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Joseph S. Nye: If the US wants to remain powerful, strong ties to the world’s emerging powers are crucial. Improved relations between the US and India could provide the basis for China’s international integration.
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valentine anatolevich akishkin: The economic downturn and the rise of new centers of power will lead to a shift in US foreign policy doctrine, allowing the country to readjust itself to new world challenges by employing more agreeable and less costly means.
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Barack Obama Speech: “I will give our military a new mission on my first day in office: ending this war. (…) Let me be clear: We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months.”
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Abukar Arman: Lasting peace in Somalia requires a holistic approach and constructive engagement on behalf of the international community. The peace accord needs to be adapted to recognize that the precondition “cessation of violence” cannot be fulfilled before Ethiopian occupation troops have left.
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Anatol Lieven: NATO might fail in Afghanistan. Hopes for democracy, development, and progress in Afghanistan are already dead. Even though the situation seems hopeless, the West can and should prevent further deterioration.
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Thomas Speckmann: Examining the foreign policy of US presidents since Kennedy reveals that Germany is generally better off with the conservatives and that German military involvement will always be expected, regardless of who is elected.
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Mark Brzezinski : President George W. Bush travels to Europe this month to participate in the US-European Union Summit and to visit key partners, including France, Germany, Italy and Britain. These summits are likely to produce joint declarations of “bon amie” and official statements that the drift in the trans-Atlantic relationship is diminished.
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Richard G. Lugar: We must forge a more productive relationship with Russia. The absence of a collective energy security strategy and the lack of supply diversification will lead to greater fragmentation among European nations and across the Atlantic.
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Peter van Ham: NATO is slowly losing its significance as the central platform to manage transatlantic security challenges. In view of the different reasons for the Alliance’s declining relevance, its resilience, rather than its demise should surprise us.
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John C. Hulsman and A. Wess Mitchell: Coppola’s film offers lessons in diplomacy that we can’t refuse. Rather than the liberal institutionalist and neoconservative policies of the last two decades, the next US administration should adopt a flexible realist approach to deal with the challenges of a multipolar world.
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valentine anatolevich akishkin: The issue of NATO enlargement and membership to NATO divides the Ukrainian people. The split reflects the countries division along ethnical and geographical lines. Integrating Ukraine into the Alliance would more likely lead to confusion and conflict than democracy.
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Julianne Smith: If elected, Obama will attempt to reestablish a strong partnership with Europe. He should come closer to his European partners on issues such as climate change and international law, but will expect greater cooperation and support for US policies in the Middle East and Afghanistan.
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Fouad Naji Maarouf: George W. Bush was a disaster for the US. A change of attitude and government would bring good change.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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Ralf Fuecks: The United States must offer Iran direct negotiations regarding its nuclear program. There needs to be a higher level of political and energy cooperation.
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Global Must Read Articles
Now that the Bush administration has reneged on its hard line against negotiations, Iran does not take US ultimatums seriously. ++ Where progressives see flexibility, Iranian officials see weakness.++ As long as there are no sanctions, Iran could import all the technology they need throughout negotiations. ++ Diplomacy with an insincere opponent does more harm than good. ++ With its diplomatic
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Amid the general Bush-bashing, we should not forget the achievements of G.W. Bush’s foreign policy: Iraq isn’t a failure, but turns out to be a genuine success as three free elections since 2003 prove. ++ Furthermore, one must recognize that the Bush administration focused on Iran over the last two years without pushing any hasty military solution to Iran’s nuclear program. ++ US
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Obama has achieved astonishing levels of popularity abroad. ++ Foreigners, however, had better temper their excitement. ++ A “skilled tactician,” Obama tends to shrewdly adapt his discourse to his audience and since, if elected, he would in any case be constrained by a heavily Democratic Congress, chances are “what they see is not precisely what they will get.” ++ Most importantly, Obama still
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Obama has not retracted from his end-the-war stance which dates back to 2003 and was the key to his success over Clinton during the primaries. ++ But in so far as “full withdrawal” from Iraq, such as Iraqis want, never belonged to his aims, he has not changed policy. ++ His plans to maintain residual forces in Iraq and reserve “the right to intervene militarily,” reveal both his
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American policymakers in the Middle East know litte about the people there and their perception of the US. ++ A study entitled “Does the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict Still Matter? Analysing Arab Public Perceptions” prooves that “the Arab-Israeli conflict remains a central issue for most Arabs.” ++ The Arab public judges the US according to its policies, not its values. ++ Washington policymakers
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Since the Cold War, US foreign policy has struggled to find a “main enemy,” thereby defining its focus. ++ Global politics, however, have returned to a status quo, in which a broad range of problems, with long-term resilience and requiring non-ideological responses, will be better served with America’s continuing strategic advantage on most fronts. ++ On a non-governmental
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Iranian diplomacy reflects pride, self-confidence, and a decreasing fear of the US and Israel. ++ Whereas Tehran’s hard-liners are using the argument of Western weakness to justify their rejection of compromise, pragmatic voices believe it is time for Iran to negotiate and “consolidate its gains.” ++ At present, Iran’s course is unclear: “even as they talk about diplomacy, the Iranians continue
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Bush’s departure will not facilitate addressing global problems. ++ The complex issues of peace in the Middle East and nuclear proliferation will continue to dominate the diplomatic debate. ++ In addition, American and European leadership will be further required to manage the world economy, reduce poverty and disparities, and tackle climate change. ++ But the largest remaining challenge will be
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The resurgence of the Taliban and al Qaeda demonstrates that the war in Iraq is dangerously diverting attention from the “war of necessity” in Afghanistan. ++ Rather than inflexibly planning to stay on or leave Iraq, candidates should ask whether “Washington would have more influence if it completely withdrew or negotiated a slower drawdown with the Iraqis.” ++ The chances chaos in Iraq could
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For most Europeans, including the British journalist who said that he will “be remembered as a blithering idiot,” Bush’s legacy is the Iraq war. ++ On Bush’s last visit to the UK, however, Brown emphasized the president’s accomplishments and listed the common aims of British and American foreign policy: focusing on Afghanistan, reassessing Iraq, and submitting Iran to stricter sanctions. ++ In
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The parallels between the arrangement sought by Bush with the Iraq/US deal, and the defective British Iraq settlement in the 1930s, are striking. ++ The July 31st accord would free Iraq of UN sanctions and provide it with American economic and military aid. ++ 80 years ago, after Britain granted Iraq’s independence, it failed to maintain order and a wave of radical nationalist uprisings - “a
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Albeit reversible, the situation is improving in Iraq as the government gains confidence and increasingly asserts its independence from the US and Iran. ++ Despite the lack of jobs, clean water, and electricity, Iraqis are benefiting from high oil prices and can hope for a normal future. ++ Both plans for precipitated withdrawal and remaining indefinitely are foolish. ++ Swift diplomacy is now
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Heath Kern Gibson graduated from Denison University and received a master’s in public administration from Harvard. She is the director of digital media in the public affairs office of the State Department in Washington, where she is responsible for its Internet operation. Mrs. Kern Gibson is also the editor in chief of DipNote, the State Department’s blog, which is an alternative source for US
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Today, a Syrian-Israeli peace, which would enable Syria to recover the Golan Heights and protect the country’s interests in Lebanon, is complicated by Syria’s alliance with Iran. ++ Yet if Syria achieves peace with Israel, its good relations to Iran could turn out to be a good thing. ++ “Syria’s stance might limit, rather than extend, the reach of Iran’s strategy of regional destabilization.” ++
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As Bush’s term ends, the president can look back on a solid Asia legacy. ++ He successfully used India to balance China. ++ India is the world’s largest democracy, 80,000 Indian students study in the US, and trade between India and the US has increased up to $26 billion. ++ Hence, close cooperation has been established and is on the right track to be continued. ++ This balance is needed to
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Bush is moving toward helping the Saudis develop a nuclear program under the guise of energy security. ++ Considering that Saudi Arabia bathes in oil and basks in sunlight, something is missing. ++ Adding a counterweight to Iran’s nuclear aspirations is what this is actually about. ++ The US should heed the lessons of history, that its addiction to oil spreads extremism and that adding nuclear
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For a long time Turkey has been a haven of geopolitical stability. ++ Yet the Iraq War has subjected Turkey’s virtually unquestioned alliance with the US to reassessment.++ Turkey’s general consensus on its EU candidacy has started crumbling because of the EU’s wavering.++ Turkey plays a crucial role in maintaining peace in the volatile Caucasus region and in promoting peace in the Middle East
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The personality of the US election winner will fundamentally shape transatlantic relations, but the fact remains that today the priorities of the EU and US differ more than ever before. ++ In the multipolar world that has succeeded the Cold War, there is no longer something “inevitable about the transatlantic alliance.” ++ Europeans who are dreaming of Obama as president should both temper their
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The recent easing of tensions in the Middle East, which is occurring without US mediation, reveals America’s loss of credibility and leverage. ++ Indeed, negotiations are taking place with groups and authorities the US boycotts - Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah. ++ Yet these are the only stakeholders that can offer Lebanon and Israel the compromises they really want. ++ The US has marginalized
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Bush’s unilateralism has created a rift in transatlantic relations that is unlikely to be fixed by the next US president, unless the EU and the US share a common threat. ++ McCain frames the authoritarian capitalism of China and Russia as the ideological antipode to liberal democracy. ++ If he were to follow through on his planned League of Democracies and the restructuring of the G8, this would
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The US position vis-a-vis Iran and North Korea has been weakened in the past several years, not out of a reluctance to engage in talks, or because of the emptiness of threats of using force, but because of a failure to formulate a clear-cut policy. ++ As the military option is unrealistic, America should focus on the many diplomatic and economic levers at its disposal. ++ John McCain’s refusal to
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Iran cannot be prevented from acquiring nuclear power capabilities. ++ The US should therefore favor negotiation with the regime over the current threats and sanctions driven policy which merely provides for hostile relations. ++ Since “a successful approach to Iran has to accommodate its security interests and ours,” strategic deterrence should prove effective. ++ Additionally, cooperation could
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The Qatari-brokered power sharing agreement between Lebanon’s feuding political factions puts into perspective the new Middle East power equation, in which the US is no longer a dominant factor and the rules are now being written by regional players. ++ The accord will succeed, precisely because it is grounded in realism and ignores idealistic and unreasonable American demands. ++ Even Israel,
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The foreign policy discussion between McCain and Obama has helped portray the former as uncompromising and the latter as visionary. ++ Since US strategy in Iraq has required diplomats to negotiate with Shiite militiamen, Sunni insurgents or Iranian counterparts for years now, the candidates’ debate regarding their respective approach to negotiation is both unrealistic and hypocritical. ++ In any
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At the Knesset plenum, Bush’s declarations regarding America’s political and military commitment to Israel’s defense were most promising. ++ Yet the Hezbollah’s recent take over of Lebanon was met with absolute silence on behalf of the US and its Allies. ++ “America is tired, emasculated, and torn on the inside. It can only provide its protectorates in the Middle East with words.” ++ Since the US
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In foreign policy, both Republicans and Democrats favor negotiation. ++ Yet McCain realizes “where diplomacy is appropriate, and where more fortitude is required” and this creates a distinction. ++ There are real downsides to the unconditional upholding of soft diplomacy. ++ Besides the cost of negotiation in terms of time and resources, it provides terrorists or leaders of state sponsors of
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During his last Middle East Tour, President Bush will have to accept the failure of his policies in the region. ++ Since Bush undertook to revive peace negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians at Annapolis in late 2007, no progress has been made. ++ The American hope for a Palestinian-Israeli agreement before the end of the year seems illusory. ++ The positions of Israeli negotiators
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Obama advocates leading open and direct negotiations with everyone, from Iran to Cuba. ++ His opposition to the Iraq war, his rational stance on Iran, and his “understanding of US imperialism” suggest he will reshape American foreign policy. ++ Yet Obama’s readiness to compromise does not apply to the Middle East. ++ Since Obama’s presidency would provide for high expectations, the predictable
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The US should continue its current path in North Korean nuclear negotiations, rather than exiting or stalling talks. ++ It should prioritize verification of North Korea’s plutonium production records, and push towards dismantlement of the Yongbyong reactor. ++ The US can then concurrently work towards confirming the extent of North Korean uranium enrichment, as well as the extent of its nuclear
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John McCain’s recent neoconservative foreign policy proposals are of questionable merit. ++ Reorganizing the G8 to the exclusion of Russia and China, will effectively render the organization irrelevant. ++ A League of Democracies on the other hand will impede cooperation with key nondemocratic strategic allies in areas such as terrorism and proliferation. ++ These propositions also put McCain at
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With high oil prices allowing authoritarian regimes to consolidate power, and US influence and moral authority in decline, the global trend towards democratization appears to be reversing. ++ This is particularly apparent in Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe clings to power by all means and attempts to subvert elections. ++ More than ever a proactive approach by the US is needed to work
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The end of the unipolar world is approaching. The unipolar world emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union when the bipolar era of the cold war came to an end. Yet just after one decade and a half of US supremacy, the international system is once again in the face of enormous tectonic change: In his recent essay for Foreign Policy, Richard N. Haass declares we live in a century of
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Decades of conflict have created economic, demographic, and political conditions that are compromising achieving peace in the Middle East. ++ Disincentives for the creation of two states are proving stronger than the rationale for peace. ++ Palestinians’ animosity toward Israel, their scarring experience of war and violence, the influence of Islamic groups, and the ever blurrier ethnic and
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Mc Cain aspires to redefining the US’s global role by creating a US-led “League of Democracies.” ++ Besides antagonizing Russia and China and ignoring the significance of their cooperation on environmental and nuclear issues, this idea appears as a means to circumvent the UN and raises widespread opposition among qualifying democracies. ++ Eventually, the project would be stalled by
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The election of Nicolas Sarkozy was a source of hope for the future of Franco-American and transatlantic relations. Sarkozy made no secret of his intention to kick start a new era of French foreign policy and effect a radical break away from a forty year old Gaullist anti-American tradition, loyally held up by his predecessor Jacques Chirac. Now nearly a year has gone by since the proclaimed
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In the prospect of US presidential elections all three candidates distance themselves from President Bush and promise more multilateralism in foreign policy and therefore burden sharing. ++ They forget that the US is the only hegemonic power and that the international community rests under the security umbrella of the US. ++ The next administration’s foreign policy will not be much more
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Recent Arab public opinion polls confirm a “gap between the aims of American policies and Arab public perceptions of the US.” ++ They also highlight that the US could improve its image by brokering peace between Palestine and Israel and by withdrawing from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. ++ While US policies are clearly opposed, middle ground could be found regarding democratic values and
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The growing strength of other states, the challenges to US foreign, energy, and economic policy, and globalization, which has diluted state control, have all contributed to ending the era of American dominance. ++ The new distribution of power will lead to multiplied threats, unstable relationships and a leadership vacuum. ++ Maintaining order in a non-polar world will require joint and astute
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The threats to US supremacy tend to be overstated. ++ China and Russia won’t achieve global domination while the post war arrangement goes on. ++ Yet to contain the progress of autocracy, protect and promote liberalism, and maintain its global power, the US should lead a democratic front within the framework of international institutions and cease discrediting its model with inappropriate
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US’s coercive tools - military might and economic leverage - have severely diminished due to failure in Iraq, expensive oil, and the rise of new industrial giants. ++ The next president needs to acknowledge the ineffectiveness of unilateral economic sanctions. ++ As major economic players like China readily deal with rogue states, a successful policy of containment requires widespread
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Partisan polarization over foreign policy is stronger than ever before. ++ A Democratic, rather European, vision of diplomacy is opposed to a Republican celebration of American exceptionalism and forceful great-power politics. ++ Partisanship scatters support, causes confusion, and hinders continuity and efficiency. ++ Future foreign policy “will suffer from a lack of certainty rather than an
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Henry A. Kissinger dampens hopes on the outcome of the meeting on the Palestinian peace process in Annapolis. Even if parties manage to agree on the Taba Plan of 2000—essentially Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders—the implementation remains uncertain. Israeli and Palestinian interlocutors have shaky domestic positions. Additionally, it needs to be clarified what the willingness by several
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