Although a majority of the EU and US experts polled by Atlantic-Community.org stated that Russia and the West share more common than diverging interests, only three out of twenty-one believe that these commonalities can be used encourage Russia into a strategic partnership with the West within the next three years.
More than a third of the experts believe that the West cannot turn Russia into a strategic partner at all. While half of the participants do not rule out a move towards a more cooperative relationship, they consider more time or even a change of government in Moscow a necessary precusor. These experts also mention a range of conditions which would need to be met for such a relationship to proceed. Many see room for improved cooperation, but would not go as far as using the term strategic partnership to describe it.
Dr. Andres Kasekamp from the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute states that there is "no hope with the current regime" in Moscow for the development of a strategic partnership between Russia and the West.
While Lukasz Kulesa from the Polish Institute of International Affairs sees the possibility of a different kind of relationship: "On the tactical level, there can be partnership(s) formed, but not a strategic one."
Sami Faltas, from the Center for European Security Studies in The Netherlands was not so positive. "You can define the term strategic partner anyway you like, but if you take it seriously, this seems unlikely," he said. Faltas did go on to say that he was convinced that the West's and Russia's "common interests outnumber and outweigh the conflicting interests. However, the conflicting interests are such that they are likely to often lead to serious political clashes."
Prof. Dr. Hans J. Giessmann, of the Berghof Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management in Germany, says that "the Russians seem more ready for [strategic partnership] than the US, although less enthusiastically than 15 years ago. In the short run two areas look particularly promising: arms control and non-proliferation. If the two succeed here this might set a solid starting point for more..."
A partnership is possible according to Milan Znoj from Charles University in the Czech Republic, "if there is good will on both sides." Dr. Hans-Georg Ehrhart from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Germany argues the EU and the United States "could convince Moscow by a coherent and long-term oriented approach based on openness and pragmatism."
Interestingly, Jan Závěšický of the International Institute of Political Science of Masaryk University in the Czech Republic suggests that the "US and EU and Russia have already been in a strategic partnership" and furthermore "they are broadly cooperating in a large scale of issues reaching from the economics, security, state of law, research and development, raw materials, [and] space programs."
Is the global economic crisis a window of opportunity to enhance cooperation between the US and the EU on the one side and Russia on the other side? Stay tuned for the experts' responses in the next installment of Atlantic-Community.org's four part expert survey to be published on Monday June 15, 2009.
Part I: Russian Mindset is Greatest Barrier to Improved Relationship with the West
Part II: A Future with Russia as a Strategic Partner?
Part III: Economic Crisis not Severe Enough to Change Kremlin Policy
Part IV: Broad EU Debate Needed on Russia's Role
Experts, who participated in the Atlantic-Community.org survey:
Katinka Barysch, Centre for European Reform, United Kingdo m
Dr. Michael Brzoska, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik, Germany
Janusz Bugajski, Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States of America
Leonidas Donskis, Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania
Dr. Hans-Georg Ehrhart, Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik, Germany
Sami Faltas, Centre for European Security Studies, The Netherlands
Dr. Hans J. Giessmann, Berghof Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management, Germany
Merijn Hartog, Centre for European Security Studies, The Netherlands
Andres Kasekamp, Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, Estonia
Lukasz Kulesa, Polish Institute of International Affairs, Poland
Teemu Naarajärvi, University of Helsinki, Finland
Marek Madej, Polish Institute of International Affairs, Poland
Dr. Jeffrey Mankoff, Yale University, United States of America
Maciej Mróz, University of Wroclaw, Poland
Heiko Pääbo, University of Tartu, Estonia
Luca Ratti, American University of Rome, Italy
Ivo Samson, Research Center of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, Slovak Republic
Eugeniusz Smolar, Center for International Relations, Poland
Elzbieta Stadtmuller, University of Wroclaw, Poland
Jan Závěšický, International Institute of Political Science of Masaryk University, Czech Republic
Milan Znoj, Charles University, Czech Republic
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June 9, 2009
amarjyoti acharya
Do Russians look at geography in such political terms, or rather such 'sociological' terms whose foundations are rather sketchy and barely traceable? The very envisaging of such 'block' formations usually betray a certain reticence. One remembers Carl Gustav Jung and wonders about many of his observations. He surely must have been grossly mistaken - or such 'block' visions are.
The willingness to carve the world out in such blocks usually would necessitate an expectation of other regions talking in similar terms. Sounds suspiciously like Samuel P. Huntington's seminal thesis of The Clash of Civilizations & the re-making of world order, minus his expansion of it - since it dealt with certain tendencies. A major aspect of such a tendency is this imagination of such 'block'.
But then Alan seems more sensitive and aware of a few things than people like me who look at the portal as a fair medium of exchange of views across the globe. The former Soviet Union and the comparison...
But yes, professional opinions apart, the issue is then more basic vis-a-vis the portal and the issue of international relations and the discipline of it. Perhaps, Carl Gustav Jung ...