ++ A conventional response may warn that this attitude is short-sighted and immoral, however, Gideon Rachman says it might just be logical. ++ Albeit a lack of hard-power options
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US diplomats will not exceed their offer - worth billions - to modernize Poland’s armed forces in exchange for the hosting of the anti-missile shield base on Polish soil. ++ Poland’s expectations are higher than what the US is prepared to offer and talks are now threatened with collapse. ++ Poland’s room for maneuver is limited by Russia’s easing of its position against the missile shield, NATO’s
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Former Fed chairman, Paul Volcker, blames this year’s financial crisis on the lenders’ and investors’ attempting to revise the age-old fundaments of finance. ++ Despite the euphoric effect of bubbles, parties involved in the financial system must remember that the further a rubber band is stretched, the harder it will snap back into its former position. ++ Credit rating
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While Turkey’s judiciary, with support from its bureaucratic and military elite, threatens to disband the AKP, the US remains reluctant to take sides. ++ The US should realize that these anti-democratic groups are not necessarily more pro-Western, and formulate a clear pro-democracy policy towards Turkey. ++ Staying non-committal will be viewed by the majority of Turks as hypocritical pragmatism,
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The old Middle East and the secular nationalism that went along with it is being replaced by a new, modern Middle East in which political Islam and anti-Western nationalism play a decisive role. ++ There is now a serious threat of “a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia for sub-regional supremacy, and between Iran and the US for regional hegemony.” ++ The entire state system in the
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According to the US, Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism causing heavy casualties in Iraq. ++ Iranian Hussein Shariatmadari denies this with the claim Iran shares Iraq’s interest in ending US occupation and armed militias. ++ Though the discovery of Iranian weaponry in Iraq suggests Iran is arming Shiite militias, Iranian authorities maintain they would sell weaponry to any party. ++ US
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The US market is experiencing the unprecedented inflow of large- and medium-size European investors. ++ Because of the extremely cheap US dollar, it became affordable for many European companies to relocate their production to the much more attractive American market. ++ While there is nothing that can stop this trans-Atlantic shift, it will have an enormous impact on the structure of the
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Recent Arab public opinion polls confirm a “gap between the aims of American policies and Arab public perceptions of the US.” ++ They also highlight that the US could improve its image by brokering peace between Palestine and Israel and by withdrawing from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. ++ While US policies are clearly opposed, middle ground could be found regarding democratic values and
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The mortgage crisis emphasized that even sophisticated market players were “clueless about new financial instruments that emerged” and general reconditioning that needed to be done. ++ Economists distinguish 3 schools of thought: libertarian, finance enthusiasm, and finance skepticism. ++ For each – better or worse, personal benefits, and individual freedom, are balanced against
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European obstructionism of US proposals at the NATO summit exposes the EU’s division, weakness, and indecisiveness. ++ Energy dependency means that Russia has a de facto veto over EU security. ++ Suggesting the EU could mediate between the US and Russia is unrealistic. ++ A revival of Ostpolitik would impede NATO, increase Russia’s leverage, and lead to a deterioration of
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The growing strength of other states, the challenges to US foreign, energy, and economic policy, and globalization, which has diluted state control, have all contributed to ending the era of American dominance. ++ The new distribution of power will lead to multiplied threats, unstable relationships and a leadership vacuum. ++ Maintaining order in a non-polar world will require joint and astute
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The traditional role of the state in Europe is diminished, therefore the capacity of EU governments to ask their people for sacrifices is reduced. ++ As the debate over using NATO forces in Afghanistan showed, EU governments are not able to live up to their obligations. ++ The European disillusionment with US policies has structural reasons and will continue after Bush’s presidency.
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A top-down model of political compromise is inapt to restore order and bring peace to Iraq’s tribal society. ++ But now, a balance of truces between hyperlocalized clans and councils is generating optimism, political progress, and a drop in ethno-sectarian violence. ++ If they hold, these networks will prevent terror and genocide, and encourage the US to help with reconstruction, peacekeeping,
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17,000 respondents in 34 countries perceived Germany as the country that has the most “positive influence” on world affairs. ++ 18 percent gave a negative assessment of Germany, the lowest disapproval figure for any of the 23 countries rated in BBC World Service survey. ++ For the first time since 2005, the number of people abroad that view the US as a positive force has increased slightly, to 35
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Europe needs Russia for its oil and natural gas and Russia needs Europe for revenue from these resources. ++ This reciprocal relationship explains Europe’s opposition to granting Ukraine and Georgia NATO membership. ++ The issue of energy security is one of the few issues where central and eastern European countries agree with the US and are in conflict with Germany and France.
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NATO has always been a two-tiered alliance in which some countries shouldered more burdens than others. ++ This fact will not change, but it also does not invalidate the significance of NATO. ++ A two-tiered NATO even has certain benefits for the US, especially since the Eastward expansion of NATO serves as a safeguard against Russia. ++ NATO’s future, if centered on sea power and not combat,
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Obama’s speech on race spoke to Europe and provided insights into the imperfections of US democracy. ++ Obama succeeded in addressing the problems of his nation, something which is rarely accomplished
in Europe. ++ The bureaucratic language which fills European politics fails to clearly discuss or solve societal issues as is made clear in Germany by the mental wall which is being built between
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Russia could benefit from the US financial crisis if Americans transfer their excess liquidity to currencies such as the ruble which are likely to appreciate. ++ Russia is enticing to foreign investors: the ruble is undervalued, Russian equities are cheap, and commodities are scarce. ++ Yet Russia will also face risks as a sudden increase in capital inflow could lead to reduced reform and
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Iran and the US are not doomed to remain eternal enemies. ++ The two countries share profound strategic interests such as stabilizing Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; preventing the spread of Russian influence; and ensuring that Middle Eastern oil flow smoothly to Western markets. ++ A path towards comprehensive negotiations should be adopted as it is low cost and could yield extremely remarkable
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The fact that the US and the EU are now responsible for under 30% of world exports indicates a decline of primacy. ++ Discussions held by the elites at the Brussels Forum highlighted the need for a closer transatlantic partnership when dealing with new global “state and nonstate threats”. ++ Internal discord in the EU and the US is hindering the focus on external common interests.
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As a reserve currency, the US dollar’s value was only sustainable while the economy was growing. ++ As many economists expect a recession, the Fed is moving aggressively to pump more liquidity into the US banking system. ++ This and increasing trade protectionism are adversely sustaining consumption, hindering capital formation and entrepreneurship, and halting the creation of wealth necessary to
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It is wrong to think that China has supplanted America in driving the global economy - the US still contributes 5 times more to the world’s GDP than China. ++ Banks around the world are learning that the US has lived beyond its means and debt may not be repaid. ++ Though a US tax cut may help, it won’t be enough to prevent recession. ++ The extent of the damage may not be known until 2009.
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The goal of global nuclear disarmament must not be abandoned. ++ Recent positive developments at the Oslo conference suggest that all nations should continue to work together toward this goal. ++ The disarmament appeal needs to be more universal. ++ Hopefully, the calls for more diplomatic-scientific cooperation, firm commitment from leaders, and expanded education will be remembered.
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The US has failed to understand that China’s objectives do not complement America’s. ++ China does not want the US to play a role in Central and East Asia, and its actions routinely illustrate this. ++ By adopting a tolerant stance, and failing to illustrate its strength, the US demonstrates its continued misunderstanding of Chinese intentions and ensures that existing problems will only worsen
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The US’s current “insistence on zero enrichment of uranium” in Iran is unreasonable. ++ The US needs to encourage Iran to abandon its national enrichment activities in favor of a multilateral program based in Iran. ++ While there would be many risks, such a program would deter Iranian proliferation, help Iran further its nuclear power agenda, and ensure greater transparency regarding its nuclear
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A Democratic candidate, if elected, needs to end the war in Iraq as promised. ++ US withdrawal would not only allow the US to make progress on domestic issues, but it would also give Iraqis an opportunity to make their own deals and decisions and could create more regional support for Iraq. ++ The idea that leaving Iraq would be “surrendering to evildoers” and simply set the stage for genocide is
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Failure to make the most of the Annapolis process would be fatal for both Israel and the international community. ++ The US needs to be “the major responsible supervisor of the negotiation process.” ++ The EU must move beyond its traditional role of paymaster and focus on state building and economic reconstruction in Palestine. ++ The EU must simultaneously demand concrete results from other
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Jan Techau and Alexander Skiba of the German Council on Foreign Relations criticize the German Government’s rejection of the US request for more German combat forces in south Afghanistan. There are at least three reasons for Germany to re-evaluate its current position: stabilizing Afghanistan is in Germany’s national interest; strategically it makes sense for Germany to carry more of
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Ted R. Bromund of Yale University explains that liberal US think tanks (and their budgets) are expanding rapidly and notes that the Brookings Institution “has grown by 50 percent over the past two years.” Conservative American think tanks are not fairing so well, but when compared to similar European institutions, all American think tanks regardless of political affiliation appear wealthy. This
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The struggling US economy has become a critical issue for America’s current and future leadership. Robert Reich, a professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and a former US secretary of labour, argues that presidential hopefuls need to recognize that “middle-class families have exhausted the coping mechanisms” which have kept them afloat since the 1970’s.
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A new rating of 22 developed countries (and the EC) puts the United States at 16th on Humanitarian Aid. The new Humanitarian Response Index (HRI), carried out by a Spain-based NGO called DARA, focuses less on total funding and more on how well aid dollars reach their target.
Sweden gets top marks for quickly delivering funds in cash, and consistently following up. The US on the other hand
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William H. Taft and Frances G. Burwell from the Atlantic Council advise the EU and US to coordinate their positions before the ICC review conference in 2009. The transatlantic partners must set an example for the rest of the world.
With the review conference on the International Criminal Court (ICC) coming up in 2009, a concerted transatlantic effort to build global consensus on international
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By autumn 2007, US Africa Command (Africom) headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany should be ready for initial operations, reports the International Herald Tribune. Africom is an administrative body that will coordinate US peacekeeping activities, humanitarian aid missions, and military partnership operations with African countries as well as offer defense support in non-military operations.
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The March 2007 Bruegel Policy Brief reveals that imbalances in global current account positions are not sustainable and need adjustment. A 15% depreciation of the dollar and an appreciation of Asian currencies is needed in order to:
- reduce the US current account deficit,
- faciliate China’s focus on domestic demand and reduce its accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, and
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